So one consequence of a timeline that I am writing is that Anatolia is not available to the Turkmen tribes and refugees migrating West trying to get away from the Mongols due to rising power in the region with the troops and the focus to keep them at bay, however one area that doesn't have any such protection, and whose rulers (aside from the remaining Crusader States) might even welcome them in, is Palestine.
So as the title states, what are the chances of a powerful Turkish state, perhaps not on the level of the Ottomans OTL but a strong regional power none the less, rising to power in Palestine?
For reference, this would likely happen around 1240-1260 and the butterflies from my POD won't have significantly changed the geopolitical situation in the region except for the Mamluks being temporarily weaker in the region. Though they might welcome the Turks in initially as more manpower.
Of course another problem is that a lot of these Turkmen tribes won't have a huge amount of grazing land for their herds like they would in Central Anatolia from what I can tell, but from what I have seen, the migration into Anatolia started the process of the Turks settling down into cities in much larger numbers and building new states anyways, possibly due to the Persians they brought along with them. So I don't see that being a huge obstacle.
So what do you all think? Can Palestine form the core of a strong regional power, possibly with Mamluk backing?