This is my favourite discussion.
Here's an idea I had, after looking over some old threads.
Napoleon III is either more imperialistic (France falls under some sort of other right-wing imperialist government) and intervenes in the Austro-Prussian war of 1866. The Franco-Austrian alliance inflicts a major defeat against Prussia, which is effectively pared down to just historic Prussia, Brandenburg, and Pommeriania. Austria gets Silesia back, and France, in a moment of cleverness, gives the Rhineland and Westphalia to Bavaria (thus greatly enlarging Bavaria but also giving it a long border vulnerable to France-France hopes this threat will force Bavaria to ally with them, thus giving them a friendly and relatively powerful German state to work with). France annexes Saarland and gets a promise from Austria and Bavaria not to interfere should it try to aquire Luxembourg from the Netherlands. Bavaria and Austria kick Prussia out of the German Confederation and, in order to protect against any Prussian revanchism, strengthen it into a "German Union", with a common foreign policy, free trade area, common navy, and common army command during wartime. On paper it's somewhat similar to the OTL German Empire, however unlike the German Empire, which was dominated by Prussia, the German Union is much more of a partnership between Bavaria (+Rhineland) and Austria, with all this entails-both states maintain separate armies, and any major decision has to have the consent of both the Bavarian king and the Austrian Emperor (the head of the Union). Complicating this further is Austria's Hungarian appendage, which (similar to OTL), gets a parliament and self-rule in internal affairs, while its military and foreign policy remain controlled by Austria. The massive disaster in Prussia causes an attempted revolution, which almost succeeds in toppling the government before Russia intervenes and puts it down.
This is i think unrealistic, it's too grand. First Bavaria isn't suddenly going to want to be lumbered with responsibility for Westphalia, the Italian's are going to be up in arms about it, so is everyone else, including the German states. The peace of 1815 was carefully constructed to try to lessen the chance of a Frech dominated Rhineland again. Britain won't allow it, and would be easily able to threaten/blackmale France in the maritime sphere. Any scenario that has Austria unifying Germany as a triumphant victor has the problem the other German states will be inclined to demand Austria jettison territories like Galicia. Then there is the problem of Hungary. Austria victorious is not going to give up territory, and it can't both hold Hungary and deepen it's membership of Germany.
Yep. Basic event chain: Prussian victory at Sadowa and Italian victory at Custoza. Prussia gets OTL stuff, Saxony, Austrian Silesia, and northern-central Sudetenland; Italy gets Veneto, Trento, South Tyrol, Gorizia-Gradisca, and Dalmatia; Austria is thoroughly humiliated and destabilized. The NGF is created. The Ausgleich fails or proves ineffective. The Italo-Prussian alliance is confirmed. France goes to war with it over Luxemburg and Rome in 1867-68, and gets its butt on a plate. The German Empire is created. Germany gets Elsass-Lotharingen and Luxemburg. Italy gets Nice, Savoy, and Corsica. There is a surge of Pan-German sentiment among Austrian Germans, while the Hungarians get ever more restive. The Hasburg empire collapses and is partitioned between Germany (Austria proper, Bohemia-Moravia, Slovenia), Italy (Istria), Hungary (lands of St. Stephen, Croatia), and Russia (Galicia, Bukovina).
This i think is too quick and too much like wishful thinking, the Three Emperors do not want Austria to collapse into it's various nationalisms. How does the Ausgleich fail ?. Why ?. A factor here is Hungary may want some freedom, but it also doesn't wnt to left alone in a world where Italy, Russias Balkan friends and therefore Russia herself have demands on her. Hungaries independence rests on it being her only option.
Since the French revolution, leaders of the powers of Europe have had a new dimension complicating their policy and actions, and haunting their minds. Mass rebellion, dont underplay this. Mass rebellion united under the banner of Nationalism caused the victorious Napoleon III to halt in Italy, and offer the Austrians moderate terms. July 1859.
" The reasons for this breakdown on the part of the emperor in the midst of his apparent triumph were many. Neither Magenta nor Solferino had been decisive battles. Further, his idea of a federation was menaced by the revolutionary movement which seemed likely to drive out all the princes of central Italy, and to involve him in an unwelcome dispute with the French clerical party. "
There is also the "the spectre of communism" haunting Europe,
" All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre.... ".
Do not underestimate the power of these factors, Kings, Emperors, Republicans, Monarchists, Liberal and Conservative ministers, all are relatively united by their fear of mass rebellion. They are forced to tread much more carefully, lest they stir up forces that will overwhelm them. Remember that they're not going to jump at any chance for war, the Napoleonic period has taught them that modern war is much more unpredictable, they are all very frightened men. Napoleon III's oscillations are a fine example of a leader being buffeted by the various growing forces and tensions. If Austria defeats Prussia in 1866 she is likely to not make any great revolutionary changes. To get to big Germany, there is one key obstacle to overcome, Austria in her form of 1866. Austria cant become part of a united Germany along with Galicia and the Italian territories. Bohemia Moravia is less of a problem as by this point i think prague is still predominanently German, and the whole two states are German enough to not be a major problem. ( Maybe concessions to Czech speakers - whatever ? ) And Hungary has to some how demand full independence. Russia has to somehow want Galicia, and European affairs have to be inclined to allow her to have it. Likewise Italy has to attain the Austro Italian territories. So Austria has to be dismembered or crumble.
One possible scenario for German unity is that Bismarck does not get his war of 1866, allowing the Bavarian led plans for Federal reform to take more center stage. This may need Italy to have previously more fully attained its goals vis a vis Austria. Austria then can demobilize on the Italian front, so Bismarck is robbed of his excuse for accusing Austria of insincerity in the disarmament talks, no war in 1866, and the Federal reform talks are back on track. Austrian involvement in this large confederation heightens the movement for Hungarian independence. So no war of 1866, and France attacks - maybe 1867 - due to fear that the German Confederation is advancing too rapidly in a Federalist direction. This could allow a scenario where Austria fights with France, so allowing rebellion in the German Austrian areas. Know we can get increased fears and aspirations of Hungarians, so we get a more robust Nationalistic uprising in Hungary which breaks away. Problem does Russia invade Hungary, possibly unlikely as Russia is much weaker and more disorganised than in 1848. However she siezes Galicia - shes on Prussias side - to pre-empt a Polish uprising. Italy takes her chance and attacks Austria. The Prussian led German coalition of armies defeats France. It doesnt have to be complete like 1870, so we have no annexation of Alsace-Lorraine. Austria has collapsed, been partly dismembered. France asks for peace - Maybe Napoleon III is killed on the battlefield. Left behind as the dust settles, is an independent Hungary, Russia is occupying Galicia, Italy is occupying trieste and Trento. The German Confederation holds a conference on Federal integration - includes Austria -, know we dont end up with states like Bavaria clinging on to their own army. Unification is deeper as Prussia is less dominant.
Another scenario is to butterfly Bismarck away, replacing him with a nationalist, who - lets say we still get the 1866 war - doesn't demand that Austria be excluded from Germany, and does not annexe any territory or states to Prussia, this is difficult due to the glory and power hungary Prussian Monarchy and Junkers. However moving on, this peace without annexation and Austria not been excluded allow for a larger Confederation, including all the South German states and Austria, with Prussia dominant but not overwheling. This again placates the fears of the South German states. As above France invades, and Austria betrays the Confederaation with results similar to the above scenario.
Yet another is to have a power base develop in the West independent of Prussia and Austria, problem is it will need Westphalia, and Prussia has it. Which takes us back to how the Napoleonic wars end. Maybe we can have a scenario where Napoleon can negotiate some concessions, so that Prussia does not get any Rhine territories allowing for the construction of a 3rd power based in the West, and independent of Prussia and Austria. If Austria can come out out of the Napoleonic period having had to cede Hungarian independence, then this nicely balances Prussias reduced power. This makes it easier to have an alliance of smaller German states able to fend off Austria and Prussia.This however would need major changes to the end of the Napoleonic wars.
Finally, theres the General War of 1870 i've seen on this site. This is interesting also. Austria attacks Prussia in 1870, and again we get an independent Hungary ........ There are two problems i have with this scenario, one is that Austria wont attack Prussia unless france is more aggressive or victorious. So maybe France lunges quickly into the Rhineland so drawing Austria in off the fence. The other is Italy, Austria is less likely to budge if Italy is a danger to her rear.
As an addition if Prussia is defeated by France, any attempt on Austrias part to exploit this will likely increase animosity to her from those holding German Nationalistic sentiments.
