Plausibility Check: An Alternate WWII With a Surviving Tsarist Russia + Japan vs. Britain + France ?

CaliGuy

Banned
Is this scenario plausible? :

Russian Tsar Nicholas II dies of typhoid fever in 1900 (as he apparently came close to doing in our TL). Thus, this younger brother Michael becomes the new Russian Tsar. Due to better leadership, Russia completely avoids the Russo-Japanese War and also fights somewhat better in WWI and prevents a revolution at home during WWI by being more attentive to the needs of its people. Either during or after WWI, Tsar Michael (II) creates a figurehead Duma but also listens to it a lot during the peaceful 1920s. After the end of this TL's WWI, Russia acquires the Memelland, Galicia, maybe Subarpathian Ruthenia, and the Armenian parts/territories of the Ottoman Empire. Also, Russia creates an independent Poland (allied to Russia) out of the Polish-majority territories (minor Vilnius and Lvov) in the Russian Empire and also adds Polish-majority southern East Prussia, the Polish Corridor, Posen Province, and Upper Silesia to this newly created independent Poland. After the end of WWI, Russia abolishes all anti-Semitic discrimination--including the Pale of Settlement--and also, as a victorious power in WWI, gets large-scale reparations from Germany. (FTR, both Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire still collapse after the end of WWI in this TL.)

After the Great Depression hits Russia in the early 1930s and French investment to Russia dries up, radical socialists (similar to our TL's Bolsheviks) win a lot of seats in the Russian Duma and are able to force Tsar Michael's hand in regards to implementing things such as radical land confiscation, et cetera. These measures make the radical socialists in the Russian Duma extremely popular among the Russian masses and allow them to retain their popularity in Russia even after the Great Depression subsides a bit in Russia.

In response to the rise of radical socialists, Tsar Michael reluctantly begins flexing Russia's muscles abroad and also engages in a large-scale military build-up. Eventually, Russia's sponsorship of various groups (Kurdish separatists in Iraq and Persia, et cetera) causes tensions between Russia and Britain + France to significantly escalate (in spite of their WWI alliance 15-20 years earlier). However, when Tsar Michael attempts to de-escalate the situation, he is assassinated by a group of radicalized Russian conservative military officers who are afraid of radical socialism and who believe that going to war (a topic on which the radical socialists are divided among themselves) is the only way to fracture and significantly weaken Russia's radical socialists and thus to strengthen the Russian autocracy.

After Michael's assassination, his son George becomes the new Russian Tsar. Seeing his father's fate and not wishing to share it, George becomes a staunch militarist and thus supports a continuation of Russia's military build-up and of Russia's sponsorship of various separatist activities in its "backyard" (such as Iraqi and Persian Kurdish separatism).

Anyway, in either the late 1930s or early 1940s, a Russian-sponsored Kurdish separatist rebellion breaks out in northern Iraq. Using the spurious excuse that it needs to prevent genocide, Russia militarily intervenes in Iraqi Kurdistan in order to protect the Iraqi Kurdish separatists. In response to this, both Britain and France declare war on Russia. Meanwhile, Japan begins engaging in its own expansionism in China in order to satisfy its need for more natural resources in order to deal with the effects of the Great Depression back at home in Japan. Thus, we end up seeing a war between Britain + France + China and Russia + Japan--in other words, this TL's World War II.

Anyway, is this scenario realistic?

Also, what exactly do Germany, Italy, and the U.S. do in response to this TL's World War II? (For the record, you decide who governs Germany in this TL.)

Indeed, any thoughts on all of this? :)
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, for the record, I suspect that Germany--even under a non-Nazi but conservative leadership--would exploit this TL's WWII to militarily revise its borders in the East. Specifically, it would use military force to recapture the Polish Corridor, maybe Posen Province, and Upper Silesia and also maybe to capture Austria and perhaps the Sudetenland as well.

After all, with Britain + France and Russia currently fighting each other, neither Britain + France nor Russia would actually be willing to fight Germany over a military revision of its Eastern borders. Indeed, a Franco-British declaration of war on Germany would only drive Germany towards Russia, and a Russian declaration of war on Germany would only drive Germany towards Britain + France!
 
Interesting. I seem to recall that Nicholas' younger brother was offered the top job towards the end but declined. Maybe sense it's earlier in the century and before a revolution Michael would accept it?

It's a very interesting idea though. Not sure how exactly it would work but I'm very intrigued.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Interesting. I seem to recall that Nicholas' younger brother was offered the top job towards the end but declined. Maybe sense it's earlier in the century and before a revolution Michael would accept it?

Yeah--given the nature of the Russian state back in 1900, I suspect that Michael would be compelled to accept the Tsar job if he was offered it back then rather than in 1917. After all, if he doesn't take the job in 1900, then the job will fall to his uncle Vladimir!

It's a very interesting idea though. Not sure how exactly it would work but I'm very intrigued.

You mean my entire scenario/TL here or simply the Tsar Michael part?
 
I actually think Russia and Japan are pretty natural Allies, especially to hold China down, a bit like Britain and Prussia. This would make for a very interesting war, especially because there's almost no way the US would get involved on either front due to the key trade routes and communication lines being clear on the Pacific side.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I actually think Russia and Japan are pretty natural Allies, especially to hold China down, a bit like Britain and Prussia. This would make for a very interesting war, especially because there's almost no way the US would get involved on either front due to the key trade routes and communication lines being clear on the Pacific side.
Can't Japan still piss off the U.S. by invading Pearl Harbor in this TL's WWII, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Over what?

Russia's got Oil, wealth, material and everything Japan needs to keep their war machine running.

Attacking Pearl gives them nothing.
So, you're saying that Russian resources make conquering the Philippines (which were controlled by the U.S. during this time) worthless to Japan?
 
So, you're saying that Russian resources make conquering the Philippines (which were controlled by the U.S. during this time) worthless to Japan?

Possibly.

In your scenario, Japan is likely to be receiving at resources from their ally.
As a result, Any economic Sanctions that the USA might put on Japan for dicking around in China will have less of an impact.

With resources, Japan would continue on their conquest of China because they're not being starved out, and thus don't have to try and land their "decisive blow" against the UK/Netherlands/US to force them to the bargaining table and end their sanctions.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Possibly.

In your scenario, Japan is likely to be receiving at resources from their ally.
As a result, Any economic Sanctions that the USA might put on Japan for dicking around in China will have less of an impact.

With resources, Japan would continue on their conquest of China because they're not being starved out, and thus don't have to try and land their "decisive blow" against the UK/Netherlands/US to force them to the bargaining table and end their sanctions.
Wouldn't a Franco-British blockade of Japan prevent Russia from supplying natural resources to Japan proper, though? Indeed, would Japan proper be able to survive without external natural resources while Russia is able to send natural resources to the Japanese Army in China?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, I want something clarified--was the U.S.'s oil embargo against Japan in our TL primarily hurtful to the Japanese military or to the people/civilians in Japan proper?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Wouldn't a Franco-British blockade of Japan prevent Russia from supplying natural resources to Japan proper, though? Indeed, would Japan proper be able to survive without external natural resources while Russia is able to send natural resources to the Japanese Army in China?
How ?
They would have to block the sea lines between Korea and Japan, all of the chinese sea ... quite tight waters, relatively easy to mine and watch accesses to prevent enemy from entering.
Esp. as a militaris Tsar would most likely have considerably propped up his pacific fleet.
 
Wouldn't a Franco-British blockade of Japan prevent Russia from supplying natural resources to Japan proper, though? Indeed, would Japan proper be able to survive without external natural resources while Russia is able to send natural resources to the Japanese Army in China?

This is under the assumption that either the Franco-British beefed up their Asian fleets or Japan/Russia didn't increase theirs.

Your scenario is just a little to vague to really get into the nitty gritty of the scenario, but another major point would be that the Anglo-French fleets are going to be at a relative disadvantage, since they're going to have to operate so close to the Home Islands and the bulk of Japan's fleet.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
How ?
They would have to block the sea lines between Korea and Japan, all of the chinese sea ... quite tight waters, relatively easy to mine and watch accesses to prevent enemy from entering.

OK; understood.

Esp. as a militaris Tsar would most likely have considerably propped up his pacific fleet.

To be fair, though, such a Russian action would probably provoke a similar British response, no?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
This is under the assumption that either the Franco-British beefed up their Asian fleets or Japan/Russia didn't increase theirs.

I would assume that France and Britain would do this if Russia and/or Japan increased the size of their fleets beforehand, no?

Also, can't Britain and France send over their entire or almost their entire fleets to the Pacific in this war?

Your scenario is just a little to vague to really get into the nitty gritty of the scenario, but another major point would be that the Anglo-French fleets are going to be at a relative disadvantage, since they're going to have to operate so close to the Home Islands and the bulk of Japan's fleet.

Can't Britain and France, say, try capturing Sakhalin Island beforehand, though?
 
I would assume that France and Britain would do this if Russia and/or Japan increased the size of their fleets beforehand, no?

Also, can't Britain and France send over their entire or almost their entire fleets to the Pacific in this war?

The Baltic fleet, the Black Sea fleet and whatever European allies Russia may have would say otherwise.

Like I said, the scenario is too vague to really get into the nitty gritty.

You're making assumptions that everything in Europe is going to be well-off enough that the British can send their entire fleet to fight the Japanese.

I'm forced to make the assumption that Russia has allies, since Poland is essentially a Russian Puppet, Germany is a wild card, Finland is still part of Russia, thus Scandinavia is either neutral or pressured to be on Russia's side, Romania/Bulgaria/Balkans are a wild card, but likely to be Russian allies, and Turkey is a wild card.

Can't Britain and France, say, try capturing Sakhalin Island beforehand, though?

Given that the British/French fleets are operating out of India/Australia and Indochina, they still have the same problem.

To even Get to Sakhalin, the Anglo-French fleets needs to pass Okinawa, all four of the Home Islands, Korea, Vladivostok and that might drag in the Kamchatka fleet as well.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Baltic fleet, the Black Sea fleet and whatever European allies Russia may have would say otherwise.

You're assuming that Russia would have European allies, though.

Like I said, the scenario is too vague to really get into the nitty gritty.

Well, you can try filling in the details here.

You're making assumptions that everything in Europe is going to be well-off enough that the British can send their entire fleet to fight the Japanese.

Few powers in Europe--even if hostile to Britain--actually have a Navy which is capable of challenging Britain's Navy, no?

I'm forced to make the assumption that Russia has allies, since Poland is essentially a Russian Puppet,

Yes; correct!

Germany is a wild card,

Does Germany actually want Alsace-Lorraine back badly enough to ally with Russia, though?

Finland is still part of Russia, thus Scandinavia is either neutral or pressured to be on Russia's side,

Yes; correct!

Romania/Bulgaria/Balkans are a wild card, but likely to be Russian allies,

What exactly would they actually get out of entering this war, though?

and Turkey is a wild card.

Frankly, Turkey would probably be either neutral or pro-Britain & France.

Given that the British/French fleets are operating out of India/Australia and Indochina, they still have the same problem.

You mean logistics, correct?

To even Get to Sakhalin, the Anglo-French fleets needs to pass Okinawa, all four of the Home Islands, Korea, Vladivostok and that might drag in the Kamchatka fleet as well.

You mean to refuel or what? Indeed, please pardon my extreme ignorance here!
 
You're assuming that Russia would have European allies, though.

Well, you can try filling in the details here.

See, here's the problem.

I don't know what you're thinking, so I'm forced to make assumptions, which doesn't help me.

Few powers in Europe--even if hostile to Britain--actually have a Navy which is capable of challenging Britain's Navy, no?

By themselves?
yes.

Together?
Possibly.

Does Germany actually want Alsace-Lorraine back badly enough to ally with Russia, though?

Depends on the Germany.
Since Germany is a complete blank slate here, It's possible they could, maybe they won't, but if Russia invades, it won't have much of a choice.

What exactly would they actually get out of entering this war, though?

It depends on who's on what side.
Bulgaria might try to pry bits off of Greece and Turkey, though.


You mean logistics, correct?

You mean to refuel or what? Indeed, please pardon my extreme ignorance here!

Mate, I'm talking everything.
Fuel, ammo, surprise, supplies, landing crews, soldiers, heavy arms...

What you're proposing is that they fight their way through the thick of it to land on Sakhalin.
You know what's on Sakhalin?

Nothing.
 
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