Plausibility Check: A Mid-20th Century World War I?

CaliGuy

Banned
Is this scenario plausible? :

Cooler heads prevail in 1914 and thus WWI doesn't break out back then. After Russia's Great Military Program is completed in 1917, Britain moves away from France and Russia and towards Germany for balance-of-power reasons. Over the next couple of decades, a broad anti-Russian alliance is formed with Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Japan as members. (Both Italy and Romania remain nominal but unreliable allies of Germany in this TL.) As the decades go on, Russia's military and economic power significantly increases (in large part due to large-scale French investments in Russia). In turn, this results in Russia gradually becoming much more assertive in various parts of the world (something that might very well still be true even if Tsarism eventually collapses in Russia in this TL; after all, even a non-Tsarist Russian government might very well be pro-expansionism).

Anyway, around the middle of the 20th century (as in, around 1950; for the record, the development of nuclear weapons is delayed by at least a couple of decades in this TL), Russia feels sufficiently confident in its military abilities to begin undermining the international order. Thus, Russia sparks some crisis somewhere worldwide in an attempt to expand its own territory and causes the broad anti-Russian alliance mentioned above to declare war on Russia. Afterwards, France enters this war on the side of its Russian ally. Thus, World War I breaks out about 35 years later in this TL than it does in our TL.

Anyway, is such a scenario plausible?
 
Oo, that's very similar to my "Tsar Michael The Great" timeline from the days of yore. Lots of minor wars, shuffling of the pieces etc takes place, but no world war until the 1950s (with very different sides to yours)

Russia in China is always a good thing to look at if they start to feel confident and over-reach themselves
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Oo, that's very similar to my "Tsar Michael The Great" timeline from the days of yore. Lots of minor wars, shuffling of the pieces etc takes place, but no world war until the 1950s (with very different sides to yours)

Do you have a link to your TL, please?

Also, basically, my own TL assumes that the general alliance structure of Europe (with the exception of Britain, of course) will remain intact until the mid-20th century and that, just like Germany was feeling sufficient confident to gamble on a Great War in 1914 in our TL, Russia will feel sufficiently confident to gamble on a Great War around 1950 in this TL. After all, a Russia with 300+ million people in 1950 along with France's 40-45 million people during this time should have something like a 2-to-1 population advantage over Germany and Austria-Hungary (if A-H remains intact up to 1950, that is)--thus possibly causing Russia and France that they can quickly knock out both Germany and A-H using overwhelming force while having Russia play defense in both the Middle East and the Far East.

Russia in China is always a good thing to look at if they start to feel confident and over-reach themselves

Are you talking about the Chinese or about the Russians feeling confident and overreaching themselves?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
For the record, the expectation of a quick victory in Europe would be what motivates Russia and France to gamble on a Great War around 1950 in this TL; else, they probably wouldn't be willing to gamble on this.
 
Do you have a link to your TL, please?

Also, basically, my own TL assumes that the general alliance structure of Europe (with the exception of Britain, of course) will remain intact until the mid-20th century and that, just like Germany was feeling sufficient confident to gamble on a Great War in 1914 in our TL, Russia will feel sufficiently confident to gamble on a Great War around 1950 in this TL. After all, a Russia with 300+ million people in 1950 along with France's 40-45 million people during this time should have something like a 2-to-1 population advantage over Germany and Austria-Hungary (if A-H remains intact up to 1950, that is)--thus possibly causing Russia and France that they can quickly knock out both Germany and A-H using overwhelming force while having Russia play defense in both the Middle East and the Far East.



Are you talking about the Chinese or about the Russians feeling confident and overreaching themselves?

It was reposted in archive here
http://alternatehistoryfictory.yuku.com/
but I might have deleted it in preparation for making it into a book, which in the end I decided wouldn't work

I meant that the situation in China could lead to a strong Russian intervention, and probably more than once. Latterly, if they think the balance is tipping away from them they could think they are so strong they can intervene again with impunity, and that couold be their mistake
 
With the advancing technology and little or no tactical advancement both sides will get their armies slaughtered within the first year.You could see a white peace in three years after both sides start running out of 12 year olds to draft.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
With the advancing technology and little or no tactical advancement both sides will get their armies slaughtered within the first year.You could see a white peace in three years after both sides start running out of 12 year olds to draft.
I don't think that either of the two sides in this war are going to quickly run out of men to draft, though; indeed, the Soviet Union's experience in World War II in our TL shows just how much casualties Russia can take while still continuing to fight against an extremely formidable enemy.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, the Anglo-German side might be able to blockade France into submission (after all, several years of food shortages won't exactly be pretty for France) and then to exclusively focus on Russia.
 
I don't think that either of the two sides in this war are going to quickly run out of men to draft, though; indeed, the Soviet Union's experience in World War II in our TL shows just how much casualties Russia can take while still continuing to fight against an extremely formidable enemy.
"Be careful with your men I don't have anymore" Stalin to Zhukov before the battle of Berlin.
 
Also, the Anglo-German side might be able to blockade France into submission (after all, several years of food shortages won't exactly be pretty for France) and then to exclusively focus on Russia.

I would think Britain needs to descend on France, whether simply by sending forces via N Germany, or by landing either there or in the Low Countries.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I would think Britain needs to descend on France, whether simply by sending forces via N Germany, or by landing either there or in the Low Countries.
Agreed; however, a blockade can be useful by reducing French morale, et cetera.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Nobody had a major war in over 50 years it will be a very costly learning curve.
Yes; however, there might still be some wars abroad during this time from which the European Great Powers can learn.

Also, though, the Soviet military faced a steep learning curve in World War II and yet ultimately managed to win World War II.
 
Top