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Imagine a scenario where Justinian, more crafty than he was historically, presses the advantage wherever he can, diplomatically. He marries the Gothic princess Amalasuntha instead of Theodora, allowing him to gain a significant faction of loyal Goths in his conquest of Italy, and giving his son a full claim to the Ostrogothic Kingdom and the Roman Empire. In Italy, Justinian puts full trust in Belisarius, who secures the peninsula within a few years.

Butterflies prevent the Plague of Justinian (perhaps the ship carrying it sinks, or the rat carrying the disease dies), leading to an improved imperial economy, but also causing overpopulation that leads to a westward and southward migration into newly conquered territory (Hellenizing and urbanizing the West). Furthermore, Justinian tries to push a unified nature of Christ to limit religious conflict.

And with the saved up money from a shorter Italian war and no Plague, Justinian is able to fully conquer the Visigoths and establish a march against the Franks in Septimania.

This puts the Roman Empire, temporarily, in a very good position. But there are still endemic problems of managing such a huge empire. And growing rivalries outside its boundaries. Persia still has superiority in Mesopotamia, while the population of Arabia, the Carpathian Plains, and Germania are all increasing.

In 601, a prospering, Hellenized Roman Empire with full possession of Mare Nostrum is invaded by the Persian Empire in a climactic war like OTL. Because having Spain and Italy doesn't really help defend the Levant, Persia sees similar success, especially by allying with the Franks and Avars. The Shahanshah however, is too ambitious, and charges to Constantinople, failing, and leading to the reconquest of the occupied territory by a Heraclius like figure.

The empire is restored, etc. etc., but the new Rashidun Caliphate appears on the horizon, steamrolling the Persian Empire, and achieving significant success in attacking the Roman Empire continuing into the Umayyad period. For 100 years there is constant war between the Arabs and the Byzantines, as well as a new Khazar empire in the Caucasus, which raids the Arabs overland and the Byzantines at sea.

But ITTL, with that slight amount of extra income and population, the Romans are successfully able to reconquer Africa and Egypt (especially because those territories are accessible from the Mediterranean). From crisis they build a new empire, adapted to the threats of the medieval age.

Instead of just having a restored Roman Empire in its Antiquity state, it becomes thoroughly Byzantine and "Eastern". The Persian invasion and Umayyad Caliphate still serve as a "wake up call" to the Roman Empire which still had not accepted that it had lost its former influence, but the Byzantines ITTL have the resources to learn from this, and rebuild their empire.

Also the massive conflict between half-restored Rome and Persians/Khazars/Arabs would be pretty cool.

How plausible is this scenario?
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