Plausibility Check: All Oregon?

Unlikely, but possible. The extreme 54'40 claim was more of a negotiating tactic than actual goal. However, if the border does not get resolved, it is possible that as more American settlers enter the region that some begin to occupy areas north of the 49th parallel which eventually forms the basis for a strong US claim to the region. However, much would depend on what happens during this time period as there would be many factors pushing both sides to agree on the 49th parallel as the border.

Once Texas entered the Union, there was going to be a reaction to secure more land in the north, which is where the 54'40 claim came in. And once Texas was in the Union, you were risking war with Mexico because of the Rio Grande/Nueces dispute and that the US wanted at least some of California to include San Francisco bay. So the US is in danger of two wars at the same time. In that regard, a peaceful resolution with MX (they agree to the Rio Grande border and sell some of California), might encourage a more bellicose stand with Britain, or at least a desire to not rush the Oregon border dispute. The next step would either be a victorious war against Britain in 1848 (very risky) or more US settlement in the area and a future border crisis when the US is much stronger (1860? 1880?).
 
Unlikely, but possible. The extreme 54'40 claim was more of a negotiating tactic than actual goal. However, if the border does not get resolved, it is possible that as more American settlers enter the region that some begin to occupy areas north of the 49th parallel which eventually forms the basis for a strong US claim to the region. However, much would depend on what happens during this time period as there would be many factors pushing both sides to agree on the 49th parallel as the border.

Once Texas entered the Union, there was going to be a reaction to secure more land in the north, which is where the 54'40 claim came in. And once Texas was in the Union, you were risking war with Mexico because of the Rio Grande/Nueces dispute and that the US wanted at least some of California to include San Francisco bay. So the US is in danger of two wars at the same time. In that regard, a peaceful resolution with MX (they agree to the Rio Grande border and sell some of California), might encourage a more bellicose stand with Britain, or at least a desire to not rush the Oregon border dispute. The next step would either be a victorious war against Britain in 1848 (very risky) or more US settlement in the area and a future border crisis when the US is much stronger (1860? 1880?).

That sounds good! I think America would wait until they were stronger, so 1870 before the Oregon war, but this will shift the focus up North and make America and Britain's relationship even worse.
 
all oregon could mean Northern Mexico added as well.

Maybe set up a Puppet republic of Rio Grande, and annex Sonora, Baja California, and Chiahnaica (Whatever that place ( Directly East of Sonora) is caled)
 
the US doesn't have to be all antagonistic to Britain; the '54-40 or fight' thing was mostly a bluff to get Britain to talk about how OR would be divided. If the Brits decide to stall on negotiations, the US could continue to flood the area with settlers, still go to war with Mexico, and then claim the whole area due to 'boots on the ground'. But I find it hard to imagine that Britain would let it go that far unless they were really distracted by some other crisis. So, it's not ASB, but not likely either...
 
Aside from Vancouver Island, which Britain will fight to keep, sure. The longer the joint-management arrangement continues without it being settled, the more it's going to favor the USA. Heck, British Colombia seriously considered joining the USA in 1867.
 
Aside from Vancouver Island, which Britain will fight to keep, sure. The longer the joint-management arrangement continues without it being settled, the more it's going to favor the USA. Heck, British Colombia seriously considered joining the USA in 1867.

I think people overestimate what the dispute was over. Aside from jingoist election speeches, the US was not pushing aggressively for the entire territory. Most of the dispute centered on the so-called Oregon Triangle, which was basically the territory north of the Columbia River that juts out. What did the US want with the entire thing, after all?
 
Heck, British Colombia seriously considered joining the USA in 1867.

Actually not really. When Canada confederated in 1867 there was a debate about joining the new confederation. There was some advocacy in favour of joining the USA instead but this sentiment was primarily restricted to those that prospered from trade with San Fransciso and the US west coast. The majority of people in BC preferred to join Canada.
 
I think people overestimate what the dispute was over. Aside from jingoist election speeches, the US was not pushing aggressively for the entire territory. Most of the dispute centered on the so-called Oregon Triangle, which was basically the territory north of the Columbia River that juts out. What did the US want with the entire thing, after all?

The only real desire to claim all of Oregon was from northerners who thought the Texas Annexation favored the slave states, and they wanted more land that would be undoubtedly free soil. "Fine, if you get Texas, then we should get all of Oregon" was the basic sentiment. Other than that, all it was basically a negotiating tactic.

The critical thing is that there is no need to settle the border precisely in 1846 except that war with Mexico seemed likely, and President Polk wanted to make sure he'd only fight one country at the time. If the Mexican War can be prevented, then there is less need to define a boundary. Joint occupation can continue which will likely, although not definitively, benefit the US.

I think Shawn Edresen is likely correct. If that happens, at a later point the British may agree to the US having all of Oregon provided Vancouver Island remains in their hands.

The sacrifice for Oregon is that the US has no claims west of the Rio Grande and south of the 32nd parallel (the likely boundary of any deal with Mexico). Since the US has no claims to that area at all, there will be no war with Mexico as there will be no dispute that provides a casus belli. The only way the US might possibly posses that land is if Mexico seeks to sell it for more cash, which is dubious but still possible, later on.
 
The majority of people in BC preferred to join Canada.

That is a pretty hard proposition to back up. There was little interest in joining the US or the Canadians. While it would be fair to say that there was greater interest in joining confederation than being annexed by the US, the fact is that the vast majority of British Columbians wanted nothing to do with either. If you look at the outcomes of the election immediately prior to the Yale Declaration, the confederation league failed to elect a single candidate to the BC Parliament.

The reality is that British Columbia was ordered into confederation, they really had no interest in joining with either the US or the Canadians.
 
The sacrifice for Oregon is that the US has no claims west of the Rio Grande and south of the 32nd parallel (the likely boundary of any deal with Mexico). Since the US has no claims to that area at all, there will be no war with Mexico as there will be no dispute that provides a casus belli. The only way the US might possibly posses that land is if Mexico seeks to sell it for more cash, which is dubious but still possible, later on.

I doubt this. The USA wanted CA and the SW more than they wanted all of OR. If nothing else, the USA can always put the division of OR into limbo while they deal with Mexico, and keep flooding the area with settlers. The USA doesn't have to be antagonistic about it... they can afford to wait more than Britain can...
 
That is a pretty hard proposition to back up. There was little interest in joining the US or the Canadians. While it would be fair to say that there was greater interest in joining confederation than being annexed by the US, the fact is that the vast majority of British Columbians wanted nothing to do with either. If you look at the outcomes of the election immediately prior to the Yale Declaration, the confederation league failed to elect a single candidate to the BC Parliament.

The reality is that British Columbia was ordered into confederation, they really had no interest in joining with either the US or the Canadians.

Fair enough. The point being the once the gold rush was over and the American miners returned to the US there was very little interest in joining the US. The anexation petitions only drew 104 signatures. Given the British concerns over the finances of the colony, amalgamation with Canada was inevitable. Once their sinecures and pensions were assured it was also supported by members of the assembly who were the principal opponents of joining confederation.
 
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