Plausibility check: ARW vs France

Not informed enough about this era, so hoping to get some expertise.

What would have had to change to make the war go the other way? Specifically, what would it have taken for British North America to go to the French rather than the opposite? Would we have ended up with an American Revolution anyway, due to cultural/linguistic differences? I think an ARW vs the French would be super interesting, maybe with the British looking to reverse some of their losses in the Seven Years War.

Is this even plausible?


Thanks in advance!
 
There is absolutely no way that British North America, with its settler population of 1.5 million, was ever going to be conquered by France (who had maybe 60-70 thousand settlers in French North America) during the Seven Years' War. Even if the naval situations were reversed and France had naval supremacy I think the very best they could hope for would be to reverse the losses of the War of the Spanish Succession (Acadia, Newfoundland, Hudson's Bay) and maybe grab a Caribbean island or two.
 
There is absolutely no way that British North America, with its settler population of 1.5 million, was ever going to be conquered by France (who had maybe 60-70 thousand settlers in French North America) during the Seven Years' War. Even if the naval situations were reversed and France had naval supremacy I think the very best they could hope for would be to reverse the losses of the War of the Spanish Succession (Acadia, Newfoundland, Hudson's Bay) and maybe grab a Caribbean island or two.

You're likely right about the French nevet being able to absorb the entirety of the 13 Colonies. But what about taking a chunk of them? Perhaps all of New England?

That is still a lot of hostile population to absorb, but it would certainly be much less then the 1.5 million of the entire seaboard colonies. And it's also a small enough amount that a rebellion against Francr would in no way be assured.
 
You're likely right about the French nevet being able to absorb the entirety of the 13 Colonies. But what about taking a chunk of them? Perhaps all of New England?

That is still a lot of hostile population to absorb, but it would certainly be much less then the 1.5 million of the entire seaboard colonies. And it's also a small enough amount that a rebellion against Francr would in no way be assured.

The American colonialists were rabid Protestants. Any attempt to annex them would guarantee a rebellion and France would be facing both them and the British. It is ASB.
 
The American colonialists were rabid Protestants. Any attempt to annex them would guarantee a rebellion and France would be facing both them and the British. It is ASB.

No it's not. It's really not. ASB would involve something so astronomically impossible that it would require Alien Space Bats to let it happen. Examples of ASB would include:

What if Cotton Mather Became the Incredible Hulk

What if John Winthrop Uncovered the Holy Grail in the New World.

What if China Conquered the American Colonies

What if the Puritans tames Wooly Mammoth and used them as a food source.

What if Maine broke away to form the Mainian Empire, reinstituted the cult of Isis as their main religion, and conquered Europe.

Those are so impossible, that intervention from Alien Space Bats is the only way to make it happen. (Though I WOULD love a TL where poor Cotton Mather hulks out after a crowd besieges his home for promoting small pox innoculation.)

What you are referring too, is something which is unlikely. And yet, even there, how unlikely is it? Britain conquered New France and incorporated a deeply Catholic population into an Empire which was largely anti-Catholic and yet, after granting freedom of worship, there were no major rebellions. Weird.

I would agree that the Puritans were more anti-Catholic than the Canadians were anti-Protestant. But: so what?

The original post posited a scenario where the American colonies rebel against France. Its highly highly unlikely that the French would try to absorb 1.5 million English colonists (but NOT ASB: no deus es machina is invovled. Just really bad decision making). So I gave a situation that the French might believe they could absorb the population but it would likely lead to rebellion.

Please stop over using "ASB." Too many people use it as a way to shut down conversation and to try to buttress (poorly) their own worldview, because they can't conceive of things turning out a different way.

I'm not accusing you of the latter, but it is a particularly nasty trend upon a board which is set up to discuss alternative History. And when "ASB" gets thrown out to dismiss situations which clearly are NOT ASB, it cheapens the phrase.

Anyway, sorry, i shall bow gracefully step down from my soapbox. I hope I did not just come off as rude, and if I did so, i apologize.
 
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I'm not accusing you of the latter, but it is a particularly nasty trend upon a board which is set up to discuss alternative History. And when "ASB" gets thrown out to dismiss situations which clearly are NOT ASB, it cheapens the phrase.

Anyway, sorry, i shall bow gracefully step down from my soapbox. I hope I did not just come off as rude, and if I did so, i apologize.

I actually agree with you that the term is overused. But the idea of the French annexing major chunks of the US and not facing a rebellion IS alien space bats. It would be like Nazi Germany invading Russia and the Russians not fighting back. It would take alien space bats to come down and wipe the religious and political beliefs of the American people.
 
Not informed enough about this era, so hoping to get some expertise.

What would have had to change to make the war go the other way? Specifically, what would it have taken for British North America to go to the French rather than the opposite? Would we have ended up with an American Revolution anyway, due to cultural/linguistic differences? I think an ARW vs the French would be super interesting, maybe with the British looking to reverse some of their losses in the Seven Years War.

Is this even plausible?


Thanks in advance!

It is, but you'd need a POD well in advance of the Seven Years' War to get more people into French North America; as things stood, they didn't have the demographics to defend themselves against British conquest, let alone try and annexe the British colonies.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
It is, but you'd need a POD well in advance of the Seven Years' War to get more people into French North America; as things stood, they didn't have the demographics to defend themselves against British conquest, let alone try and annexe the British colonies.

That would be a really interesting premise: an ATL where, for reasons which don't need exploring at this juncture, demographics end up very different and it's ultimately France that has well over a million settlers in North America (while Britain has fewer than 100.000 there) in the second half of the 18th century. And where France, following a series of wars, ultimately succeeds in driving Britain from the continent and annexing the British region(s).

Despite the vastly different circumstances, the underlying issue of the mother country having certain interests and the colonists having other interests is relatively likely to still present itself. And with the defeat of the historical enemy/boogey-man (Britain), there would -- as in OTL -- be far less reason for the colonies to toe the line set by the mother country. So even in such a vastly different world, we could still see an American War of Independence, motivated by similar socio-economic motivations. The philosophical and political ideals that the revolution gets tied to might be very different, of course. (If France is anything like in OTL in its policies, I expect a major demand of the rebelling colonists to be that they want free trade, and an end to the French mercantilist system.)


...I'm a bit sorry to say it, @ChewyGranola, but that's just about the only realistic way I can really see something like "the ARW, but against France" happening.
 
I actually agree with you that the term is overused. But the idea of the French annexing major chunks of the US and not facing a rebellion IS alien space bats. It would be like Nazi Germany invading Russia and the Russians not fighting back. It would take alien space bats to come down and wipe the religious and political beliefs of the American people.

Note, however, that I never said there wouldn't be a rebellion; I specifically said that one would be very likely. Getting the American colonies to rebel against the French crown is the point of the thread.

I did muse that there wasn't a rebellion when the British annexes New France, and supposed that there might possibly be some small circumstances where New England wouldn't rebel if the shoe was on the other foot, but that rebellion was by and far the most likely outcome. This may be where the confusion came from.

But, yes, having the American colonists rebel against France in the case of them winning the 7 Years War is the topic of the thread. I only mentioned the annexation of New England, because it's a smaller 'chunk' which France could conceivably believe (incorrectly) that it could incorporate into their realm, rather than the entirety of the 13 colonies (which even the most jingoistic French admin is going to realize is a bad idea)
 
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