Plausibility Check: A Second Mexican-American War Circa 1917

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Is this idea possible? For a more expansive crisis in American-Mexican affairs over German support of Mexico with the government of Mexico being in general more cooperative with the Germans than it was OTL? What sort of things would be needed to facilitate this? A worse Mexican Revolution (which in a way was a rather large undeclared war between Mexico and the US, since the US basically occupied portions of Mexico even after Huerta told Wilson to get the hell out)?

I would imagine this would largely be a rather speedy conflict, Wilson wouldn't want to waste time in Mexico on the way to a larger war with its biggest supporter, Germany. I can see public sentiment rallying even more against Germany than OTL, which could either result in a USA that's more amenable to harsher provisions of Versailles or (with adequate political exploitation of the situation) more amenable to Wilson's calls for a peace that prevents further conflict. I could really seeing it go either way depending on A. the skill of Wilson and his goals and B. how the political situation in general turns out to be.

 

[The Admiral Hook]

Is this idea possible? For a more expansive crisis in American-Mexican affairs over German support of Mexico with the government of Mexico being in general more cooperative with the Germans than it was OTL? What sort of things would be needed to facilitate this? A worse Mexican Revolution (which in a way was a rather large undeclared war between Mexico and the US, since the US basically occupied portions of Mexico even after Huerta told Wilson to get the hell out)?

I would imagine this would largely be a rather speedy conflict, Wilson wouldn't want to waste time in Mexico on the way to a larger war with its biggest supporter, Germany. I can see public sentiment rallying even more against Germany than OTL, which could either result in a USA that's more amenable to harsher provisions of Versailles or (with adequate political exploitation of the situation) more amenable to Wilson's calls for a peace that prevents further conflict. I could really seeing it go either way depending on A. the skill of Wilson and his goals and B. how the political situation in general turns out to be.

However you end up getting to this, it would be far more epic with TR in the White House than with Wilson, IMHO.

 

[lothaw]

Here's a rather large question. How do you get Mexico to do this without ASBs removing all sense of self presevation in the government?

 

[The Admiral Hook]

Here's a rather large question. How do you get Mexico to do this without ASBs removing all sense of self presevation in the government?

Simple, hollow German promises backed up by initial German military support. It almost happened OTL, actually...

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Here's a rather large question. How do you get Mexico to do this without ASBs removing all sense of self presevation in the government?

Normally I am the one asking this on threads but I have come to the conclusion that governments are not always rational. Certainly Germany was foolish OTL to repeatedly provoke a neutral power whose intervention could decisively end the war for Germany.

However, I do agree that Mexico will not lightly go to war with the United States, but if Mexico came to realize that the US was trouble than they might take measures to counter the US. Huerta certainly disagreed with Wilson's intervention into Mexico during the revolution (which on the US' part was mostly a response to Villa striking into US territory), sending troops into a nation and then refusing to remove them when prompted to do so by the lawful government of Mexico is by any definition an act of war, if at that juncture Mexico felt that this was some sort of American plot to take over Mexico under the guise of putting down a rebellion then they would've been well within their rights to declare war if they felt that this was some sort of plot.

 

[Jim Smitty]

You would need TR as POTUS, not Wilson. If TR was POTUS when the Zimmermann Telegram broke and a Mexican government that believed it would get support from Germany, TR would DOW both Mexico, and Germany. Or if Puncho Villa still raids the US in 1916 I could see TR using that as a DOW. Either way Mexico would be screw.

I See Baja, Yucatan, and northern Mexico to the next major river going to the US.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

My idea was basically to worsen the historical conflict with Mexico that occured in our timeline, though I may give it some sort of precedent in Roosevelt's administration, that is to say, whatever this Event X is, it would largely leave Mexican history unchanged but it would be something that leads to either better German-Mexican relations or worse Mexican-American ones. My objective as of now is to get a Mexican-American War from the Mexican Revolution era intervention by the USA, something where the Mexicans do not have as much faith (well, enough not to fight them when they were basically invading Mexico anyway) in the US, Wilson in my view would've made some territorial demands but he wouldn't have taken the same lion's share as say... Teddy would have.

I am flying with the idea of Teddy Roosevelt making an appearance in this despite having lost to Wilson, maybe even a cabinet position.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Simple, hollow German promises backed up by initial German military support. It almost happened OTL, actually...

Pretty much this.

 

[Faralis]

Pretty much this.

Err no, AFAIK the Mexican goverment never had any intention to declare war ...

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Err no, AFAIK the Mexican goverment never had any intention to declare war ...

Actually Ape's point was that the US and Mexico almost went to war over the revolution, it was a tense situation and although cooler heads prevailed it isn't hard to imagine a less tolerant leader would have taken a very dim view of a US presence on Mexican territory despite Mexico having asked the US to remove its military forces in Mexico.

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

History is filled with decisions by world leaders that would be considered ASB in an ATL. Hell, the entire lead up to WWII was pretty much one ASB level stupid decision after another.

Get the Mexicans to seriously misjudge the Americans, maybe they assume that Wilson doesn't have the balls to commit to an officially declared war, have them assume that the Germans are very likely to win the war(throw in an extra naval victory in there, perhaps a much better showing at Jutland for instance), and have the Germans be very good salesmen to the Mexicans. With those ingredients, you could get Mexico to start something really full scale. Lord knows that the Mexicans had plenty of reason to despise the American Government.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

History is filled with decisions by world leaders that would be considered ASB in an ATL. Hell, the entire lead up to WWII was pretty much one ASB level stupid decision after another.

Get the Mexicans to seriously misjudge the Americans, maybe they assume that Wilson doesn't have the balls to commit to an officially declared war, have them assume that the Germans are very likely to win the war(throw in an extra naval victory in there, perhaps a much better showing at Jutland for instance), and have the Germans be very good salesmen to the Mexicans. With those ingredients, you could get Mexico to start something really full scale. Lord knows that the Mexicans had plenty of reason to despise the American Government.

Pretty much, what went down during the Revolution would have actually been a perfectly acceptable reason for the Mexicans to declare war, though cooler heads likely prevailed when they realized that they would never win a war with the USA.

But anyway given this eventuality you've concocted...

The Germans would be more confident in their position now that they've had a couple of victories against quite possibly the biggest threat they face in the war. This might mean that they actually do back up Mexico with weapons and funding, absolute best of the best case scenario, a very small expeditionary force.

A war with Mexico around the Huerta-Carranza timeframe is going to speed up two things for the USA.

1. War with Germany

2. Mobilization and expansion of the American military.

Wilson's strategy for Mexico is probably going to involve a quick victory that bloodies Mexico's nose and certainly involves a regime change. Wilson was perfectly willing to overthrow regimes he felt were troublesome and Carranza is going to forfeit his trust with Wilson.

However now that I look more at the issue I am leaning towards supporting a more aggressive version of the Tampico Affair. Carranza was very friendly to Wilson and the USA in general and it was under his tenure that Mexico vetoed Germany's supplications of Mexico for a war with the USA. His predecessor Huerta was held in much lower esteem by Wilson, and it's not hard to imagine that that German vessel bound for Veracruz full of arms shipments might have been turned into a very small expeditionary force or one of advisors for the Mexican military if Germany was in a better position in World War One.

Ipso facto, Wilson tells the rest of the Latin American nations that offered mediation to go shove it and goes to war with Mexico with the end goal of ending Huerta's rule over the country (possibly installing Carranza) and quite possibly nabbing Baja. Wilson's going to impose a light peace though, he isn't going to make his own supported ally accept a harsh, taxing peace for the war, especially in light of the consideration that he's about to go pay the Germans back for the war as well.

However this Mexican-American War will not be the only major event this timeline covers. World War One is easily still going to be something the US is involved in, and I think it will still largely end the same way. Germany's alterate timeline victories at sea will be rolled back, perhaps by a liberal application of American naval force combined with the British Royal Navy to undo all of Germany's work and restore the blockade to its full extent.

Whether our peace conference goes the same way, well I don't think a better-performing Germany that's been defeated is liable to be any more well-received by the European powers, but overall little change to the terms imposed and who wants what, we've affected the course of the war but largely achieved the same results and the same nations and leaders are still in the game. I can see this going very badly for Wilson's goals or very well, depending entirely on how he handles it.

That public sentiment will rage against the Germans more so than OTL is almost guaranteed with a Mexican-American War. However, I cannot see Wilson not still fighting hard for the League of Nations. I guess my query is this: if Lodge and all the other hawkish Republicans got exactly what they wanted from a successful war with Mexico and then Germany straight after, will they be more amenable to allowing Wilson to have his League of Nations albeit with perhaps some compromise on certain aspects of it that they feel limit the USA's sovereignty?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Since there is no plausible way to make German aid available to Mexico we're back at that requirement for the Mexican government, at a time when much of the country was in the hands of would-be governments only too happy to befriend new allies in Los Estado Unidos, to embark on suicide.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Since there is no plausible way to make German aid available to Mexico we're back at that requirement for the Mexican government, at a time when much of the country was in the hands of would-be governments only too happy to befriend new allies in Los Estado Unidos, to embark on suicide.

I find it difficult to believe that there was no one point during the Tampico Affair during which considerations were not made to declare war on the United States for invading Veracruz.