Originally Posted by Eurofed
That is the reason why an Italian victory (which is rather easy as a PoD, it just requires a couple changes in the Italian high command, the
quality of the army as a whole was good) is the most feasible way to do it. It provides extra success that is additional to and independent
from the Prussian one.
In retrospect i think this is realistic, and i'm sorry i seemed to dismiss it. However i would say this. The figure who is changed at the top, will
need to be a real strong, firebrand - an Ironside - . He will have to have the moral authority through strength of personality, - a war hero ? -
and official authority from the prime minister/ minister of war/ king , to carry out sweeping changes. He needs to be able to sack swathes
of officers and replace them with better material, he needs to be able to enforce a tough and comprehensive retraining of the new officer
corps. He might be assisted by a Prussian or French military mission. This may need to be bought about by a disaster fed limited
revolution.
Originally Posted by Snake Featherston
Here we go again-Austria-Hungary was not a house of cards that would collapse after a single military or political defeat. Were this so then the 1914 defeats at the hands of Tsarism would lead to your Grossdeutschland. Were this so particularly the 1916 defeats would have destroyed the Empire. Austria-Hungary does not exist to make Germany bigger.
I dont know how you persist with missing the blindingly obvious contradiction in your own argument. You keep talking about Austria-Hungary being tough and resilient. And i'm talking about a situation where Austria might collapse. See the difference, Austria wasn't resilient enough to hold down the Hungarians. In 1848 she needed Russian assistance, what might have happened had she not had that assistance. Consider the number of her nationals, Czechs and others who went over to the enemy in WW1. In1866 after the Prussian victory at koniggratz there was widespread though muted discontent across the Austrian Empire. So Austria caved in to the Hungarians. The fact that your talking about Austria Hungary is proof enough that Austria could have collapsed in the late 1860's. I think the Italian victory scenario is plausible, it might have caused Italian areas to revolt, what then.
Originally Posted by Snake Featherston
Thing is it did concede that and the same pattern would recur in this scenario but moreso. Contrary to the fervent wish of militaristic Wehrmacht fanboys the Habsburg dynasty was pretty flexible at preserving power
I hope this is not some insult aimed at me, if it is, it's purile, immature and pathetic. That someone is a Whermact fanboy simply because they explore the possibility of Austria collapsing in the 1860's is a snidey and spiteful response, it makes we wonder what you are doing here.
Also AH was the only state that went to war to save itself from collapse, what a tradegy that Europe was drawn into the slaughter of WW1 for the sake of an empire that belonged in historys dustbin. All the other powers were drawn in not for survival but due to commitments. There was no danger that large swathes of the civil popualtion of France, Italy, Germany or Prussia were going to break away and form independent states. Austria-Hungary was held together by military force, if Germany had stood back AH would have been doomed. Not so for any other power. All the other powers had a reasonable chance of survival without any other power backing them. Your claims of AH resilience are devoid of reality. They were dependent on German backing and that allowed them to punch well above their weight. Without the German alliance AH would have had to surrender to Serb demands.
They wouldn't have stood a cat in hells chance on their own. How you could argue otherwise is beyond me. A challenge, describe how in an Austro-Russian war ( without Germany behind AH ) Austria triumphs, and i will explain how Austria is beaten and then falls apart like a rickety old shack in storm.
Originally Posted by Eurofed
But in the 1860s Russia is not yet fostering Pan-Slavism as a proxy, much less so against the Habsburg. As it concerns Italy, its demands are on territories that do not belong to Hungary. The Ausgleich may fail because IOTL it was a close enough thing with OTL levels of defeat in 1866; a worse defeat would more severely discredit the Habsburg and push the Hungarians to make more radical demands.
The First Pan-Slav Congress, was held in Prague, 1848. Serbia had been in existance for decades. As soon as she gained independence
she began seeking expansion and unity of all the Southern Slavs not under Serbian rule. This placed Serbia at odds with Austria, RussiaRussia had for many decades had the entrance from the Black Sea to the Med as a goal, thus it's gaze was on the Balkans. Russia actively campaigned against The Ottomans for Serb independence and was active in Serb affairs during the late Napoleonic period. Decades of pro Serb activity by Russia led to the idea of Russia - champion of the Slavs, it didn't arise out of the blue, but was observable after decades of Russian involvement in the Balkans.
See Russia's Balkan Entanglements, 1806-1914 By Barbara Jelavich.
The collapse/dismemberment of Austria might take a year or a decade, or longer. It's pointless arguing about it without a concrete agreed scenario. Yes every historical event is part of many chains, with chains linked to chains. Each event is also a product of social forces often ignored by historians who dont wish to illustrate the influence of the masses. In 1867 conservative Austria conceded something unthinkable just a decade before, power sharing with the Hungarians. Why use Russian troops in 1848 and then concede independence less than 20 years later. They were frightened that the use of force against the Hungarians might start a fire that could become a conflageration. The forces of Revolution were always threatening to simmer, consider the growth of unions, Feminism, Socialist organisations, Darwinism...... Its an age of potential revolution across all spheres and the leaders of the powers and their advisors know it or face peril.
The GW1870 is agood scenario for the dismemberment of Austria. But we have to get past some obstacles.
Austria wont attack Prussia unless France is more active in the offensive, a small victory over the Prussians in the Rhineland might be enough. Austria knows she may well face Prussia and Russia, possibly Italy as well. So she needs the French to fire the starting gun.
As discussed in previous threads, Austria turns down Napoleon's offer of alliance because Italy wont join. Austria doesnt want to be fighting 3 powerful states. Italy cant countenance alliance with France while Rome is occupied by the French. We need a scenario where the Rome problem is not an issue for France and Italy.
Another scenario for Austrian collapse is the Austro-Prussian wr is delayed till 1867 and the Austrians use brutality to bring the Hungarians into line.