Plausibility Check: French/Little Entente war with Nazi Germany in 1938.

Germany wouldn't give away its territory (Upper Silesia, southeren East Prussia) and look the other way as Poland annexes Gdansk - and that's the only concessions Poland are interested in.

Also Poland and France have a mutual defence treaty, while Poland and Germany have only a non-aggression one. Not mentioning the francophillia of most of the Polish elite and society.

In short in case of war between France and Germany Poland will come on side of France and will attack Germany.


well Germany is not ready for a two front war, and this being 1938 and all. still no pact with the soviets, maybe instead of Poland, the germans look further east to the soviets to put pressure on Poland to stay out of things.

just saying that one on one france / Germany might be a more fair fight. just one is going to have a fair amount of butterflies to get this going in the first place, maybe some of those work in Germanys favor.

not that I would like to see the Nazis survive anyway, but also wouldn't want to see them loosing upper Silesia and the eastern portions of Prussia. Danzig is another story as technically it is an international open city.

hell maybe leadership change at this point would be the best thing as long as Gross Germany remained intact.
 
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well Germany is not ready for a two front war, and this being 1938 and all. still no pact with the soviets, maybe instead of Poland, the germans look further east to the soviets to put pressure on Poland to stay out of things.

In 1938 Soviets were on side of Czechoslovakia. And nazi Germany is still their enemy - in Spain and elsewhere. They won't pressure Poland to give Germany free hand with Czechoslovakia. That's one contorsion too much even for Soviet propaganda.

just saying that one on one france / Germany might be a more fair fight. just one is going to have a fair amount of butterflies to get this going in the first place, maybe some of those work in Germanys favor.

not that I would like to see the Nazis survive anyway, but also wouldn't want to see them loosing upper Silesia and the eastern portions of Prussia. Danzig is another story as technically it is an international open city.

hell maybe leadership change at this point would be the best thing as long as Gross Germany remained intact.

I don't believe that Germany well-being is what OP is looking for. Or fair fight.
 
In 1938 Soviets were on side of Czechoslovakia. And nazi Germany is still their enemy - in Spain and elsewhere. They won't pressure Poland to give Germany free hand with Czechoslovakia. That's one contorsion too much even for Soviet propoaganda.



I don't believe that Germany well-being is what OP is looking for. Or fair fight.
well then Germany has problems :)

as it would be hard pressed either way, but both .. eh.. Germany is screwed

said result would make Germany even more angry and felt slighted and picked upon
 
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Poland is not going to immediately jump on Germany. First they will press their claims on Czeckoslovakia.
Sigh.

No, if France jumps on Germany, Poland will as well, regardless of whether some agreement with Czechoslovakia is reached or no.

Is it really that hard to comprehend that Upper Silesia & East Prussia & Gdansk are more important to Poland than Cieszyn? That Poland was allied to France and NOT to Germany?
 
Sigh.

No, if France jumps on Germany, Poland will as well, regardless of whether some agreement with Czechoslovakia is reached or no.

Is it really that hard to comprehend that Upper Silesia & East Prussia & Gdansk are more important to Poland than Cieszyn? That Poland was allied to France and NOT to Germany?

Germany and Japan were allied, but that meant nothing for Barbarossa. Poland was an opportunistic actor just like everyone else and will grab what it can. Even if France goes to war over Czechoslovakia, which is far from a given, in 1938 WWII as we know it is far from inevitable. It will be a German-Czech war with a phony war on the western front, likely leading to a ceasefire and an alt-Munich. In fact, if the Soviets overreact, it will solidify a German-Polish alliance.
 
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Germany and Japan were allied, but that meant nothing for Barbarossa. Poland was an opportunistic actor just like everyone else and will grab what it can. Even if France goes to war over Czechoslovakia, which is far from a given, in 1938 WWII as we know it is far from inevitable. It will be a German-Czech war with a phony war on the western front, likely leading to a ceasefire and an alt-Munich. In fact, if the Soviets overreact, it will solidify a German-Polish alliance.
Well I don't see the soviets jumping Poland, baltics maybe, but not Poland. Poland can hold its own and the soviets know that
 
Well I don't see the soviets jumping Poland, baltics maybe, but not Poland. Poland can hold its own and the soviets know that

The USSR isnt just going to randomly invade anyone. Theyre going to ship huge quantities of weaponry to the Czechs and cancel the non-aggression pact with Poland.
 
well THe Soviets didn't fare well against the polish the last time around and that is fresh in their memory.


one thing that seems to be neglected here and granted the Nazis need to go, but they will find or look for some way to make some deal that creates a balance.

plus the soviets wanted the Baltic states.

maybe the Nazis decide to pull back on czechia ( doubtful ) but hittler knows he can not have a war with france on frances terms. even if it does take france a bit to gear up for a war, I am not sure if hittler can suppress czechia in short order and turn everything around to go hold the border against france.

hitler was a gambler, but I don't think if france was as the OP says serious about protecting czechia and treaty terms, would risk a seriously pissed off france before he is ready. and in 38 he knew he wasn't.

hell he even calculated right in 39, france nor anyone came to polands rescue, and he had time to then contemplate taking france out because of inaction on the western front
 
Germany and Japan were allied, but that meant nothing for Barbarossa.

If you're talking about Anti-Comintern Pact, it wasn't a military alliance. It wasn't even directly aimed against USSR, but Comintern.

The only military agreement between Germany and Japan (and Italy) was the Three-Power Pact - aimed against USA. And Germany did declare war after USA ended in war against Japan.

It will be a German-Czech war with a phony war on the western front, likely leading to a ceasefire and an alt-Munich.

You're copy-pasting OTL into ATL, without considering changed circumstances (Germany ITTL with hostile Poland would end effectively with 3-front war, not mentioning that French may actually start a serious offensive in the west)

In fact, if the Soviets overreact, it will solidify a German-Polish alliance.

There was no German-Polish alliance.

If you believe otherwise, please point me to the relevant treaty.

There was a French-Polish Alliance (since 1921).
 

Deleted member 94680

Sigh.

No, if France jumps on Germany, Poland will as well, regardless of whether some agreement with Czechoslovakia is reached or no.

Is it really that hard to comprehend that Upper Silesia & East Prussia & Gdansk are more important to Poland than Cieszyn? That Poland was allied to France and NOT to Germany?

After the War Winston Churchill, compared Germany and Poland to vultures, saying: "over a question so minor as Teschen, they sundered themselves from all those friends in France, Britain and the United States who had lifted them once again to a national, coherent life, and whom they were soon to need sorely. ... It is a mystery and tragedy of European history that a people capable of every heroic virtue, gifted, valiant, charming, as individuals, should repeatedly show such inveterate faults in almost every aspect of their governmental life."

Czechoslovakia was easier to dismember than Germany, Poland wanted land from Czechoslovakia so Poland 'jumped' on Czechoslovakia. In the immeadiate calculations of the age, Poland might well see more benefit for themselves in taking land from Czechoslovakia and keeping Germany on-side (against the constant worry of Russian aggression) than attacking Germany (leaving themselves open to a two-front War if the Russians attacked) on the basis that France would sweep Germany away.

It's entirely possible if the Franco-German War turns badly for Germany, the Poles may well attack then but I don't see them going in from the get-go.
 
After the War Winston Churchill, compared Germany and Poland to vultures, saying: "over a question so minor as Teschen, they sundered themselves from all those friends in France, Britain and the United States who had lifted them once again to a national, coherent life, and whom they were soon to need sorely. ... It is a mystery and tragedy of European history that a people capable of every heroic virtue, gifted, valiant, charming, as individuals, should repeatedly show such inveterate faults in almost every aspect of their governmental life."

That's a personal opinion of Churchill. Not a fact.

Czechoslovakia was easier to dismember than Germany, Poland wanted land from Czechoslovakia so Poland 'jumped' on Czechoslovakia.

It's not that Czechoslovakia was easier to dismember. Just that Polish territorial grievancies with it were possible to be solved at that moment, while those with Germany weren't.

If France&UK bothered to defend Czechoslovakia and not throw it to the wolfes situation would be rather different, don't you think?

In the immeadiate calculations of the age, Poland might well see more benefit for themselves in taking land from Czechoslovakia and keeping Germany on-side (against the constant worry of Russian aggression) than attacking Germany (leaving themselves open to a two-front War if the Russians attacked) on the basis that France would sweep Germany away.

In the end of 1938 USSR had a pro-Czechoslovak posturę. Ribbentrop-Molotov was still a year in the OTL future. So ITTL USSR would not attack Poland, because it would be acting hostile to Czechoslovakia.

Also, Poland didn't count on Germany helping it against USSR, so there was no keeping it on-side.

It's entirely possible if the Franco-German War turns badly for Germany, the Poles may well attack then but I don't see them going in from the get-go.

Franco-Polish Alliance.

Francophillism of Polish elites & society.

Long-time desire for Upper Silesia, Gdansk & East Prussia.

You seem to be willfully ignoring those.
 

Deleted member 94680

That's a personal opinion of Churchill. Not a fact.
I know it's an opinion of Churchill (who was favoured of 'bending' historical recollections to suit his current agenda) hence why it's in quotations. The fact, however, remains that the Polish did do those things that Churchill is opining on.



Franco-Polish Alliance.

Francophillism of Polish elites & society.

Long-time desire for Upper Silesia, Gdansk & East Prussia.

You seem to be willfully ignoring those.

Not at all, those things exist in fact. But none of those prevented the German-Polish Non-Agression Treaty from being signed in 1934. The Silesian, Prussian and Gdansk/Danzig issues were all satisfactorily resolved (or at least to the point where the Contracting Parties felt they could put a 10 year life on the Treaty).
This possible ATL would take place in 1938, so imho Poland wouldn't attack Germany unless the situation allows for a quick Polish victory.
 
If you're talking about Anti-Comintern Pact, it wasn't a military alliance. It wasn't even directly aimed against USSR, but Comintern.

And the Comintern was associated with whom, Mongolia?

The only military agreement between Germany and Japan (and Italy) was the Three-Power Pact - aimed against USA. And Germany did declare war after USA ended in war against Japan.


My point is that Germany and Japan were allies. The Franco-Polish alliance was a defensive alliance aimed at Germany and the Soviet Union. Your claim that Poland would immediately attack Germany if it found itself at war with France ignores this. Poland has no obligations when France goes to war.

You're copy-pasting OTL into ATL, without considering changed circumstances (Germany ITTL with hostile Poland would end effectively with 3-front war, not mentioning that French may actually start a serious offensive in the west)

Youre making a lot of faulty assumptions. In 1938, France is even less prepared for a war with Germany than it was in 1939. Why is France going to do anything other than what it did when Poland was invaded? More importantly, why is Poland going to fight France's war for no reason?


There was no German-Polish alliance.

No, but there will be if the Soviets follow through on the threats they made OTL when Poland invaded Teschen.
 
The matter of whether or not Poland invades Germany isn't critical to the outcome of the war. Even if the Czechs capitulate, so long as they aren't freely handing over everything they had like in OTL, then it's only a matter of months before the Germans run out of every critical resource and get steamrolled by the French.

Once the French are at war, the political will to win will increase and there will be offensives into Germany. If you've read Blunted Sickle, it makes it quite apparent how in OTL the French woke up to the reality of war, but just didn't have the time to get into gear. Here, they can't get blitzed.
 
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