Plausibility check: Czechoslovakia defeats Germany alone

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13. There was one funny option one Czech AH history author proposed. Hold the lines in the west of Czech lands and slowly retreat from prepared positions to prepared position. Concentrate part of the Armor in Slovakia and strike against Wienna. Area was hold at the time only by light force. Other part of concentrated armor would strike against Guderian forces which would be cut off by above mentioned dams from retreating to Austria. Of course. In his case everything went good for Czechoslovaks. On other side, why not? German fast victory over France seemed impossible before it become reality. ;)

I believe I forgot few more things I wanted to mention after reading all the posts, but it is to late and it was pretty hard day at work today.

Sorry to bump a late thread but I have a question I haven't seen asked -

Based on this idea, and given how early it is after Anschluss, if Czechoslovakia can pull off the above-mentioned counter-attack and threaten Vienna, what are the possibilities of an Austrian mutiny?
 
As a kinda-sorta native that has studied such allohistorical scenarios closely, I will only say this :

Czechoslovakia defeating Germany alone ? :eek: HELL NO ! :D

I think this is a perfect sample of the thinking that brought France and UK to appeasement. Look how Germany is big ? Look how Czechoslovakia is big ? The latter has no chance, Hitler would prevail.

But there are few points that are usually not taken in consideration :

- Fall Grün asked for sneaky attack to prevent Czechoslovak mobilisation. However the mobilisation was completed with 1 million soldiers ready. Germany had no attack plan for a case of enemy in a full strength.

- Hitler was asking for an attack to happen no longer than 10/1/1938. Wehrmacht was not ready for that date even if instead of Munich talks they had a week to get to positions. They either had to postpone the start (unlikely with Hitler at helm) or face prospect of attacking with incomplete army.

- There was no mandatory army service in Germany in thirties, meaning a large amount of men had no training. Germany needed time to cope with this, Wehrmacht of 38 was no Wehrmacht of 39 in Poland or even one of 40 in France.

- German logistics was a mess at that time. All the transports to support attack from South needed to go through Linz, making it ideal target that would hamper the German attack seriously. Czech transfer routes were much shorter.

- There was no way around the fortification system. Germans had to find a way through the bunkers. They would find it eventually but their initial casualties would be enormous and progress would be minimal. Those dead soldiers would be of no use in further battles, highlighting the above points.

It is believed that Czechoslovak Air Force was no match for Luftwaffe. If the war started in 10/1938, there are few additional points to consider:

- Luftwaffe was short on pilots. Many of them had just a basic training, no advanced fighting etc. They would operate over enemy territory, so any shot-down would mean the pilot is lost. This proved to be an important factor in Battle of Britain.

- Bf-109 monoplanes were just recently introduced. There were multiple versions of them (B/C/D) making the task of keeping them in service extremely difficult (lack of spare parts, experience of mechanics), pilots were not yet trained for battle on monoplanes and wet weather with muddy airfields would be bigger trouble for modern, heavier planes.

- Early Bf-109 versions (especially the Bf-109 B, which was the most frequent one in 10/1938) had weak engine and just two machine guns, so it was actually underpowered and under-gunned compared to Czechoslovakian Avia B-534. They were slightly faster, but the difference was not that big.

- Luftwaffe was still in older system. New one, for which it was praised in WW II was only to be introduced in Winter 38/39

- Biplane fighters (Arado Ar-68 and to some extent even Heinkel He-51 - former fighter in ground attack role) were still part of front line Luftwaffe. If there were any troubles with keeping Bf-109 operating, biplanes would be still important factor. Arados were inferior to Avias

- Weather was shitty, and plan to destroy Czechoslovak Air Force on the ground was prevented by distributing the planes to field airfields.

- Germany had very limited supply of bombs, ammunition and petrol (in that order). If they depleted the resources, there even might be a Czech air superiority after a couple of weeks, however unlikely it might sound.


Those are all quite important factors, yet most of the people tend to study map, see how Germany is big, take their success in 39-41 into consideration and proclaim them victors in 1938 too.
 
Those are all quite important factors, yet most of the people tend to study map, see how Germany is big, take their success in 39-41 into consideration and proclaim them victors in 1938 too.

Exactly. Hitler didn't study map in 1939/40 and it brought Germany victory against France.
 
Once a friend of mine, who was very proud of his Slovak heritage. He was a fellow history grad student. Told me how Czechoslavika could have defeated Germany in 1938. He borrowed the Israeli playbook from 29 years later. He had the Czechoslovak Air Force destroy the Luftwaffe.
 
The Germans proved adept at both defeating fortifications (Maginot Line and Eban Emael in 1940) and circumventing difficult mountainous terrain (Norway, Crete, Greece), and all against numerically ally superior opposition. Combine this with the Luftwaffe's total dominance in 1938, and the advantages seem to lie heavily with Germany. Also, the Czech ranks would have contained many Sudeten German sympathisers.
 
The Germans proved adept at both defeating fortifications (Maginot Line and Eban Emael in 1940)
However at that time Wehrmacht lacked heavy artillery, according to Wehrmacht tests in 1939 artillery they had wasn't able penetrate Czechoslovak bunkers and Germans didn't defeated Maginot line.

Eban Emael was indeed great success for German paras. However they were not in actions afterwards and German paras in 1938 were not paras of 1940. Part of what they had available was still in training.

and circumventing difficult mountainous terrain (Norway, Crete, Greece), and all against numerically ally superior opposition.

Indeed Germans showed how they can circumventing difficult mountainous terrain. Was it really against superior opposition? in few of these they bypassed allied defenses by going through difficult terrains and in one while doing so wrecked their para units for almost rest of the war.

On other side in Caucasus they didn't showed much how to bypass difficult defended terrain.

Combine this with the Luftwaffe's total dominance in 1938, and the advantages seem to lie heavily with Germany. Also, the Czech ranks would have contained many Sudeten German sympathisers.

Luftwaffe indeed had superiority in numbers but again, historians agree that in 1938 pilots were still in training and most importantly. According to one account Luftwaffe had ammunition for two weeks of sustained operations.

Weather was so bad in October 1938 that there probably wouldn't be much ground support sorties.

As said before, Czechoslovakia already dispersed its Air Force to field airports!


Also, the Czech ranks would have contained many Sudeten German sympathisers.

I mention it in one of discussions before. Czechoslovak Army actually sent most of unreliable Sudetland Germans to technical unarmed units! On other side German Nazi opposition was siding with Czechoslovakia.
 
Once a friend of mine, who was very proud of his Slovak heritage. He was a fellow history grad student. Told me how Czechoslavika could have defeated Germany in 1938. He borrowed the Israeli playbook from 29 years later. He had the Czechoslovak Air Force destroy the Luftwaffe.
Actually something similar I am playing now with. :D But I wanked Air Force a bit. Also I believe Czech AH author used something similar. "Lets attack at down before our Air Force is destroyed.

What would be reaction of World if Czechoslovakia on September 30th early morning instead of agreeing with Munich dictate declared war on Germany - as pretext it would use that German SS and SA were operating on Czechoslovak territory at least since September 21st. Also it would ask France to honor their treaty. With declaration Czechoslovak Air Force would attack German Airports which locations was good known as well as railway bridges in Linz
 
On a sidenote Rudolf Witzig (of Eben Emael fame) was part of an assesment Team for the Czech-wall : he believed it to be better than the (French and) Belgian fortifications ("almost not takeable")

OTOH in 9/38 only 9.500 of 16.000 lighter works and 229 of 1300 heavy works were fully usaable and equipped...

While territory in Bohemia was definitely difficult the further east you go (in Austria) the more open and flat the landscape gets.
 
Once a friend of mine, who was very proud of his Slovak heritage. He was a fellow history grad student. Told me how Czechoslavika could have defeated Germany in 1938. He borrowed the Israeli playbook from 29 years later. He had the Czechoslovak Air Force destroy the Luftwaffe.

How about combining my buddy'a scenario with Harry Turtledove's. Hitler goes to war before the agreement is reached. France and Britain declare war. Czechoslavika destroys the Luftwaffe. Hitler is overthrown, The new government seeks peace. Since the British, French and US are not distracted by a war in Europe. the Japanese stick to conquering China. There is no World War II. There is no GI Bill. Does my Dad get to law school in time to meet my Mom? I might not exist.
 
A Hindrance but there is not enough water to flood large tracts of land (This is not the Dutch mountains you know ;))
Would have to check on details but I believe area over there is marches (is that the word?) They believe they will stop Germans for at least couple of days plus make movement for heavy vehicles very hard.
 
Thaya or Dyje Comes from the word for "marches" but that name is describing the mediveal Situation ;)

The land has been settled for centuries with well developed infrastructure (only recently part of 2 different states)

The Thaya/Diye has an Standard depth of around 5 feet. The Vranovská přehrada is almost directly at the border, so will (likely) be a prime taget to prevent its destruction. (I don't know if a destruction was prepared, if not it would be difficult to improvise one). Even id detonated it would mainly cause a floodwave which might delay an attack for days, but not weeks. (133.000.000 m³ MAXIMUM volume)
 
Thaya or Dyje Comes from the word for "marches" but that name is describing the mediveal Situation ;)

The land has been settled for centuries with well developed infrastructure (only recently part of 2 different states)

The Thaya/Diye has an Standard depth of around 5 feet. The Vranovská přehrada is almost directly at the border, so will (likely) be a prime taget to prevent its destruction. (I don't know if a destruction was prepared, if not it would be difficult to improvise one). Even id detonated it would mainly cause a floodwave which might delay an attack for days, but not weeks. (133.000.000 m³ MAXIMUM volume)
Just reading Czech article on Defenses around Dyje and Vranovska prehrada. Area was fortified with fortification also supporting the defense of Vranovska prehrada. According to article Dam was ready to be used to increase the dept of Dyje by flooding.

According to article terrain is not so easily passable.

According to article 880 bunkers type ROP were finished in area till end of September 1938.

Look up pictures;
https://www.google.com/search?q=Vra...ChMI1M_s_LGhyAIVyeKACh0KJQBa&biw=1920&bih=969

https://www.google.com/search?q=Nar...ChMI9PqEnrKhyAIVQtSACh0-nAJK&biw=1920&bih=969
 
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