Plausibility Check: Grossdeutchland?

Bohemia-Moravia granted autonomy.

Under what regime? OTL, their diets had German majorities until 1871. Do we get a situation like in Belgium, where the Walloons ran the place though the Flemings outnumbered them?



The German Empire is declared, which absolutely terrifies Britain.

Why? The Germany of 1871 is not a naval power, so is far less of a worry than a strong France would be. It's only a problem if she gives Russia strong backing in the Balkans, an area in which few Prussians are interested.
 
Under what regime? OTL, their diets had German majorities until 1871. Do we get a situation like in Belgium, where the Walloons ran the place though the Flemings outnumbered them?
My assumption is that there are Czech uprisings in Bohemia as well. But if you say that it's not realistic, I believe you. I have to admin I'm not very well-versed in Bohemian politics of the time.

Why? The Germany of 1871 is not a naval power, so is far less of a worry than a strong France would be. It's only a problem if she gives Russia strong backing in the Balkans, an area in which few Prussians are interested.
Why wouldn't it? While Britain was on good terms with Prussia IOTL, the main point of their policies concerning the mainland was ever to not let one single state acquire hegemonic status. Which Germany has just achieved. I'm not saying that Britain sees the writing on the wall the second the Germans open champagne in the Hall of Mirrors, but in a few years, when it becomes evident that the Reich will stay together and the industrial output starts to show, there will be some concerned voices in London. Of course this always depends on how bad their relations with the Russians are. After all, the Great Game is still in full swing.

I also made a note that Grossdeutschland may not expand so aggressively on the colonial scene, and would not seek naval parity with Britain, which might cool tensions. But this is not really the topic of the thread, I was just making a draft on how the greater Reich could form. The international reaction is another story.
 

Perkeo

Banned
But the joining of Austria/Sudetenland and Germany was explicitly forbidden by the treaty of Versailles. A Germany that keeps itself to those terms will never/take centuries to form GrossDeutschland.
If Austria wants to join Germany (which is not unlikely but not certain either), the question is not if but when Austria does join Germany.

The Treaty of Versailles was starting to decompose before the ink was dry and is - as far as the punitive measures are concerned - dead and buried by 1960 with or without another war.
 
My assumption is that there are Czech uprisings in Bohemia as well. But if you say that it's not realistic, I believe you. I have to admin I'm not very well-versed in Bohemian politics of the time.

The opportunity would be limited, as Bohemia was under Prussian occupation after Koniggratz, and geography suggests that it would soon be so again had A/H declared war in 1870.


I was just making a draft on how the greater Reich could form.

One way.

As hinted above, had Franz Josef yielded to temptation and intervened in the Franco-Prussian War, that could have produced it. True, Bismarck stated in his memoirs that he would have offered A-H easy terms after the first victories, but that was in hindsight, and it is actually far from certain that he could have done. In 1866 the King had been very displeased at having to let Austria off w/o loss of territory, and had Austria repaid his leniency by "stabbing him in the back" four years later, he would be in a flaming rage, and likely to insist at least on Bohemia, and maybe more. Contrary to what he liked posterity to believe, Bismarck was not all-powerful.

Also, Ludwig II of Bavaria was Prussia's ally, and might well demand Salzburg, Tyrol and maybe other bits as the price of joining Bismarck's new Reich. All of this could have left A-H too weak to hold together.
 
The opportunity would be limited, as Bohemia was under Prussian occupation after Koniggratz, and geography suggests that it would soon be so again had A/H declared war in 1870.
My PoD is 1848, way before the Austro-Prussian War.

One way.

As hinted above, had Franz Josef yielded to temptation and intervened in the Franco-Prussian War, that could have produced it. True, Bismarck stated in his memoirs that he would have offered A-H easy terms after the first victories, but that was in hindsight, and it is actually far from certain that he could have done. In 1866 the King had been very displeased at having to let Austria off w/o loss of territory, and had Austria repaid his leniency by "stabbing him in the back" four years later, he would be in a flaming rage, and likely to insist at least on Bohemia, and maybe more. Contrary to what he liked posterity to believe, Bismarck was not all-powerful.

Also, Ludwig II of Bavaria was Prussia's ally, and might well demand Salzburg, Tyrol and maybe other bits as the price of joining Bismarck's new Reich. All of this could have left A-H too weak to hold together.
I'm afraid we are talking about different things. You talk about an OTL Franco-Prussian War, which did not happen like that with the PoD I provided. Read my post again.

I also noted that my idea is just one of the many possibilities how the Greater Reich could form.
 
My PoD is 1848, way before the Austro-Prussian War.


I'm afraid we are talking about different things. You talk about an OTL Franco-Prussian War, which did not happen like that with the PoD I provided. Read my post again.

I also noted that my idea is just one of the many possibilities how the Greater Reich could form.


OTOH your post speaks of Prussian troops being greeted by cheering crowds in Vienna. If they have got that far they have presumably overrun Bohemia on the way.
 
Please read my post again. They did not "overrun" anything, they came as allies.


If they come as allies of Austria, they will certainly scotch any Czech stirrings along the way. FTM, even if they sided with the (German) revolution they would still support fellow-Germans against Slav rebels.
 
If they come as allies of Austria, they will certainly scotch any Czech stirrings along the way. FTM, even if they sided with the (German) revolution they would still support fellow-Germans against Slav rebels.
The Czech uprisings happen in 1848, leading to autonomy ióof Bohemia-Moravia in the Archduchy. The Prussian intervention happens in the 1860s, about the same time when the OTL Third Italian War of Independence and the Austro-Prussian War happened.
 
The Czech uprisings happen in 1848, leading to autonomy ióof Bohemia-Moravia in the Archduchy.

Which brings me back to my earlier question - autonomy under German rule or Czech?

If the latter [1], that means several million Germans have been put under a Slav government, something German-Austrians (even the most liberal ones) will not tolerate one second longer than they are forced to. The Austrian government (liberal or reactionary, on this point it makes little difference) will renege on such a concession at the first opportunity - probably long before 1860.


[1] Which in 1848 is almost certainly impossible anyway. A Czech revolt at that time would amount to little more than some student riots in Prague, which even the weakest Austrian government could suppress w/o even breathing hard.
 
Which brings me back to my earlier question - autonomy under German rule or Czech?

If the latter [1], that means several million Germans have been put under a Slav government, something German-Austrians (even the most liberal ones) will not tolerate one second longer than they are forced to. The Austrian government (liberal or reactionary, on this point it makes little difference) will renege on such a concession at the first opportunity - probably long before 1860.


[1] Which in 1848 is almost certainly impossible anyway. A Czech revolt at that time would amount to little more than some student riots in Prague, which even the weakest Austrian government could suppress w/o even breathing hard.
Ah, okay, now I get what you were trying to say :)

The autonomy is definitely under German (as in: Austrian-Habsburg) rule. That is why I used the word autonomy and not, say, Dualism. The new Archduchy would not be like Austria-Hungary, with the Czechs getting self-rule. They would just be given some recognition. I know that Czech nationalism has not kicked off at this point, and the large German population would mean that any revolution would have much worse chances than a Hungarian one. However, if Hungary successfully breaks away, it would surely embolden other minorities, and the Habsburg court facing total collapse might give some concessions, even proactively. Think something like Schleswig-Holstein in Denmark.
 
Ah, okay, now I get what you were trying to say :)

The autonomy is definitely under German (as in: Austrian-Habsburg) rule. That is why I used the word autonomy and not, say, Dualism. The new Archduchy would not be like Austria-Hungary, with the Czechs getting self-rule. They would just be given some recognition. I know that Czech nationalism has not kicked off at this point, and the large German population would mean that any revolution would have much worse chances than a Hungarian one. However, if Hungary successfully breaks away, it would surely embolden other minorities, and the Habsburg court facing total collapse might give some concessions, even proactively. Think something like Schleswig-Holstein in Denmark.

I'd have thought that one rather proved my point. The Danish government didn't make any concessions to the Germans of Schleswig, which was why they ended up losing it. But if they had made the concessions they would have offended Danish nationalist sentiment, and almost certainly fallen.

The Habsburgs would have been in a similar bind. If they made concessions to the Czechs, they would alienate the far more powerful Germans. OTL, Franz Josef was able to make some concessions in the 1870s, because the Germans were less preponderant in a bigger Austria which had reached a deal with Hungary. But in one where Hungary (and presumably Galicia) has fallen away, they are essentially left alone with the Germans, whom Czechs and Slovenes combined are nowhere near strong enough to challenge.
 
I'd have thought that one rather proved my point. The Danish government didn't make any concessions to the Germans of Schleswig, which was why they ended up losing it. But if they had made the concessions they would have offended Danish nationalist sentiment, and almost certainly fallen.

The Habsburgs would have been in a similar bind. If they made concessions to the Czechs, they would alienate the far more powerful Germans. OTL, Franz Josef was able to make some concessions in the 1870s, because the Germans were less preponderant in a bigger Austria which had reached a deal with Hungary. But in one where Hungary (and presumably Galicia) has fallen away, they are essentially left alone with the Germans, whom Czechs and Slovenes combined are nowhere near strong enough to challenge.

Fair point. So you think that even on the brink of collapse, Austria has no need to make concessions to the Czechs?

Not to derail the thread, but IIRC the Danes did give concessions to the Germans, the problem was when they integrated S-H to Denmark proper, even though the local Germans still had considerable autonomy.
 
Fair point. So you think that even on the brink of collapse, Austria has no need to make concessions to the Czechs?


I think they couldn't precisely because they were on the brink of collapse - to do so would have ****ed off a greater (and more influential) number of Germans.

FJ could (and did) make such concessions in the 1870s, when the crisis was past and he had bought off the Hungarians. But in 1848 doing so would only have made his problems worse, esp as at that time the Czech nationalists were too weak to offer him much help even if he had won them over.

Not to derail the thread, but IIRC the Danes did give concessions to the Germans, the problem was when they integrated S-H to Denmark proper, even though the local Germans still had considerable autonomy.

I wasn't aware of any concessions. Iirc they even wanted all education in Schleswig to be in Danish, though more than half its population was German.
 
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