Plausibility Check: A Franco-German Partition of the Low Countries in the Late 1800s?

If the prospect is going against France and Germany combined, then the prize is not worth it. So many relations existed between different rulers of so many different crowns that, if what you assume is true, would mean that no wars should have been possible.
It is far easier to act as a host for his nephew than fight a war in which France and Germany fight together (a combination which Russia + Britain cannot beat).
Well, it's all a bit vague of course, given our premise is ill worked out. Who says France isn't gonna leave Germany hanging when they've finished creating a perfect storm (of the German armies rapidly surging east to prevent a possible Russian intervention while Britain is blockading its coast), or even stab them in the backs?
Presumably something in the lead-up causes that certainty for Germany, but that same something likely determines where A-H and Italy end up.

Russia vs Germany with half-hearted French support for Germany is still not likely to be a Russian victory, but Germany doesn't know that - so why would Germany even create a situation where it risks that fight (and especially, risks having to fight while France rolls over Wallonia-Belgium-Brabant and then stares at Britain across the channel, while Germany's stuck with a Holland-with-Brits-in-it AND a wide open front with Russia)?
 

longsword14

Banned
Well, it's all a bit vague of course, given our premise is ill worked out. Who says France isn't gonna leave Germany hanging when they've finished creating a perfect storm (of the German armies rapidly surging east to prevent a possible Russian intervention while Britain is blockading its coast), or even stab them in the backs?
Presumably something in the lead-up causes that certainty for Germany, but that same something likely determines where A-H and Italy end up.

Russia vs Germany with half-hearted French support for Germany is still not likely to be a Russian victory, but Germany doesn't know that - so why would Germany even create a situation where it risks that fight (and especially, risks having to fight while France rolls over Wallonia-Belgium-Brabant and then stares at Britain across the channel, while Germany's stuck with a Holland-with-Brits-in-it AND a wide open front with Russia)?
A scenario where France and Germany are in such an accord that they are willing to divide the lowlands between themselves, is a scenario where congenial relations are formed because of interests other than being opposed to somebody else.
Why should Russia and Germany fight? Remember that before the entente Germany and Russia had decent relations, and Russia had not automatically jumped on with France. Why should Russia fight the German Empire and not have a stronger deck for bargaining against Britain?
This Franco German alliance could be aimed at Russia, but it is not likely. Aggravating the alliance for Britain's sake however will definitely create hostility.

It is a dream alliance, which if the diplomats in Paris and Berlin agree to would solve all their problems. Why should Britain supersede in a scenario where France can guarantee its own front and Germany can reduce a headache?
If you could somehow make an alliance between France and Germany in the late 19th century then it is not likely to be broken.
Britain cannot threaten to act, because they really cannot do anything about Europe in the long term.
France and Germany not having to spend money and men on their armies would have great social effects. Britain would most likely have to make concessions to Russia somewhere else, and have to worry about both France and Germany being capable of outmatching its fleet in the home waters (which is the only one that matters when it comes to a real war).
As I wrote before, it is a radically different world so other things must also be specified.
 
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If I might make a suggestion, perhaps the removal of the House of Orange from power might be a solution. Have the current ruler of the Netherlands in your TL doe to he replaced by someone arrogant and uncaring. Perhaps then a few dams break, causing flood and a ruining of harvests, and that ruler is less than speedy about repairing the damage. If this is occurring in the mid-1800s, it is plausible that in a few decades of such rule, people would start romanticizing the Dutch Republic, and then there's a neat little revolution that deposes Orange, as well as spilling into Belgium. The House flees to Prussia/Germany.

The Germans can now uses the chaos of the revolution (espdcially if the new Dutch government breaks down and collapses) to invade and restore order, welcoming them into the German Empire, with an Orange as their lord but with diminished power. The French, who have marched into Belgium both to restore order and as a check to let the Germans know not to try anything funny, are opposed to this land grab, but are appeased when the Germans agree to a proper treaty of partition, in which they agree to cede the French Wallonia, as well as the majority of Dutch colonial holdings.
 
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