Plausibility Check: Alliance replaces Labour as main opposition party

With a 1981 POD, is this possible or totally ASB? Perhaps instead of 20-30 Labour moderates the entire moderate wing splits off?
 
Thoughts...

The obvious POD is Tony Benn winning the Deputy Leadership election at the Labour Special Conference at Wembley rather than Healey.

A Foot-Benn Labour Party would have perhaps persuaded the Blairs and perhaps even the Hattersleys to jump ship.

A second thought, and one for you to consider, is could we have seen more Conservative defections in 1981? Perhaps a heavy-handed response to the Brixton Riots involving armed police shooting rioters or Maragret Thatcher sacking the likes of Prior, Walker and Gilmour might have encouraged some moderate Conservatives to leave for the emerging Social Democratic Party?
 
1983.UK.png

Something like this? Eventually Lab falls down to 40-50 seats in Scotland and Wales, while the Lib Dems dominate Northern England?

1983.UK.png
 
Which means the ultimate nightmare of Labourites short of a fourth Thatcher term: Prime Minister David Owen. While I can't be bothered to create another few election boxes, I don't see Labour disappearing entirely. The hard left vote has to go somewhere, so my scenario is something like India: a conservative party (Tories/BJP), Third Way centre-leftists (Lib Dems/INC) and hard left (Labour/Left Front), with a few regional parties in the mix.

1987: 376-202-40-12. (Tory)
1992: 353-222-55-20. (LD)
 
Which means the ultimate nightmare of Labourites short of a fourth Thatcher term: Prime Minister David Owen. While I can't be bothered to create another few election boxes, I don't see Labour disappearing entirely. The hard left vote has to go somewhere, so my scenario is something like India: a conservative party (Tories/BJP), Third Way centre-leftists (Lib Dems/INC) and hard left (Labour/Left Front), with a few regional parties in the mix.

so Labour becomes what the LD were in the 2005 elections, the only left wing choice, while the LD are more or less "New Labour"?
 
Essentially, yes. But with the hardest left out of the party, the interfactional tension is much less palpable, though it is still there. If Tony Benn overthrows Foot (as Thatcher's biographers speculate he would have done had they lost key by-elections in 1983 and defeated Healey in '80) then the collapse probably comes even faster. That 1% in 1980 probably made the difference between a party realignment of the sort last seen in 1923: opposition and third parties swapping places.
 
I'd buy it, would this lead to Thatcher going down sooner? Labour had to walk around with Foot around its neck for years after ward, it took a full force rebranding over the next 14 years, it wasn't till some one first elected in 1983 was party leader they took back power (as more or less Thatcher in a red dress), the LD was always in this case the moderate alternative with no scary radical past there
 
1987 has a booming economy and a popular Tory party, so no. Remember that while on foreign policy and defence the SDP's positions were scarcely different from Thatcher's, economically they were still 1970s Keynesians, with all the economic malaise of that era being very recent history. In 1992 they can probably win if they go full-tilt Thirdist, and you have the advantage of a charismatic opposition leader in place of Kinnock facing Major. If Thatcher hangs on, then all bets are off, though she might get a small majority from a post-Gulf khaki boost.
 
Is there anyway Militant could take over Labour with the Alliance becoming the centre left party making Labour a communist party in all but name?
 
Considering the focus of SDP-Liberal Support, is it not more likely they replace the Tories rather than Labour? Even if Labour came third in terms of seats, they might still end up the largest party.
 
The Tories are conservatives, the Alliance is centre-left, so I fail to see how your scenario works.

Both the Alliance and the Tories are largely middle class parties, they remain so to this day which is why most seats in the south of England are either Tory safe sates or Lib Dem-Tory marginals. This would have been the case in the eighties as well. It will be middle class the votes the Alliance will be taking not Working Class ones.
 
Both the Alliance and the Tories are largely middle class parties, they remain so to this day which is why most seats in the south of England are either Tory safe sates or Lib Dem-Tory marginals. This would have been the case in the eighties as well. It will be middle class the votes the Alliance will be taking not Working Class ones.

While I can see your point, the idea is that most working-class voters break off to support the Lib Dems or Tories. Besides, where does the Tory right go?
 
Both the Alliance and the Tories are largely middle class parties, they remain so to this day which is why most seats in the south of England are either Tory safe sates or Lib Dem-Tory marginals. This would have been the case in the eighties as well. It will be middle class the votes the Alliance will be taking not Working Class ones.

Furthermore, the Thatcher revolution was based on working class voters who switched to the Conservatives from Labour for largely economic reasons- where do they go in this scenario?
 
Perhaps become a swing bloc between Lib Dems and the Tories, with a small minority going to whatever rump Lab calls itself? I don't have a full scenario worked out here, just some random thoughts. :eek:
 
Perhaps become a swing bloc between Lib Dems and the Tories, with a small minority going to whatever rump Lab calls itself? I don't have a full scenario worked out here, just some random thoughts. :eek:

Is there any guarantee the Alliance will end up calling itself the Liberal Democrat party? Perhaps Social Liberals could work? Or just Social Democrats and Liberals, popularly the Social Democrats.

Rump Labour could perhaps end up calling itself the Socialist Labour Party, or maybe just the Socialist Party. But is there really any reason for it to rename at all?
 
While I can see your point, the idea is that most working-class voters break off to support the Lib Dems or Tories. Besides, where does the Tory right go?

I just can't see that realistically happening, even though the Alliance were the main beneficiaries of the Labour collapse, it only allowed the Conservatives in by the back door by turning Labour voters who were centrists (and predominantly middle class) away from Labour, they failed to make a significant breakthrough in the working class seats, the ones they would need to have to replace the Labour party. After 1987, or at least after 1997, they seemed to realise that their best way into power was through first replacing the Conservative party.

The Tory right will stay where it is, which sorts of blocks the Alliance anyway, you need a really powerful UKIP style party to properly get the Alliance as the opposition.
 
Furthermore, the Thatcher revolution was based on working class voters who switched to the Conservatives from Labour for largely economic reasons- where do they go in this scenario?

Back to Labour when the Conservatives collapse, or a BNP analouge, but that's very unlikely.
 
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