Plausibility Check: A Franco-German Partition of the Low Countries in the Late 1800s?

CaliGuy

Banned
Had the Franco-Prussian War ended in a draw--albeit with German unification still being accomplished--could France and Germany actually ally in this TL and eventually partition the Low Countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg) between the two of them?

For the record, the logic behind this is this: The Dutch and Flemish are Germanic-speaking peoples while the Walloons are a French-speaking people; thus, the former deserve to be put inside of Germany while the latter deserve to be put inside of France.

Also, I assume that such a partition will give France control of Luxembourg, Wallonia, and Brussels while giving Germany everything else.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
After all, if Rome still falls in 1870, then Austria-Hungary--not France--will be Italy's main enemy. Also, would Russia really want to simultaneously fight against both Germany and France?
 
highly unlikely, especially since the right tight blood ties between the house of orange and prussia at that time.

In order for frane to be able to pull that off there should have been no napoleonic wars.
after these, britain will try to keep france in check.
also the only really northern border france had been interested in was the rhine.
there is no satisfying france in this time, after the first expansion there would only be appetite for more expansion.

even though not very likely, but still more likely than france pulling this off, is a german unification that follows a different path and might include the netherlands.
 
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Which allies will Britain actually get in response to such a Franco-German move, though?
The king of Prussia? The Czar?

The Dutch and Prussian royal houses were tight for a long time, and disrupting the freedom of navigation on the Rhine sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Dutch and Russian royal houses were if anything even closer; William III had a Russian mother after all (for a certain value thereof, given HER mother was German again).

Even if not, Russia, Italy and Austria-Hungary might all be quite worried by such a blatant landgrab - and in the days before mass-mobilized armies with major artillery arms, the Dutch & Belgian defence systems might not be completely outclassed by Germany and France just yet. They'll be en route to defeat, sure, but a Dutch-Belgian army falling back on Antwerp and Holland, backed by hastily assembled British support, will probably be able to hold out until the Czar calls a conference to create peace.

And that conference will be likely to give Germany and France anything BUT the Low Countries (well, except maybe Luxemburg, Limburg).
 
The king of Prussia? The Czar?

The Dutch and Prussian royal houses were tight for a long time, and disrupting the freedom of navigation on the Rhine sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Dutch and Russian royal houses were if anything even closer; William III had a Russian mother after all (for a certain value thereof, given HER mother was German again).

Even if not, Russia, Italy and Austria-Hungary might all be quite worried by such a blatant landgrab - and in the days before mass-mobilized armies with major artillery arms, the Dutch & Belgian defence systems might not be completely outclassed by Germany and France just yet. They'll be en route to defeat, sure, but a Dutch-Belgian army falling back on Antwerp and Holland, backed by hastily assembled
Hastily assembled what?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The king of Prussia? The Czar?

Maybe the Tsar but the King of Prussia (who is also the German Emperor in this TL) is doing the partitioning along with France in my TL/scenario here.

The Dutch and Prussian royal houses were tight for a long time, and disrupting the freedom of navigation on the Rhine sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Germany would control most of the Rhine in this TL and France would be a German ally, though.

The Dutch and Russian royal houses were if anything even closer; William III had a Russian mother after all (for a certain value thereof, given HER mother was German again).

Does Russia actually want to fight both Germany and France, though?

Even if not, Russia, Italy and Austria-Hungary might all be quite worried by such a blatant landgrab - and in the days before mass-mobilized armies with major artillery arms, the Dutch & Belgian defence systems might not be completely outclassed by Germany and France just yet. They'll be en route to defeat, sure, but a Dutch-Belgian army falling back on Antwerp and Holland, backed by hastily assembled British support, will probably be able to hold out until the Czar calls a conference to create peace.

And that conference will be likely to give Germany and France anything BUT the Low Countries (well, except maybe Luxemburg, Limburg).
Wouldn't Italy want to engage in its own landgrab in Austria-Hungary, though?

Also, what about if both Germany and France reject such a peace conference and continue fighting?
 
Maybe the Tsar but the King of Prussia (who is also the German Emperor in this TL) is doing the partitioning along with France in my TL/scenario here.

Germany would control most of the Rhine in this TL and France would be a German ally, though.


Does Russia actually want to fight both Germany and France, though?


Wouldn't Italy want to engage in its own landgrab in Austria-Hungary, though?

why would the prussian king divide the netherlands, it would undermine his position. showing that you are willing to throw relatives under the proverbial bus will make the rest of germany hyper paranoid about prussia.

getting germany and france allied is nigh to impossible in this period, too many big egos

you are assuming that italy unifies as otl, which is not a given, the pod has to be early enough, the same pod likely butterflies for example garibaldi
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
why would the prussian king divide the netherlands, it would undermine his position. showing that you are willing to throw relatives under the proverbial bus will make the rest of germany hyper paranoid about prussia.

Because he has already unified Germany in this TL.

getting germany and france allied is nigh to impossible in this period, too many big egos

They can partition the Low Countries together, though.

you are assuming that italy unifies as otl, which is not a given, the pod has to be early enough, the same pod likely butterflies for example garibaldi

I was talking about a PoD of 1870-1871 here, though.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
with a pod that late, a german french alliance is even more unlikely
France keeps Alsace-Lorraine in this TL due to the tie in the Franco-Prussian War, though; in turn, this makes Franco-German relations after 1871 better in this TL than in our TL. :)
 
France keeps Alsace-Lorraine in this TL due to the tie in the Franco-Prussian War, though; in turn, this makes Franco-German relations after 1871 better in this TL than in our TL. :)
Why is there a tie in the Franco-Prussian war?

Also, what about if both Germany and France reject such a peace conference and continue fighting?
Russia masses armies next to East Prussia, Britain starts sniping French colonies, Italy gets scared that Britain might blockade them, and Austria-Hungary starts wondering if maybe they can take back influence in Germany (especially if this is close to 1871).

Either Germany shifts its armies east, meaning the Belgian-Dutch-British armies have an even better shot at holding out, or it doesn't and the Russians march into Berlin, supported by Austrian armies 'liberating' Bavaria. Italy probably takes a while longer to act, but if the British support them Corsica and Savoy-Nice are possible acquisitions.
 

longsword14

Banned
Because Germany is clearly going mad with power (as is France), and rejecting ouvertures to sign a reasonable peace, ergo it needs slapping down.
x'D
Russia gains nothing by going to war against a cooperating France and Germany. So why should they try?
What is sensible for Britian is not for Russia. This is not Napoleonic Wars where everybody has the same opponent.
 
x'D
Russia gains nothing by going to war against a cooperating France and Germany. So why should they try?
What is sensible for Britian is not for Russia. This is not Napoleonic Wars where everybody has the same opponent.
The Czar gains his nephew staying in power.

And a conference on the issue just MIGHT decide Russia deserves compensation around the Straits if it lets Germany and France eat part of the Low Countries, if it doesn't freeze the old borders. Hence, Russia is interested in enforcing a fair settlement.

Sure, there is the alternative that whatever made Germany and France mad with power did likewise to Russia, so instead they conquer Constantinople while everyone else is distracted.
 

longsword14

Banned
The Czar gains his nephew staying in power.

And a conference on the issue just MIGHT decide Russia deserves compensation around the Straits if it lets Germany and France eat part of the Low Countries, if it doesn't freeze the old borders. Hence, Russia is interested in enforcing a fair settlement.

Sure, there is the alternative that whatever made Germany and France mad with power did likewise to Russia, so instead they conquer Constantinople while everyone else is distracted.
If the prospect is going against France and Germany combined, then the prize is not worth it. So many relations existed between different rulers of so many different crowns that, if what you assume is true, would mean that no wars should have been possible.
It is far easier to act as a host for his nephew than fight a war in which France and Germany fight together (a combination which Russia + Britain cannot beat).
 
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