So I am thinking of a reality where Euphimius follows the emperor's orders and ditches his nun lady friend. So he doesn't defect, and the Aghlaribs don't gain an inroads onto the island. Can the Romans fend it off say if Crete also doesn't fall? What does this mean for the Tyhrennian possessions in Sardinia, Amalfi, Gaeta, and Naples? Could they then use the island to raid Tunis and Ifriqya? What does this mean for muslim pirates and ghazis. The Fatimids?
 
So I am thinking of a reality where Euphimius follows the emperor's orders and ditches his nun lady friend. So he doesn't defect, and the Aghlaribs don't gain an inroads onto the island. Can the Romans fend it off say if Crete also doesn't fall? What does this mean for the Tyhrennian possessions in Sardinia, Amalfi, Gaeta, and Naples? Could they then use the island to raid Tunis and Ifriqya? What does this mean for muslim pirates and ghazis. The Fatimids?

Aghlabids were invited to attack as far as I remember. So that's off. The Byzantines might face a little of raids from Tunis and nothing more. Sicily might remain Byzantine until at least Basil II rule.

This will cause butterflies. Will there be a Norman Sicily..?
 
I highly doubt it. From their position in Sicily, one of the richest in the Imperium, the reigning basileos would be able to keep the gains that Basil I, if he still kills Micheal, makes under the general Nikephoros the Elder against the Lombards. The subjugation of the ombards might go exceedingly well. Il Papa is going to have a hell of a time being smushed between the Franks/HRE and the Byzies! He is going to either play the two off or kowtow to either emperor. Fun times
 
Let's divide Byzantine interests into three rough "theaters." On one hand you have the Arab theater. This involves protection against the Caliphate and ghazis, including in Anatolia and Cyprus. The next theater is in the Balkans against the Slavs and the steppe nomads. The final theater would be the Western Mediterranean. This initially is North Africa, Sicily, and Sardinia/Corsica. This last theater is the furthest from Constantinople and the military themes in Anatolia. Thus it's the hardest to defend. Constans II tried to move his capital to Syracuse. All this accomplished was him getting his head cracked open in a bathtub.

It's just too far away and indefensible. North Africa is much closer to Sicily than even the Balkans is. So once a power takes that, Sicily becomes much more vulnerable.
 
Let's divide Byzantine interests into three rough "theaters." On one hand you have the Arab theater. This involves protection against the Caliphate and ghazis, including in Anatolia and Cyprus. The next theater is in the Balkans against the Slavs and the steppe nomads. The final theater would be the Western Mediterranean. This initially is North Africa, Sicily, and Sardinia/Corsica. This last theater is the furthest from Constantinople and the military themes in Anatolia. Thus it's the hardest to defend. Constans II tried to move his capital to Syracuse. All this accomplished was him getting his head cracked open in a bathtub.

It's just too far away and indefensible. North Africa is much closer to Sicily than even the Balkans is. So once a power takes that, Sicily becomes much more vulnerable.

Ehhh... not necessarily... it took almost a century years to fully conquer Sicily. And besides, as long as the Byzantines have Naval domination in the East it won't be that hard.
 
Let's divide Byzantine interests into three rough "theaters." On one hand you have the Arab theater. This involves protection against the Caliphate and ghazis, including in Anatolia and Cyprus. The next theater is in the Balkans against the Slavs and the steppe nomads. The final theater would be the Western Mediterranean. This initially is North Africa, Sicily, and Sardinia/Corsica. This last theater is the furthest from Constantinople and the military themes in Anatolia. Thus it's the hardest to defend. Constans II tried to move his capital to Syracuse. All this accomplished was him getting his head cracked open in a bathtub.

It's just too far away and indefensible. North Africa is much closer to Sicily than even the Balkans is. So once a power takes that, Sicily becomes much more vulnerable.
I wouldn't say that Sicilia is indefensible. It certainly wasn't for Roger, the Kalbids, the Aragonese, and so on. It's an island, which by that nature makes it defendsible. The distance problem is really a matter of not having any obstacles in the way, say no Hafsids in Kreta, and a powerful navy such as the one created by Basil I.
 
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