With a 1981 POD, is this possible or totally ASB? Perhaps instead of 20-30 Labour moderates the entire moderate wing splits off?
Something like this? Eventually Lab falls down to 40-50 seats in Scotland and Wales, while the Lib Dems dominate Northern England?
Which means the ultimate nightmare of Labourites short of a fourth Thatcher term: Prime Minister David Owen. While I can't be bothered to create another few election boxes, I don't see Labour disappearing entirely. The hard left vote has to go somewhere, so my scenario is something like India: a conservative party (Tories/BJP), Third Way centre-leftists (Lib Dems/INC) and hard left (Labour/Left Front), with a few regional parties in the mix.
The Tories are conservatives, the Alliance is centre-left, so I fail to see how your scenario works.
Both the Alliance and the Tories are largely middle class parties, they remain so to this day which is why most seats in the south of England are either Tory safe sates or Lib Dem-Tory marginals. This would have been the case in the eighties as well. It will be middle class the votes the Alliance will be taking not Working Class ones.
Both the Alliance and the Tories are largely middle class parties, they remain so to this day which is why most seats in the south of England are either Tory safe sates or Lib Dem-Tory marginals. This would have been the case in the eighties as well. It will be middle class the votes the Alliance will be taking not Working Class ones.
Perhaps become a swing bloc between Lib Dems and the Tories, with a small minority going to whatever rump Lab calls itself? I don't have a full scenario worked out here, just some random thoughts.![]()
While I can see your point, the idea is that most working-class voters break off to support the Lib Dems or Tories. Besides, where does the Tory right go?
Furthermore, the Thatcher revolution was based on working class voters who switched to the Conservatives from Labour for largely economic reasons- where do they go in this scenario?