Plausibility Check and Discussion: An even Closer 2000 Presidential Election

If you flipped the statewide results from 2000 in Ohio, Oregon, New Mexico and Iowa, the 2000 election would have resulted in an electoral college tie with likely recounts occurring in both Florida (OTL 547 vote margin) and New Mexico (OTL margin 366 votes).

Now, holding aside the question of how Gore flips Ohio, which had a 165,000 vote margin, the 2 other states, Iowa and Oregon, were exceedingly close, with 4144 and 6622 vote margins, respectively.

In this scenario, Bush would have managed a tie in the electoral college with a less than 1000 vote margin in 2 states, but would have won when the election was decided by the GOP-controlled House. By winning Ohio, Gore's popular vote margin would have likely been even larger (850,000 or so if you simply flip results in the 4 states)

The Senate, by the way, wound up evenly divided at 50 seats for each party (Jeffords didn't flip until June), which leaves the outcome of the Vice-Presidential contest in the Senate with some interesting possibilities...

Now within this scenario, what thoughts do you have on the effect such a scenario would have had on Bush's legitimacy, the impact on American politics going forward, etc.? Would a Dem VP candidate contest the race in the Senate or allow Bush to have his VP choice?
 
Well, Lieberman would be more than willing to work with Bush.
And, if someone brought up the South Carolina poll closings, it would reduce Bush's "legitimacy"...
 
Did the GOP control a clear majority of state legislatures? Their majority was very thin.

If they do, then President Bush and VP Lieberman. I can see Lieberman pretty much being a Bush lapdog after 9/11. No Cheney has huge butterflies, too.
 
Liebermann as Veep under Bush would be interesting, but I doubt that Senate Democrats would surrender even their divided 50-50 control of the U.S. Senate by forcing Liebermann on Bush (remember, Connecticut had a Republican governor in 2000-01).

Bush would give Liebermann very little to do if he were the Veep anyway, so it is questionable if Liebermann would want to give up his Senate seat to be part of a Republican administration for 4 years. It would certainly be an awkward position from which to run for president in 2004, as Liebermann actually did in OTL.
 
Did the GOP control a clear majority of state legislatures? Their majority was very thin.

If they do, then President Bush and VP Lieberman. I can see Lieberman pretty much being a Bush lapdog after 9/11. No Cheney has huge butterflies, too.

State legislatures don't matter. It's the incoming House that elects the POTUS by state delegation (each state = 1 vote, clear GOP edge) and the Senate picks the VP (one vote per Senator, 2000 OTL Senate election wound up split 50/50 until Jeffords became an Independent and caucused with Democrats in June 2001).

But, yes, an outcome with no Cheney gets very interesting. Even more so if Gore doesn't pick Lieberman...and goes with someone a bit more left. Question is, though, absent foresight concerning 9/11, Iraq and Afghanistan, would a Dem with POTUS ambitions of their own want to be VEEP in a GOP Administration? The job doesn't entail much beyond presiding over and breaking ties in the Senate (a big deal in a 50/50 Senate) and checking the pulse of the POTUS each day.
 
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