Plausibility check: A Soviet-backed state in North Iran

Hendryk

Banned
During WW2, Iran was put under joint British-Soviet occupation, and after the war, Soviet presence in the country lingered for a while. According to Wikipedia:

During the three years of occupation, Stalin had expanded Soviet political influence in Azerbaijan and the Kurdish area in northwestern Iran. On December 12, 1945, after weeks of violent clashes a Soviet-backed separatist People's Republic of Azerbaijan was founded. The Kurdish People's Republic was also established in late 1945. Iranian government troops sent to reestablish control were blocked by Soviet Red Army units. When the deadline for withdrawal arrived on March 2, 1946, six months after the end of World War II hostilities, the British began to withdraw, but Moscow balked, "citing threats to Soviet security."

Soviet troops did not withdraw from Iran proper until May, 1946 after receiving a promise of petroleum concessions. The Soviet republics in the north were soon overthrown and the oil concessions were revoked.
So the question is: what if the USSR felt that its strategic interests required setting up a satellite state in North Iran, just as in Eastern Europe and the Korean peninsula? How large could such a state be, and what would be the geopolitical consequences?
 
IIRC they tried to set up two states in parallel - an Azeri republic and a Kurdish republic. I would imagine that the former would "request" union with the AzSSR in fairly short order.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
During WW2, Iran was put under joint British-Soviet occupation, and after the war, Soviet presence in the country lingered for a while. According to Wikipedia:


So the question is: what if the USSR felt that its strategic interests required setting up a satellite state in North Iran, just as in Eastern Europe and the Korean peninsula? How large could such a state be, and what would be the geopolitical consequences?

In...1946, or in...1981?
 
In...1946, or in...1981?

I'm assuming in 1946 (which would probably eventually see a unified Azerbaijan) as the target date for Hendryk - that is, having the Azerbaijan People's Government and the Republic of Mahabad survive past 1946.
 

Hendryk

Banned
I'm assuming in 1946 (which would probably eventually see a unified Azerbaijan) as the target date for Hendryk - that is, having the Azerbaijan People's Government and the Republic of Mahabad survive past 1946.
Yes, that's what I have in mind: basically, the USSR behaves in Iran the way it did in other places it controlled just after the end of WW2, instead of pulling out.

I may be wrong but I think it's a question of timing. If the USSR had stalled just a year or two longer before relinquishing its hold on northern Iran, Stalin may have felt confident enough to challenge the US to try and make him. The situation in the Korean peninsula provides a possible template for the subsequent evolution of the situation.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I'm assuming in 1946 (which would probably eventually see a unified Azerbaijan) as the target date for Hendryk - that is, having the Azerbaijan People's Government and the Republic of Mahabad survive past 1946.

Yeah...I would assume the most natural borders would be the northern provinces of Azerbaijan-e-Gharbi, Azerbaijan-e-Sharqi, Zanjan, and Gilan, with the capital at Tabriz. This gives the new Azeri republic a southern river border, Turkey and Iraq to the west and the Caspian to the east.
 
Top