Plausibility Check: A Japanese Conquest of the Philippines in 1897-1898?

CaliGuy

Banned
Would it have been plausible for Japan to conclude in 1897-1898 that a Spanish-American War can occur very soon and that thus Japan should seize the moment right now by quickly declaring war on Spain and then conquering the Philippines before the Americans can do it?

Any thoughts on this?
 
If the Japanese would be interested iit would be before the Spanish American war around 1896 when rebels asked for their help. The Japanese can help expel the Spanish before otl Spanish American war but cannot de facto conquer the Philippines before 1898, meaning both expel the Spanish and remove the organized rebels.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If the Japanese would be interested iit would be before the Spanish American war around 1896 when rebels asked for their help. The Japanese can help expel the Spanish before otl Spanish American war but cannot de facto conquer the Philippines before 1898, meaning both expel the Spanish and remove the organized rebels.
Wouldn't simply expelling the Spanish be good enough for before 1898, though? After all, can't Japan remove the organized rebels after 1898?

Also, why exactly didn't Japan agree to help the Filipino rebels back in 1896?
 
Wouldn't simply expelling the Spanish be good enough for before 1898, though? After all, can't Japan remove the organized rebels after 1898?

Removing the Spanish will just remove Spanish troops loyal to Spain but not rebels who will control most areas.

The us in otl did remove the rebels within 3 years starting from a surprise attack in 1899. Assuming the Japanese did the same thing, and the Spanish Japanese war started 1896 and takes a year to win or less. That would give the Japanese around late 1899 to 1900 to finish of the rebels assuming they have the same success as the USA.

Also, why exactly didn't Japan agree to help the Filipino rebels back in 1896?
all I know is the side of Philippines wherein Japan never agreed to help the Philippines fully. Don't know why Japan decided not to help.

For Japan, based on my opinion, it may be the British pressure or Meiji government willingness to not overextend a few years after acquiring Taiwan. Since we are talking about the more calculated Meiji government than the more suicidal Showa government.
 
Should Japan go to war against Spain, wouldn't other powers like Germany and Russia threaten Japan to extract concessions in the Philippines or elsewhere?

Much like they did during the "Triple Intervention" after the Sino-Japanese War.

Russia was a regional rival to Japan, while Kaiser Wilhelm II was racist towards the Japanese and also trying to curry favour with the Russians, and also scheming to gain Spanish colonies in the Pacific region.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Removing the Spanish will just remove Spanish troops loyal to Spain but not rebels who will control most areas.

The us in otl did remove the rebels within 3 years starting from a surprise attack in 1899. Assuming the Japanese did the same thing, and the Spanish Japanese war started 1896 and takes a year to win or less. That would give the Japanese around late 1899 to 1900 to finish of the rebels assuming they have the same success as the USA.

all I know is the side of Philippines wherein Japan never agreed to help the Philippines fully. Don't know why Japan decided not to help.

For Japan, based on my opinion, it may be the British pressure or Meiji government willingness to not overextend a few years after acquiring Taiwan. Since we are talking about the more calculated Meiji government than the more suicidal Showa government.
Thanks for all of this information! :)
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Should Japan go to war against Spain, wouldn't other powers like Germany and Russia threaten Japan to extract concessions in the Philippines or elsewhere?

Much like they did during the "Triple Intervention" after the Sino-Japanese War.

Russia was a regional rival to Japan, while Kaiser Wilhelm II was racist towards the Japanese and also trying to curry favour with the Russians, and also scheming to gain Spanish colonies in the Pacific region.
Excellent point about the Triple Intervention! :)
 
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