Plausibility check: A "good" treaty of Versailles

Gents,

Every time someone squeals about how "harsh" the Treaty of Versailles was to Germany and how it was a little more than a "dictat" by the victorious Entente, I remember the Treaty of Brest Litovsk and laugh laugh laugh...

Follow that link and take a good hard look at the kind of "peace" Wilhelmine Germany made when they had the whip hand.

You want a "good" treaty of Versailles? Harsh, lenient, or middling, it doesn't matter what you dictate or negotiate with Germany, unless you put Entente boots on the ground in Germany and enforce the treaty for the period in question Germany will still grouse about how it's somehow "unfair".

The real problem with Versailles was that Germany forgot she actually lost the war and the other powers didn't bother reminding her of that fact.


Bill


I agree. The best way to prevent another World War would have been for the Entente (Britain, France, USA, Belgium, ok maybe Italy too) to basically do what the Allies did in 1945-1949, i.e. occupying Germany and dividing it and Berlin into occupation zones ("You are now leaving the U.S. zone" etc.).

But apparently that kind of behaviour wasn't "civilized" or something back in 1918-19.
 
On November 11, 1918, the Landtag of Alsace-Lorraine, the freely and secretly elected parliament, proclaimed independence. Thus I'm not sure that France, which occupied A-L in the following days, would ever agree to a plebiscite in A-L.
(They didn't even go for one in 1871 - because that would have raised the question of a plebiscite in Nizza and Savoy, which France had just appropriated from Italy, as well.)

The problem with the ToV was Wilson. The Germans, when asking for an armistice, were under the impression they would get a Wilsonian 14-Points peace. When they finally realised that it would be a Clemenceau peace it was already too late to resume hostilities.

Nevertheless, the German delegation travelling to Versailles arrived with the expectation to negotiate a treaty. They were utterly shocked when they learned that there were to be no negoatiations.

Territorial losses and reparations were not the real problem, these were normal and expected. But being presented a dictate that had absolutely no similarity with Wilson's 14-P's - and was a gross break with traditional diplomatic custom at the end of a war, did the job.
Thus, the Germans never recognised the ToV as a real treaty.
 
I agree. The best way to prevent another World War would have been for the Entente (Britain, France, USA, Belgium, ok maybe Italy too) to basically do what the Allies did in 1945-1949, i.e. occupying Germany and dividing it and Berlin into occupation zones ("You are now leaving the U.S. zone" etc.).

But apparently that kind of behaviour wasn't "civilized" or something back in 1918-19.

This is utterly unrealistic. First, there would have been lots and lots of resistance by civilians against a 1945-style occupation. Second, why should Italy, of all nations, be interested or able to occupy any territory it never wanted and does not care about, while their irredentist claims against Yugoslavia are not fulfilled. And the US was too isolationist, and Britain was not really in the mood for anything like this as well.
 
Gents,
You want a "good" treaty of Versailles? Harsh, lenient, or middling, it doesn't matter what you dictate or negotiate with Germany, unless you put Entente boots on the ground in Germany and enforce the treaty for the period in question Germany will still grouse about how it's somehow "unfair".


Trouble was, with the Great War such a traumatic memory, that just wasn't going to be possible except in the most extreme circumstances.

Note that the French government which occupied the Ruhr in 1923 got shafted at the polls in 1924. Despite the occupation having been a reasonable success, the French people just didn't want to know. And if that was how they felt, what could be expected from the British or Americans?

The argument for a more lenient peace is not the effect upon the Germans (I agree they'd have found something else to moan about) but upon the Allies. We needed a treaty which gave Germany all the territory which self determination by any stretch entitled her to, so that, if she ever tried to march again, she would have to start by invading somewhere not inhabited by Germans, and to which she had no shadow of ethnic claim. Whether even this would have been sufficient to provoke a response, I dont know, but it was certainly necessary, given a public mood which ensured that, given any halfway respectable excuse for giving in, the ex-Allies would take it.
 
About the German territorial losses, I suppose Germany will have to give up their colonies and give France, Belgium and Denmark the same territories as in the OTL.
Things could have been somewhat different in Eastern Europe, where Germany didn't lose. Posen probably goes to Poland and some areas in Silesia and Prussia will have plebiscites, but most of Silesia and Prussia, including Danzig will stay German. This might be more acceptable for Germany, but this will lead to more disappointed Poles.
 

Larrikin

Banned
Gents,

Every time someone squeals about how "harsh" the Treaty of Versailles was to Germany and how it was a little more than a "dictat" by the victorious Entente, I remember the Treaty of Brest Litovsk and laugh laugh laugh...

Follow that link and take a good hard look at the kind of "peace" Wilhelmine Germany made when they had the whip hand.

You want a "good" treaty of Versailles? Harsh, lenient, or middling, it doesn't matter what you dictate or negotiate with Germany, unless you put Entente boots on the ground in Germany and enforce the treaty for the period in question Germany will still grouse about how it's somehow "unfair".

The real problem with Versailles was that Germany forgot she actually lost the war and the other powers didn't bother reminding her of that fact.


Bill

Exactly, a major part of this was the fact that the only troops that marched down the Unter den Linden with colours flying were German. Marching an Allied army down there with not just British and French troops, but all the colonial and Dominion forces represented, Italian, Serbian, US, Portugese, even Japanese would have said to the Germans "see, you took on the world and got your arses kicked, deal with it".

The problem with the ToV was it was neither fish nor fowl. Either forgive and forget, aside from France getting back A/L (not going to happen), or hammer it home, that way the German people understand that they really, truly lost.
 
On November 11, 1918, the Landtag of Alsace-Lorraine, the freely and secretly elected parliament, proclaimed independence. Thus I'm not sure that France, which occupied A-L in the following days, would ever agree to a plebiscite in A-L.

I was under the impression that the Strasbourg Soviet proclaimed independence, whereas the Landtag only proclaimed itslef the sole legal authority of the territory. In December, at any rate (that is admittedly after the French army reached the Rhine), the Landtag, whatever its earlier decision, declared union with France.

(They didn't even go for one in 1871 - because that would have raised the question of a plebiscite in Nizza and Savoy, which France had just appropriated from Italy, as well.)

That's silly. You're speaking as though one were on offer. The French would undoudtedly have given away Savoy and Nice to get Alsace (an exhange which is obviously mordibly stupid for German policy): they offered practically their entire colonial empire.

The problem with the ToV was Wilson. The Germans, when asking for an armistice, were under the impression they would get a Wilsonian 14-Points peace. When they finally realised that it would be a Clemenceau peace it was already too late to resume hostilities.

I've never seen anyone point out which Point was so flagrantly violated.

1- Unrealistically idealist, but this applies not only to Germany. One could say that a diktat like Versailles was not "openly arrived at", but I actually agree with you that even the pretense of negotiations would have improved matters.

2, 3 - Not within the scope of the treaty with Germany.

4 - An objective that was (partly) betrayed by Germany's neighbours, but nevertheless German disarmament was actually stipulated by the Points.

5 - Another one betrayed, but it's not like the Germans cared much about their colonies or were going to keep them.

6 - Flagrantly violated by the Entente, with Germany as their agent in at least one case. Oddly, people rarely point out that it was Russia that was really let down by the 14 Points.

7 - Just, predictable, implemented.

8 - The cession of Alsace-Lorraine was, again, stipulated.

9 - Well, this point was violated. Austria should have kept South Tyrol, but I hear no concern about its fate, never mind that of Croats and Slovenes.

10 - This is the tricky one. It doesn't really mean anything much. I think you could certainly argue that both Anschluss and the Sudetenland were contrary to the spirit of the demand, but I really doubt Germans actually expected to be given strategic territories by the peace settlement.

11 - Essentially impossible, but not related to Germany.

12 - Again, of no concern to Germany.

13 - Poland, with corridor, stipulated.

14 - Implemented; the Germans were just left out.

Perhaps not the spirit, but the (rather vague) letter of the points pretty much were adhered to.
 
Exactly, a major part of this was the fact that the only troops that marched down the Unter den Linden with colours flying were German. Marching an Allied army down there with not just British and French troops, but all the colonial and Dominion forces represented, Italian, Serbian, US, Portugese, even Japanese would have said to the Germans "see, you took on the world and got your arses kicked, deal with it".

The problem with the ToV was it was neither fish nor fowl. Either forgive and forget, aside from France getting back A/L (not going to happen), or hammer it home, that way the German people understand that they really, truly lost.

And once the UK, the US and Italy have left, Germany shall be plotting for round two as in OTL.
 
I dissent.
Treating Germany as france was treated in the Vienna Conference 1815 (no territorial loss respect to pre-war boundaries, limited sanctions) would have turned Germany in a protector of the status quo instead of having turned it in a perturbator.

Regarding Great War, it was certainly a very trumatic affaire, but was it really worse than the Napoleonic wars?
(I'm speaking of the psycological impact, of course, not of the actual loss of life).

Reading some 1813 British treaty about Napoleon, I found it remarky similar to 1940 depictions of Hitler
 
I dissent.
Treating Germany as france was treated in the Vienna Conference 1815 (no territorial loss respect to pre-war boundaries, limited sanctions) would have turned Germany in a protector of the status quo instead of having turned it in a perturbator.

Regarding Great War, it was certainly a very trumatic affaire, but was it really worse than the Napoleonic wars?
(I'm speaking of the psycological impact, of course, not of the actual loss of life).

Reading some 1813 British treaty about Napoleon, I found it remarky similar to 1940 depictions of Hitler

Germany will at least have to give up Alsace-Lorraine (perhaps Northern Schleswig?) and a part of or all their colonies.
 
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I like this idea. Perhaps the war guilt could be placed on the back of the regime rather than on the nation as a whole. Instead of territorial changes there could be constitutional ones. e.g. The empire maintained but the Kaiser forced to abdicate, a new constitution that makes the chancellor dependent on the legislature, the handing over of a few military leaders for trial (regarding Belgium etc.)
 
I like this idea. Perhaps the war guilt could be placed on the back of the regime rather than on the nation as a whole. Instead of territorial changes there could be constitutional ones. e.g. The empire maintained but the Kaiser forced to abdicate, a new constitution that makes the chancellor dependent on the legislature, the handing over of a few military leaders for trial (regarding Belgium etc.)

Do you mean that the Empire turns into a Republic or that the Kaiser abdicates in favour of his successor and that the constitution of the German Empire is going to be rewritten?
 
Germany will at least have to give up Alsace-Lorraine (perhaps Northern Schleswig?) and a part of or all their colonies.

Regarding A-L I understand the revanche problem, but at least a plebiscite should be organized.
anyway, at least 1870 boundaries should have been preserved (sorry for the poland)

Why to incamerate her colonies?
They were insignificant: they would not make the new owner richer and would make the germans more hostile.
 
@Aracnid
"Without Reparations you aren't going to see the 1923 Hyperinflation,"

The inflation was well under way already in 1919. It was also used by the German Government to "pay off" (invalidate) the internal debt consisting of war bonds.
Thus, Germany will probably still run into economic crisis in the early 20s, especially if for some reason there still is a Ruhr crisis.


@IBC
"I like how the solution to a problem brought about in large part by Italian irredentism, imperialism, and intransigence is to enlarge Italy. Where did this forum gets its staunchly pro-Italian, anti-Slav attitude?"

E U R O F E D

Just kidding.

@Bill Cameron
Basically right, but read the link carefully and you see that the Sovjet negotiators did what the Germans in Versailles were too smart to do: Stand up, declare that this is no base for peace and don't care about the armistice.

Generally, though, you and others are right about Germany not being ready to accept defeat. Nevertheless, I wonder if "Entente boots" and all their consequences would have given you the desired (peaceful) results...because...

@John Farson
...it would not necessarily be uncivilized, but it would be a bloodbath for everyone involved.


@Mikestone
Very good idea, absolutely sensible. I fear, though, that the "non-cleansed" Europe of pre-1939 is too much of an ethnic quagmire to prevent claims.

@the most recent posts:

Don't get too lenient. It would not happen.
 
I was thinking the Kaiser abdicates in favor of another Hohenzollern. The new constitution would give the succeeding Kaisers about as much political power as the British monarch uses by convention (though QEII's actual powers are rather impressive, that's the subject for another WI). I think dividing Prussia into several Lander would also help the nation's stability.
 
Don't get too lenient. It would not happen.

In Vienna it DID happen. (And Napoleon was not exactly loved by the winners)
And France was turned in a factor of stability in Europe instead of being a monster willing to eat weaker nations as it was depicted before (and as it actually was, at a certain degree )
 
In Vienna it DID happen. (And Napoleon was not exactly loved by the winners)
And France was turned in a factor of stability in Europe instead of being a monster willing to eat weaker nations as it was depicted before (and as it actually was, at a certain degree )

Except for the period 1848 to 1870 when those frog-eating ninnies put another Bonaparte in charge, spent a decade or two disturbing the peace (sometimes with British collaboration, I'm ashamed to say), and finally brought another foreign army down to visit Paris. Thankfully, the French people got the message, and since 1871 have stuck to mostly very dull and unadventurous Republics - far better for public health.
 
Except for the period 1848 to 1870 when those frog-eating ninnies put another Bonaparte in charge, spent a decade or two disturbing the peace (sometimes with British collaboration, I'm ashamed to say), and finally brought another foreign army down to visit Paris. Thankfully, the French people got the message, and since 1871 have stuck to mostly very dull and unadventurous Republics - far better for public health.

The Entente Cordiale was a factor of stability in Europe, regardless from the fact that france was an Empire or a Republic.
e.g., Crimea.
Even when it was involved in shifting of boundaries (as per the italian questions) it had a dampening effect, limiting the losses of Austria-Hungary to Lombardy
 
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I was thinking the Kaiser abdicates in favor of another Hohenzollern. The new constitution would give the succeeding Kaisers about as much political power as the British monarch uses by convention (though QEII's actual powers are rather impressive, that's the subject for another WI). I think dividing Prussia into several Lander would also help the nation's stability.

Perhaps Prussia has to give up all their post 1815 territorial gains within Germany. This would mean restoring the kingdom of Hanover, finding a solution for the electorate of Hesse, Nassau, Frankfurt, Schleswig, Holstein and Saxe-Lauenburg.

A possible solution would be to keep the Prussian provinces of Schleswig-Holstein (Schleswig, Holstein and Saxe-Lauenburg) and Hesse-Nassau (Hesse, Nassau and Frankfurt) and turn them into member states of the German Empire with their own constitutional monarch or alternatively republican member states of the German Empire, however if Germany stays a monarchy, then it would make more sense to turn them into monarchies instead of republics.
 

Emera78

Banned
This might be more acceptable for Germany, but this will lead to more disappointed Poles.
By the summer and fall of 1918 both Czech and Polish governments were reckognised as members of Entente.
Since the original demand of the poster in this thread was:
Was it actually possible to have a treaty of Versailles with a POD after Nov,11,1918 that prevents WWII, satisfy the victors, and at least be somewhat acceptable to the defeated?
I suggest that its conditions are not satisfied, and the answer to original question is that such arrangment is not possible.
 
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