Plausibility Check: Catholic England, Independent Habsburg Netherlands [1520s POD]

Catholic England:

My claim is that all you need to avoid Henry VIII kick-starting the English Reformation is to have Catherine die a few years earlier. The best guess is that she died of cancer, so my POD is that this cancer progresses more quickly.

By the time Henry hears back from the Pope that an annulment won't be granted, it doesn't really matter, because Catherine died in 1531. Henry marries Ann who produces 2 male heirs (Henry IX, Elizabeth, Edward, and Catherine), and because of the advice of Henry's Catholic advisors, tolerates Henry's womanizing.

Henry pushes his absolutism but not to the point where he breaks with Papal Authority, and remains a Defender of the Faith. By having heirs, his stress eating and spending are tempered and he establishes a strong Tudor England.


Independent Habsburg Netherlands:

An immediate butterfly of this timeline is that Charles V produces an additional male heir - Joanna of Portugal is instead born John. When Charles, weary from managing a large empire, abdicates near the end of his life, he gives the Habsburgs Netherlands to John, and it is recognized as an elector in the HRE and, following the loss of HRE sovereignty (in a 30 YW equivalent or when the Netherlands converts to Protestantism and secedes), becomes a kingdom.

My major question is: how likely would it be that Charles V carves out the Netherlands as an independent domain for John (in the Netherlands, Johannes). Given that Charles split his realm between Spain (Philip) and the HRE (Ferdinand), could Johannes be given the Netherlands?

How would Charles strategy in the Netherlands be affected by having an additional son that he attends to create a crown for? Would he be more aggressive in the Netherlands to seize strategically important areas?

How does France react, at first to Catholic / Habsburg-aligned kingdoms on all sides, and then to an independent Netherland-Rhineland to the north?
 

Anderman

Donor
If Charles V gives the Netherlands to Johannes then there will be no 80years war. The Nethlerands will not develop their own identity and stay germans and inside the HRR. Especial if the Johannes will get the status a grand elector because he or his heirs could became Emperor of the HRR them selfs.
 
If Charles V gives the Netherlands to Johannes then there will be no 80years war. The Nethlerands will not develop their own identity and stay germans and inside the HRR. Especial if the Johannes will get the status a grand elector because he or his heirs could became Emperor of the HRR them selfs.

There's also no pressure from a ruler perceived as foreign - TTL's Johannes will be raised in the Netherlands and not a tiny, pale Spanish-speaking man like his brother.

Incidentally that means Philip will have less on his plate, and Spain may become a more maritime power than OTL. It will still involve itself in Europe, what with the Family Compact ensuring France still remains encircled.

Another crucial butterfly in this scenario is that with England remaining Catholic AND a third Habsburg line, the severe inbreeding of the Spanish Habsburg line may be mitigated!
 
I assume all yellow parts within the HRE become part of 'third Habsburg kingdom'? An interesting developement is that the Netherlands now also owns Franche-Comté. It would probably a wealthy country. The economic center of the Netherlands also remains in Antwerp and Flanders and doesnt move north. Who will marry with this Johannes or Johan? (Johannes is the religious name, Johan the wordly name. In the middle ages their were Dutch/Low German dukes named Johan, but not Johannes). And how is it going to defend itself against France?

osterrike1522.GIF
 
A good choice for TTL's Johan's bride would be TTL's Elizabeth of course.

It's gonna be hard defending itself vs France but it can almost always rely on Spanish and Imperial support so that mitigates its lack of defensiveness.
 
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