Plausibility Check: Alternatives to Cancelled Overlord (Writer's Forum Timeline)

I'm currently working on the draft of a timeline that will be placed into the Writer's Forum set in and around the Second World War, and one of the plot elements is that in mid-1943 the Evil Diabolical SS/Ahnenerbe have discovered an ancient and terrible Lovecraftian weapon in the depths of the Normandy countryside, and after many sacrifices and chanting and reading from magic books, they have succeeded in creating a Magical Nazi Super weapon. The weapon can't be moved, but it has more than sufficient range to devastate any of the proposed landing sites for Operation Overlord.

The Allies get word of this Super Secret Terrible Lovecraftian Weapon of Doom (TM) and decides, after many frantic high-level meetings, that they must therefore cancel Overlord. That's a key plot point, but it's the military fallout from this decision that I'd like some input/advice on. So far, I have as resulting developments:

  • Particularly angered by the decision to cancel Overlord (which was as a result of British pressure overall) the Joint Chiefs have taken the decision to begin transferring significant portions of their forces away from the build-up in Britain, particularly naval assets - Admiral King has been distinctly successful in persuading the Joint Chiefs to begin transferring capital ships and landing craft to the Pacific Theatre. Some US assets will be transferred to the Italian Front
  • Under the connivance of Churchill and his life-long obsession with side-projects and 'the Underbelly of Europe', the Imperial General Staff have decided upon a two-prong approach to replace Overlord. Firstly, approximately half of the British and Commonwealth forces building up for Normandy will instead be transferred to the Mediterranean. Some forces will be transferred directly to the advance up the Italian spine, while others will be held back for planned future operations in Greece, the Balkans and perhaps even Turkey
  • Secondly, under Major-General Sir Andrew Thorne, the Scotco formation in Scotland will be reinforced with British and Canadian forces, as well as a smattering of other Allied units, under the title Apostle Force. Taken from the name of the OTL force that liberated Norway in 1945, the Apostle objectives will be to land in Norway and advance eastwards, with long-term objectives of placing pressure on Finland and easing supply pressures to the Soviets
  • There will also be some British and Commonwealth assets sent to the Far Eastern Front, although I'm quite hazy about what could/should be sent and what the consequences might be.

That's just about where I am with future plot developments in regards to the overarching military situation. A great deal of it is up in the air, and therefore I'd like to throw the floor open to suggestions/advice/constructive criticism. Very little has been written yet, so I'm happy to change as needed, although I'd like to retain the Norway/Turkey axis of advance where possible, just to make it a little different than OTL.

I should also note that, as this is being written in the Writer's Forum, I'll be focusing more on writing, story and related elements, rather than 100% reality. So while I want to make things as plausible as I can, and don't want to write the Frisian Islands campaign, I'm ready to utilise a little Handwavium where needed and bend the rules for the sake of the story.

With that being said, I'd love to know what people think the future of the Western Front (and the domino effects on the Eastern and Far Eastern Fronts as well). The current date in the timeline is late 1943.
 
While the landings would probably be far more contested, wouldn't that be a case for Operation Dragoon to be put on steroids and moved up a bit? With maybe two axes of penetration, one into the Rhône corridor and one into Liguria along the coast?
 
Also, if it became known that there is an all-powerful occult doomsday device in the Normandie countryside, wouldn't every of the axis nations race to get a hand on it, preferably before the other nations do? Instead of aborted, I can see operation Overlord being preceded by six months of commando raids by US and Commonwealth crack teams and also real nasty sabotage by French partisans.
 
Right. Firstly, those divisions that Monty drew home in 1943 will probably stay put in Italy depending on when many of these decisions are made, and the Americans and maybe the British might send a few more divisions to Italy.

some elements of the army might call for a landing in the Calais region, depending on the range of the super weapon. However, I can see a Churchillian Med strategy occuring. However, this might be more focused around Southern France, with the aim of pushing up towards Paris. Depending on when Apostile force launches its invasion of Norway, this might either occur in either March/April 1944, before Norway, or July/August 1944, after Norway, depending on the availabilty of landing craft, and the requirement for a lot of troops to be transferred. Monty will likely remain in Italy, and the Allies will do far better with more troops, as they can push harder after Rome, when the Germans were broken especially as one of the main reasons for faliure was Clark's incompetence (Can you get rid of Clark?)

King won't be happy about landing craft going to Norway, but OTL he offered the European theater extra landing craft if they went for Dragoon instead of a invasion at the top of the Italian boot, so that might be repeated ITTL. And it would be politically unviable for Roosevelt and Churchill not to make some attempt to librate France, so I would be very suprised not to see Dragoon on Steroids. In the meantime, Churchill want a attack on Crete, but the Americans won't be happy because they see no soft underbelly, so it might get chucked away as a concession to the Americans to allow for Norway, which Americans might see as pointless as it won't help beat the Nazis. (and they are probably correct) Of course, it depends on what the invasion of Norway entails. Taking back Narvik and possibly Trondheim means the Arctic convoys are no longer needed (Or can be reduced to a few destroyers), but really, nothing would be gained from taking back the rest of Norway, especially as the Germans will continue to have the use of the French Submarine bases, so it wouldn't remove the U-Boat threats.

Feel free to ask any further questions you may have, or get from this brain dump.
 
A few further thoughts. In Normandy/Northern France, until the end of august 1944, the Americans had 20 Divisions, of which 13 were Infantry, four were Armoured (or "Armored"), and two were airbourne. The vast majority seem to have been on the European side of the Atlantic in late 1943.

The British had about four Armoured divisons, one airbourne, and nine Infantry, for a total of 14 divisions. The Canadians also had one Armoured division and two Infantry as well, and the Polish and French had one division each.

Now, a lot of American units arrived in European theatre after the liberation of Paris, getting shipped across in mid 1944. These will not be needed on the same scale as OTL, unless Dragoon on steroids is massively successful, so maybe half those troops can go to the Asia Pacific theatre. (And to do what?)

Now, I can't imagine the Americans wanting to get too involved in Norway, beyond special forces and observers, so that will be a British operation. I don't know the order of battle for Scottish command, but I think it is more likely that three/four British divisons are drawn from the forces set out for Overlord. The British could probably provide adquate shore bombardment, they still have HMS Ramilies and HMS Warspite, and I suppose they could keep HMS Malaya around, provided they can find the men for it.

The British and Americans will have to keep some troops in Britain for Home defence, but Dragoon could be reinforced with troops from Overlord. Indeed, most the troops from Dragoon came from the Italian theater, so apart from the French corps, of three divisions, everything else can stay put in Italy, and the Americans could drag across say, nine divisions from Overlord, which doubles the strength of Dragoon, and only uses half of the troops used on Overlord.

By this point, Norway shouldn't be needing quite so much shore bombardment, so even the Americans have dragged everything to the Pacific (Not including, say the USS Arkansas) They could muster five Battleships, including the French Battleship Lorraine (Unless the Royal Navy decommissions one due to manpower problems.) And if necessary, the Italians could probably bring one of their Battleships back into service, or recall the light cruisers from the South Altantic to help.
 
Top