Plausibility Check: A German-Ukrainian alliance after a German WWI victory?

CaliGuy

Banned
This might require a German Kaiser with a bit more brains for this to successfully work; however, here goes:

Would it have been plausible for Germany (with a sufficiently smart leadership) to do this? :

-Avoid resuming unrestricted submarine warfare; basically, have the Kaiser block Hindy and Ludy from doing this in early 1917 due to his belief that it is better to wait than to act imprudently.

(In turn, this causes U.S. President Woodrow Wilson to stick to his earlier desire to cut off all U.S. loans to the Entente--thus causing the Entente (or at least Britain) to be put in a much worse financial situation to the extent that they can no longer afford to fight effectively in World War I. Thus, Germany ends up winning WWI in the West by default as a result of Entente/British bankruptcy and then goes for the kill in the East and ends up winning WWI there as well.)

-In the East, Germany still acquires Brest-Litovsk-style territorial gains--with one significant change: In this TL, Germany decides to create an independent, democratic (albeit possibly led by a constitutional monarch, such as Vasyl von Habsburg) Ukraine in order to both weaken Russia and prevent Ukraine from being too much of a burden on Germany.

(Indeed, in this TL, Ukraine would have its own large army, et cetera.)

Basically, the logic of this is quite simple: Germany cannot sustain a Ukrainian puppet state for very long due to its limited resources; however, Germany still wants an independent Ukraine to weaken Russia. Thus, Germany will allow Ukraine to run its own affairs--with its own large army and everything--in exchange for an anti-Russian alliance with Germany. Plus, the Ukrainians can also help Germany suppress the Poles, Balts, and Romanians in their neighborhood.

Also, having Ukraine as a genuinely independent ally would allow Germany to be compensated for Austria-Hungary's upcoming implosion as well as to have a large source of cheap labor which is Christian but not Catholic.

Anyway, would this scenario be realistic with a smarter German Kaiser being in charge of Germany back in the 1910s and 1920s?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, it might be beneficial for Germany to successfully bully Austria-Hungary--which is imploding anyway in this TL--to give Galicia to Ukraine in order to facilitate the faster spread of Ukrainian nationalism in Ukraine; after all, a Ukraine which is full of Ukrainian nationalism is certainly going to be very hard for Russia to ever put back into its fold.
 
I feel this will ultimately be the result anyway, Germany will likely loosen the reigns of the Ruthenians as they have to focus on issues closer to home.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I feel this will ultimately be the result anyway, Germany will likely loosen the reigns of the Ruthenians as they have to focus on issues closer to home.
Well, yeah, they'll either do that or have Ukraine fall back into the hands of the Russians.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If Germany is smart enough to give Ukraine genuine independence and thus to avoid overstretching itself, though, then Russia will probably be crippled for decades to come; after all, Russia's post-Brest-Litovsk population (100-110 million) would probably be about the same as the combined population of Germany (65 million) and Ukraine (35-40 million) back then!
 
Yeah, Germany will let Ukraine annex eastern Galicia if Austria breaks up. With Berlin's kneejerk Polonophobia, it would be very out of character to give Poland any region which is less than 90% ethnically Polish (as in OTL's award of Chelm region to Ukraine).

It is, however, not very likely for Berlin to tolerate Ukraine as a democratic state and equal partner (as opposed to a reactionary puppet dictatorship). You'd need to radically change the mentality of the Kaiser and the military elites and probably a few other policy-makers besides.
 
If Germany is smart enough to give Ukraine genuine independence and thus to avoid overstretching itself, though, then Russia will probably be crippled for decades to come; after all, Russia's post-Brest-Litovsk population (100-110 million) would probably be about the same as the combined population of Germany (65 million) and Ukraine (35-40 million) back then!
May not even have to be smart for it, when the reality of locking down Europe sets in Germany will be thankful for those handful of countries that prefer it's dominance over Russian oppression and anyone who can help them lock down the poles will be very useful.
Personally I think Germany would come to find Lithuanian, Ukrainian, Bulgarian and Croatian states very useful In holding down europe provided they don't sour those country's opinions of them.
 
As I have said elsewhere, German plans for the east in WWI were most definitely not Generalplan Ost. The Germans had no desire to try and rule, directly 30-40 million non-Germans in the Ukraine. I expect the Ukraine would have its economic, military, and foreign policies closely tied to those of the German Empire.
 
Yeah, Germany will let Ukraine annex eastern Galicia if Austria breaks up. With Berlin's kneejerk Polonophobia, it would be very out of character to give Poland any region which is less than 90% ethnically Polish (as in OTL's award of Chelm region to Ukraine).

It is, however, not very likely for Berlin to tolerate Ukraine as a democratic state and equal partner (as opposed to a reactionary puppet dictatorship). You'd need to radically change the mentality of the Kaiser and the military elites and probably a few other policy-makers besides.
Having it be mostly left alone to do whatever it wants as long as it doesn't conflict with German interests is not the same as the Germans thinking of the Ukrainians as equals
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yeah, Germany will let Ukraine annex eastern Galicia if Austria breaks up. With Berlin's kneejerk Polonophobia, it would be very out of character to give Poland any region which is less than 90% ethnically Polish (as in OTL's award of Chelm region to Ukraine).

Completely agreed.

It is, however, not very likely for Berlin to tolerate Ukraine as a democratic state and equal partner (as opposed to a reactionary puppet dictatorship). You'd need to radically change the mentality of the Kaiser and the military elites and probably a few other policy-makers besides.

Agreed; indeed, what we need to change is the mentality of Germany's leadership. Specifically, they need to become aware early enough that a puppet Ukraine isn't going to be sustainable in the long(er)-run and that thus it's better to have an independent (but friendly and allied) Ukraine than to have Ukraine go back into Russia's fold. After all, if Ukraine goes back into Russia's fold, then the belief might be (without the hindsight of nuclear weapons) that World War I's sacrifices were mostly for nothing and that Russia will once again try to dominate Europe in a generation or two! :(
 

CaliGuy

Banned
May not even have to be smart for it, when the reality of locking down Europe sets in Germany will be thankful for those handful of countries that prefer it's dominance over Russian oppression and anyone who can help them lock down the poles will be very useful.
Personally I think Germany would come to find Lithuanian, Ukrainian, Bulgarian and Croatian states very useful In holding down europe provided they don't sour those country's opinions of them.
Agreed; a smart Germany will take advantage of any allies that it can get.

Plus, Ukraine can be a good source of non-Catholic immigrants to Germany in this TL if Germany will ever experience a labor shortage. :)
 
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