Plausibility Check: A Russian Posen Province and a Prussian Lithuania and Courland

CaliGuy

Banned
Would this scenario be plausible? :

In the 1790s, Prussia decides to allow Russia to annex more of Poland (specifically up to Prussia's 1815 eastern borders in our TL) in exchange for Russia allowing Prussia to annex both Lithuania and Courland. Then, after the Napoleonic Wars have ended in 1815 (or whenever), Russia annexes Posen Province (which was previously Prussian) but allows Prussia to keep both Lithuania and Courland.

Anyway, is this plausible?

Also, if so, how would Posen develop under Russian rule and how would both Lithuania and Courland develop under Prussian rule?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, if this scenario is plausible, how will this scenario affect the geopolitics of Europe in the years, decades, and centuries after 1815 (well, other than with the butterfly effect)?
 
Well if Prussia and Russia had their way post napoleon this would have basically happened (except Russia would also kourland and Lithuania)
 
What you're proposing here is an absolute rip-off for Prussia, though!
Prussia Wanted Belgium and Saxony(or just the latter) in exchange for all their non contigus polish land.

Still let's say as russia decided prussia have not navy to ever be a threat, polish land is perfect for agricultural productions that russia needs and prussia would make a baltic corridor and benefit of trade and Courtland fur and mines, so is a win-win for a time.
 
What you're proposing here is an absolute rip-off for Prussia, though!

Actually no. In exchange for all of their Polish land, Prussia would receive Russian support to get their hands in all of Saxony and probably some more land in Mecklenburg, Bavaria or even Hesse-Nassau to unite their eastern provinces with their lands on the Rhineland.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Actually no. In exchange for all of their Polish land, Prussia would receive Russian support to get their hands in all of Saxony and probably some more land in Mecklenburg, Bavaria or even Hesse-Nassau to unite their eastern provinces with their lands on the Rhineland.
In that case, it is probably a good deal for Prussia in the long(er)-run; after all, as far as I know, Saxony ended up becoming one of the most urbanized and industrialized areas of Germany by the start of the 20th century! :)
 
Actually no. In exchange for all of their Polish land, Prussia would receive Russian support to get their hands in all of Saxony and probably some more land in Mecklenburg, Bavaria or even Hesse-Nassau to unite their eastern provinces with their lands on the Rhineland.
This is correct the Tsar wanted as much of Poland as he could gets his hands on and was willing to compensate Prussia with German holdings in their stead and the British wanted the Prussians on the Rhine to act as a shield for Germany against France regardless of what Prussia wanted.
 
In that case, it is probably a good deal for Prussia in the long(er)-run; after all, as far as I know, Saxony ended up becoming one of the most urbanized and industrialized areas of Germany by the start of the 20th century! :)

This exchange would modify the relations of the German States, Austria would be very weary of seeing an even bigger Prussia in Germany, and the relation between Prussia and Russia, there may be a good chance of those two keeping their alliance for much longer, with Austria probably ending as their punching bag.

This is correct the Tsar wanted as much of Poland as he could gets his hands on and was willing to compensate Prussia with German holdings in their stead and the British wanted the Prussians on the Rhine to act as a shield for Germany against France regardless of what Prussia wanted.

For what I read there was one country that wanted France on the Rhine, and strangely enough it was Austria because they believed that they could use France as a shield against Prussia-Russia, which is a bit ironic considering the GB and Russian wanted to use Prussia as a shield against France. Imagine the political and diplomatic possibilities of a British-Russian-Prussian alliance centered on keeping Austria and France out of central and northern Germany.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
This exchange would modify the relations of the German States, Austria would be very weary of seeing an even bigger Prussia in Germany, and the relation between Prussia and Russia, there may be a good chance of those two keeping their alliance for much longer, with Austria probably ending as their punching bag.
Didn't Austria end up as Prussia's punching bag in 1866 in our TL, though? If so, what exactly would be the meaningful difference in this TL?
 
This exchange would modify the relations of the German States, Austria would be very weary of seeing an even bigger Prussia in Germany, and the relation between Prussia and Russia, there may be a good chance of those two keeping their alliance for much longer, with Austria probably ending as their punching bag.



For what I read there was one country that wanted France on the Rhine, and strangely enough it was Austria because they believed that they could use France as a shield against Prussia-Russia, which is a bit ironic considering the GB and Russian wanted to use Prussia as a shield against France. Imagine the political and diplomatic possibilities of a British-Russian-Prussian alliance centered on keeping Austria and France out of central and northern Germany.
I don't think the British will stick around that alliance for too long, once the Prussians finish their ascension their alliance will be more powerful and it will likely prove that it is through war, it's an overwhelming german majority nation in this scenario and will soon look like the natural leader of the region to German nationalists and leads Prussia on a path to war with France and Austria whether their allied or not.
So should we get the this big war between Austria-France-(ottomans?) Vs Prussia-Russia-Britain
Will likely go even more tits up for the Habsburgs and French than OTL especially since if the italians get involved it's rather clear which side they'll be joining.
Overall it's sounds like France will Cowed the Austrians outright dissolved or turned into a rump and the British will be suddenly realising maybe mitternich was onto something when he expressed worries about the Russo-Prussian alliance.
 
Didn't Austria end up as Prussia's punching bag in 1866 in our TL, though? If so, what exactly would be the meaningful difference in this TL?
It would be even worse, if the Russians are involved they are going to be loosing at the minimum their partition
 
Didn't Austria end up as Prussia's punching bag in 1866 in our TL, though? If so, what exactly would be the meaningful difference in this TL?

For all their troubles those two didn't ended up enemies in 1815 because the status quo inside of the German Confederation was kept, Prussia and Austria had a equilibrium inside the Confederation, with more Prussian land inside the Confederation, Prussia may gain more influence early on, but more important is that there is a good chance that the relations between Austria and Russia to get stained, which may make Prussia and Russia more willing to keep their alliance. Now with Russia eventually gaining interest in the Balkans and with Prussia gaining interest in Germany they may join the two goals into one, a war against Austria for Prussia to unify the North German States and for Russia to establish their hegemony over the Balkans.

I don't think the British will stick around that alliance for too long, once the Prussians finish their ascension their alliance will be more powerful and it will likely prove that it is through war, it's an overwhelming german majority nation in this scenario and will soon look like the natural leader of the region to German nationalists and leads Prussia on a path to war with France and Austria whether their allied or not.
So should we get the this big war between Austria-France-(ottomans?) Vs Prussia-Russia-Britain
Will likely go even more tits up for the Habsburgs and French than OTL especially since if the italians get involved it's rather clear which side they'll be joining.
Overall it's sounds like France will Cowed the Austrians outright dissolved or turned into a rump and the British will be suddenly realising maybe mitternich was onto something when he expressed worries about the Russo-Prussian alliance.

I agree I can only think that the British would stay on the alliance for a while, but I think that they may be replaced by Italy, when they unify. Now I think, and this is a guess so take it for it's face value, that Austria may get a very bad end in this TL, considering that a man like Wilhelm I may insist in annexing Bohemia, something that the Russian may accept in exchange for more carvings in the Austrian Empire, so Austria may end as the new Commonwealth Cake. France may get many bruises, but I doubt that they would lose more than OTL.
 
For all their troubles those two didn't ended up enemies in 1815 because the status quo inside of the German Confederation was kept, Prussia and Austria had a equilibrium inside the Confederation, with more Prussian land inside the Confederation, Prussia may gain more influence early on, but more important is that there is a good chance that the relations between Austria and Russia to get stained, which may make Prussia and Russia more willing to keep their alliance. Now with Russia eventually gaining interest in the Balkans and with Prussia gaining interest in Germany they may join the two goals into one, a war against Austria for Prussia to unify the North German States and for Russia to establish their hegemony over the Balkans.



I agree I can only think that the British would stay on the alliance for a while, but I think that they may be replaced by Italy, when they unify. Now I think, and this is a guess so take it for it's face value, that Austria may get a very bad end in this TL, considering that a man like Wilhelm I may insist in annexing Bohemia, something that the Russian may accept in exchange for more carvings in the Austrian Empire, so Austria may end as the new Commonwealth Cake. France may get many bruises, but I doubt that they would lose more than OTL.
I agree I would say french losses hinge on the level of Italian involvement.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
For all their troubles those two didn't ended up enemies in 1815 because the status quo inside of the German Confederation was kept, Prussia and Austria had a equilibrium inside the Confederation, with more Prussian land inside the Confederation, Prussia may gain more influence early on, but more important is that there is a good chance that the relations between Austria and Russia to get stained, which may make Prussia and Russia more willing to keep their alliance. Now with Russia eventually gaining interest in the Balkans and with Prussia gaining interest in Germany they may join the two goals into one, a war against Austria for Prussia to unify the North German States and for Russia to establish their hegemony over the Balkans.
If Russia becomes the undisputed hegemon of the Balkans, though, wouldn't Prussia (and rump Austria as well) have no reason to quarrel with Russia for a while?
 
If Russia becomes the undisputed hegemon of the Balkans, though, wouldn't Prussia (and rump Austria as well) have no reason to quarrel with Russia for a while?

Can't really see why. Their areas of influence wouldn't get in conflict in the Balkans, considering that Prussia had no interest in the area and no allies as well, it's sure that conflict between the two would happen eventually but if both avoid the areas of influence of the other, Prussia out of the Ottoman Empire and the Balkans and Russia out of Germany and to an extent Scandinavia, the interests of the two countries wouldn't enter in conflict.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Can't really see why. Their areas of influence wouldn't get in conflict in the Balkans, considering that Prussia had no interest in the area and no allies as well, it's sure that conflict between the two would happen eventually but if both avoid the areas of influence of the other, Prussia out of the Ottoman Empire and the Balkans and Russia out of Germany and to an extent Scandinavia, the interests of the two countries wouldn't enter in conflict.
OK; thus, could we see an eventual Prusso-Russian alliance in order to preserve autocracy in Eastern Europe in this TL?
 
OK; thus, could we see an eventual Prusso-Russian alliance in order to preserve autocracy in Eastern Europe in this TL?
Why does everyone else always equate Prussia with autocracy? Prussia was a constitutional monarchy from 1850 onward, not a terribly liberal one but still.
 
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