plausibility check: ethiopia controls eritrea, somalia and djbouti

Is it plausible for Ethiopia to have control of the above nations?

Depends when and how really. Post 1880, or thereabouts?

Eritrea: Definitely, half of it was part of Abyssinia anyhow until 1889/1890, and the British had promised them the rest before the Italians grabbed it. As long as you can think of a decent reason for it to happen, it's very easy to do.

Djibouti: More difficult; the French grabbed Obock as early as the 1860s, and were likely to try and expand if the Abyssinians tried too hard to grab extra bits. That said, the borders could be adjusted consideraby from OTL, perhaps just leaving France with the northern part of Tajoura Bay and giving the rest to Abyssinia.

Somalia: Depends which bit. Somaliland (as in British) would be simple; the Egyptians held it until 1884 and then evacuated, handing it over to local rulers. The British might be tempted (although they'd need a bloody good reason) to turn the whole coast over to the Abyssinians as long as the meat deliveries to Aden (the only reason the area was occupied in the first place) continued as before. That said, the Abyssinians would have to fight very hard to control the region, and I suspect it would consume so many of their energies as to make the rest of Somalia (Italian Somaliland, if you like) too much to swallow.

Bear in mind that even OTL Abyssina expanded hugely, had to spend a lot of effort holidng its conquests down, and even then only controlled vast swathes of territory- particularly in the Ogaden- in name only right up to the Italian conquest. Expansion along the Red Sea coast is one thing, but Abyssinian Mogadishu would be very unlikely indeed.
 
maybe ethiopia decides to industrialise in the 1840s and is given its own sphere of influence in africa by the time of the berlin conference.
 
maybe ethiopia decides to industrialise in the 1840s and is given its own sphere of influence in africa by the time of the berlin conference.

Not likely, that would require a more powerful and united Abyssinian state and one that would leave the medieval mentality earlier. Also one has to take into account that in order to industrialize one must have acsess to mineral resources Ethiopia does have coal and iron ore as well as copper, nickle, potash,and sulfur deposits but in order for them to acquire the ability to exploit such resources as early as the 1880's one would need to have the Ethiopian state be united under a strong line of leaders as early as the 1820's remember Ethiopia was not fully united as we understand it till the 1890's even then the state was sub divided along clan lines.

One HUGE change would be that Emporer Fasilides does not chase the Europeans out in the 1630's and Ethiopia does not go isolationist thus keeping it in contact with Europe and what ever European technology the can get their hands on. So in theory you need a few things to achieve a powerful, large, and stable Abyssinian empire.

1. The Europeans are never expelled and the Abyssinians never goes isolationist.

2. The Abyssinians are able to adpat European technology in order to conquer the surrounding regions and subdue them prior to the scramble for Africa.

3. Cut back the reliance on the forest and agriculture as that is a major handicap to the Ethiopians as deforestation and the subsiquent over use of the water supplies actually to this day has a major effect on the Ethiopian economy.

4. Above all you need a line of stable strong emporers that are able to squash the clan mentality and enforce a code of law that allows the state to effectivly govern. With out that all the technology and economic advances are moot as the Abyssinian Empire will collapse into civil war as soon as a strong leader dies or the Europeans start to meddle in Abyssinian afairs by supporting rival clans. The state must be strong enough to enforce the law, keep order, and protect its self from negative out side influence.
 
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