Plausibility check: a deadlier Black Death

[Nerdlinger]

I think it [a Chinese industrial revolution] would happen, but I don't know when, nothing before the European introduction of these tecnics seem to have indicated that they was close to develop them themself. But I think it unavoidable that they would have develop at some moment, but it could be centuries out in the future.

If it's that far into the future, whoever inherited Europe might have beaten them to it. But it's definitely something for me to consider.

There are genetic markers, but the problem genetic people around the Mediterranean Sea are closer related to each others than to other groups. So a disease which hit a South Italian are more likely to hit a Turk than a Swede.

I see. So if the plague were to hit the southern Europeans harder, it would likely hit the Turks and Arabs (and Iranians?) just as hard. But if it hit the northern Europeans harder, who takes over their land? I would suppose that southern Europeans, being closest, would simply move north, but the Turks could also sweep in from the west and try to take the land. The Arabs might shove up through Spain, but since the Spanish are southern Europeans, they wouldn't be any weaker than they were in OTL. I'll have to do some research into who held the Ottomans out of Europe (and how) in OTL.

EDIT: Actually, the Turks wouldn't want the land due to the aforementioned Muslim restrictions. Damn.

Well A) disease doesn't interact with genes, it interacts with the expressed products of those genes, the genetic polymorphisms used to identify populations often have little to no phenotypic effect. B) you see changes in allele frequencies between populations , very rarely do you see population specific genes (even stuff like skin colour is produced by an assortment of genes and might have a different basis in each european individual) and C) humans actually have very little genetic variation, it would be far easier to make a lineage specific disease for chimps.

It would be nearly impossible to have a disease that in the course of its action would only latch onto an certain genotype because when you get down to cell surfaces everyones pretty much the same, and there would be tremendious selective pressure for the disease not to be so picky.

Yes, I know the bacteria wouldn't directly interact with the genes themselves. (My microbiology knowledge isn't that rusty... ) I was thinking of things like high blood pressure and heart disease, which although they aren't spread by pathogens, generally affect black people differently than whites. But if cell surfaces are all the same, then the plague can't target any one geography-specific phenotype (and its underlying genotype) more than another? I hadn't intended for the plague to specifically attack only one, but just to affect one more than the others.

I seem to recall that malaria doesn't affect people with sickle-cell anemia as adversely as those without it. This difference is only on the scale of alleles of one gene, although it's not one of the genes which are involved in "racial" phenotypes. Still, couldn't this theoretically mean that the plague (or at least some disease) could do more damage to someone based on geographic genetic markers?

 

[Maur]

A very interesting thread it is.


I'm trouble quoting your comments, moreover, after i answered them, i noticed that the discussion moved on, so, i'll just write.


I'll leave the technical disease stuff (ok, i realized i will) as i don't have anything important to add.

@post disease Europe.

Remember that it's suddenly worth a much less. It's not only land that matters, arguably, people are as important. Empty Europe isn't that attractive as conquest target - even if conquered, and don't forget logistical difficulties that now are actually worse, at least inland, they stay as low populated fringe for long, long time. Actually, such an even might see Ottoman border not so much different in the northwest (say, southern Poland, Bohemia and southern Germany), as they turn their attention to now more interesting east.

Of course, that varies wildly depending who and why gets decimated.

And i have no doubt in religion ability to adapt. We could see northern European muslim sect - or even not that, just local custom - that doesn't ban pork and stuff.

@Industrial revolution. I think that neither Middle East, nor China (or India, for that matter), showed signs of scientific revolution. Nor industrial. Certainly they didn't lead (or even participate in it) in OTL. So, why would they do that just because there is no Europe? Arguably, given enough time, it COULD happen, but how long is really hard to tell. It's really hard to tell if it would happen ever.

@NW development.
That's indeed a huge problem. IMO, it's simply not possible (ok, theoretically it is, but...) for NW to catch up. But, you make a point with low-intensity contact. In that way, NW could start to modernize without being basically assimilated to OW. Perhaps sustained contact with weak (like, Europe depopulated by that disease? Make it hit 10 years after Columbus? Or, with Scandinavians establishing permanent presence in the NA, but staying not powerful and gradually transferring the culture through trade and such with more southern areas of NA, like Mexico?

Basically, a low-intensity prolonged contact could work.
(i see some posters came to that conclusion, too)

@Disease exchange
Even with it's own diseases and domesticated animals, NW would still be hit as hard as it had no contact with OW diseases. But you're right that OW would get hit harder than OTL, and actually, you could make it a really nasty disease so OW in century after discovery is repeatedly hit by plague on the level of Black Death, experiencing another 30% drop in population (while in OTL it was like 30% growth during relatelively prosperous XVIc). Although i doubt that alone would save NW culturally and politically (meaning Mexico still gets conquered because of its precious metals)


@More about OW development and exploration
I do not believe that in the wake of disappearing Europe Chinese, Turks/Arabs would suddenly develop faster. On the contrary, actually, but assuming it stays as OTL... there is no incentive for them to a thing that is costly for the seafaring technology they posses. After technology improves, the cost of trans-atlantic (or pacific) travel falls... but i think that would take few centuries at least.
Which still doesn't save NW, as they need few thousands years to catch up (and most likely will actually fall behind more and more due to lower land area=population, worse geography, etc)
Notice that this is totally different from industrial revolution, and actually does not require science as we understand it.


Few ideas i got reading all this:

If you want to upgrade NW in respect to OW, make a small mass extinction event - by impact, so you have few years winter. It should hit agricultural - and as such, the most advanced societes, due to the population density - comparatively harder. That way, you destroy most of the development Eurasia did up to that point, although you also eliminate what hapenned to NW. Well, at least NW doesn't get late start this time.


Another disease idea: the general problem is that the higher the mortality rate, the faster it dies out as it kills the carrier before it can spread the patogen. The idea is to make the incubation period very long, over a year, while retaining the high (or even 100%) mortality. Sort of AIDS. That way you can actually kill practically whole OW population off, and throw the development back centuries if not thousands years. OF course, forget about OTL at all in that case

If you then make the disease spread by animal-human only, and find an animal that's common enough, have enough contact with humans - preferably domesticated - and make it confined to the area you want to depopulate (hmm, can't think of any, sadly), you could do that (ie: depopulate parts of Europe).

Your goal:
So, to sum it up. I take it that your goal is preservation of political/cultural sovereignity of NW? Better describe it yourself.

 

[Valdemar II]

Maurs point are interesting, but one point are there really any different between a world where the industrial revolution happens to North European blond alcohol drinking and pork eating Muslims variation, or where it happen to North European blond alcohol drinking and pork eating Christian variations. I doubt the Native Americans or the Chinese would see any difference.

 

[Nerdlinger]

A very interesting thread it is.


I'm trouble quoting your comments, moreover, after i answered them, i noticed that the discussion moved on, so, i'll just write.


I'll leave the technical disease stuff (ok, i realized i will) as i don't have anything important to add.

@post disease Europe.

Remember that it's suddenly worth a much less. It's not only land that matters, arguably, people are as important. Empty Europe isn't that attractive as conquest target - even if conquered, and don't forget logistical difficulties that now are actually worse, at least inland, they stay as low populated fringe for long, long time. Actually, such an even might see Ottoman border not so much different in the northwest (say, southern Poland, Bohemia and southern Germany), as they turn their attention to now more interesting east.

Of course, that varies wildly depending who and why gets decimated.

And i have no doubt in religion ability to adapt. We could see northern European muslim sect - or even not that, just local custom - that doesn't ban pork and stuff.

I had just assumed that the neighbors of a nearly empty Europe would be competing for control over the land for its natural resources and for whatever loot the Europeans left behind. Why would the conquerors need the people of Europe, though? For labor? By worse logistical difficulties inland, are you referring to the fact that sea travel is more convenient than land travel? If no foreigners come to claim the land, even a severely depopulated Europe would eventually be repopulated by the surviving Europeans, though you're right that it will take a long time for them to recover. And when you say the east is more interesting to the Ottomans, you mean it's because there are more people there? I see your point about religion adapting to the environment, but it's possible that the impracticality of eschewing pork and beer in their diet might just increase secularism in Muslims moving north.

@Industrial revolution. I think that neither Middle East, nor China (or India, for that matter), showed signs of scientific revolution. Nor industrial. Certainly they didn't lead (or even participate in it) in OTL. So, why would they do that just because there is no Europe? Arguably, given enough time, it COULD happen, but how long is really hard to tell. It's really hard to tell if it would happen ever.

Well, I guess I was thinking of the academic achievements of the Middle East, like the creation of Arabic numerals and algebra, and the technological achievements of China, such as gunpowder and fireworks. So I assumed (once again) that they would eventually fill the gap in world society left by the Europeans. I gave them a century of lead time, but maybe even that's not long enough. I especially though that the Muslims who might inherit Europe would have a leg up on the rest of the world by acquiring knowledge from European books left behind and the same set of resources that the Europeans had to work with. Though it didn't occur to me beforehand, Valdemar pointed out that northern China has a similar set of coal and iron ore as Europe, so it's possible that the Chinese might eventually undergo an independent industrial revolution. The Middle East and China didn't necessarily show signs of industrial revolution in OTL, but without contact with Europeans who could supply them with more advanced technology, I was figuring they would eventually come to the conclusion themselves that industry was beneficial to their society.

@NW development.
That's indeed a huge problem. IMO, it's simply not possible (ok, theoretically it is, but...) for NW to catch up. But, you make a point with low-intensity contact. In that way, NW could start to modernize without being basically assimilated to OW. Perhaps sustained contact with weak (like, Europe depopulated by that disease? Make it hit 10 years after Columbus? Or, with Scandinavians establishing permanent presence in the NA, but staying not powerful and gradually transferring the culture through trade and such with more southern areas of NA, like Mexico?

Basically, a low-intensity prolonged contact could work.
(i see some posters came to that conclusion, too)

I really liked Valdemar's idea of having a group of northern Europeans reach northern North America and bring Old World technology and diseases to the New World. Since the northern Europeans might not want to colonize the hotter areas further south, the native Americans would have time to recover from the diseases and to adapt the Old World technology before the next wave of Old World settlers came. I added the twist that the northern Europeans who colonized the New World would be fleeing the oncoming deadlier plague which effectively wiped out European society and delayed further exploration overseas by the Old World.

@Disease exchange
Even with it's own diseases and domesticated animals, NW would still be hit as hard as it had no contact with OW diseases. But you're right that OW would get hit harder than OTL, and actually, you could make it a really nasty disease so OW in century after discovery is repeatedly hit by plague on the level of Black Death, experiencing another 30% drop in population (while in OTL it was like 30% growth during relatelively prosperous XVIc). Although i doubt that alone would save NW culturally and politically (meaning Mexico still gets conquered because of its precious metals)

The trouble with plagues on the scale of the Black Death is limiting their geographic scope. A NW plague with the strength of the Black Death would hit all of Eurasia as hard as Europe, leveling the playing field amongst Europe, the Middle East, and the Far East. I'm already finding it increasingly difficulty to devise a way in which the deadlier Black Plague could damage Europe significantly more than the rest of the Old World, so adding a plague from the NW into the mix would complicate things further. I had hoped that Mexico wouldn't be doomed from the start, but you're right that their possession of precious metals increases the chance that they get conquered anyway as in OTL. Come to think of it, the same OTL fate might befall the sub-Saharan African states (with their gold and diamonds) which I had planned to keep independent from more technologically advanced societies.

@More about OW development and exploration
I do not believe that in the wake of disappearing Europe Chinese, Turks/Arabs would suddenly develop faster. On the contrary, actually, but assuming it stays as OTL... there is no incentive for them to a thing that is costly for the seafaring technology they posses. After technology improves, the cost of trans-atlantic (or pacific) travel falls... but i think that would take few centuries at least.
Which still doesn't save NW, as they need few thousands years to catch up (and most likely will actually fall behind more and more due to lower land area=population, worse geography, etc)
Notice that this is totally different from industrial revolution, and actually does not require science as we understand it.

Well, I guess you're right that the mere absence of Europeans might not accelerate the progress of non-European societies. That's why I gave them a delay of a century to catch up. But if the people of the Middle East and China had no intention to progress like Europe in OTL, then I see your point about there being little reason for them to do so just because the Europeans are virtually gone. Butterflies from the loss of Europe could potentially instigate a European-style societal and technological advancement in the Middle East or China, but even butterflies have their limits, I suppose. I do like the idea of having science and technology develop differently than in OTL, like having electronics technology develop faster than the technology of war.

Few ideas i got reading all this:

If you want to upgrade NW in respect to OW, make a small mass extinction event - by impact, so you have few years winter. It should hit agricultural - and as such, the most advanced societes, due to the population density - comparatively harder. That way, you destroy most of the development Eurasia did up to that point, although you also eliminate what hapenned to NW. Well, at least NW doesn't get late start this time.

I had hoped not to resort to something like an extraterrestrial impact event, as I really liked the idea of tweaking the Black Death to meet my goals for the TL. I think a "small mass extinction" is something of an oxymoron p) but as you say it would do heavy damage to agricultural society, what with the famine and such. The survivors would, at least temporarily, revert to the hunter-gatherer style common in the Americas at the time. But the New World societies also taking a hit from this, as they depend upon animals which eat the now-dying, light-starved plants, and even if the damage is not as relatively severe as in the Old World, the New World can't afford to take much damage if they are to having a hope of catching up with the OW.

Another disease idea: the general problem is that the higher the mortality rate, the faster it dies out as it kills the carrier before it can spread the patogen. The idea is to make the incubation period very long, over a year, while retaining the high (or even 100%) mortality. Sort of AIDS. That way you can actually kill practically whole OW population off, and throw the development back centuries if not thousands years. OF course, forget about OTL at all in that case

Yes, I've run headlong into the conclusion about the higher mortality rate starving the disease itself. It's a good idea to increase the incubation period, but the big problem I'm facing is how to change the disease so that Europeans are hit more heavily. And while wiping out the OW would give the NW a distinct edge, that also wipes out the Chinese and Middle Easterners civilizations which I had anticipated would emerge as the dominant societies in the world.

If you then make the disease spread by animal-human only, and find an animal that's common enough, have enough contact with humans - preferably domesticated - and make it confined to the area you want to depopulate (hmm, can't think of any, sadly), you could do that (ie: depopulate parts of Europe).

That's a good thought, but it might involve changing the plague so much that one mutation wouldn't do it. This is similar to the problem I'm facing with my backup plan of having the plague do more damage to Europe based on the geographic genetic markers which identify the "races" living there.

Your goal:
So, to sum it up. I take it that your goal is preservation of political/cultural sovereignity of NW? Better describe it yourself.

OK, the primary goals I have are:
(1) Europe is hit harder by the Black Death than elsewhere in the Old World, leading to the collapse of European society and the prevention of the overseas exploration and colonization by the Europeans which would begin in OTL about 150 years later.
(2) China and the Muslim societies of the Middle East (Turks, Arabs, and eventually Iranians) come to dominate the Old World, following a similar, albeit delayed, path of societal and technological progress as the Europeans of OTL while leaving Europe itself in the dust.
(3) New World civilizations, particularly the Mexicans and Inkas, are given enough time by the demise of Europe to survive the delayed colonization attempts by the civilizations which inherit the Old World, preserving the independence of the NW states until the present (21st century).
(4) Having the world undergo a long Global War in the early to mid 21st century which advances technology from WWI-type levels to post-WWII-type levels.

Maurs point are interesting, but one point are there really any different between a world where the industrial revolution happens to North European blond alcohol drinking and pork eating Muslims variation, or where it happen to North European blond alcohol drinking and pork eating Christian variations. I doubt the Native Americans or the Chinese would see any difference.

Good point. I guess you could say the main differences are the delay of European-style overseas imperialism and the domination of the world by societies other than that of Christian Europeans.

Thanks, everybody for all your input on this. I've learned a lot so far, and I'm definitely re-thinking the premise for my TL. It needs a big overhaul, so I'm grateful for all the information and well educated opinions you all have provided. In the event that I do manage to develop a realistic TL, I would like to claim the title "The Heirs to History: A Deadlier Black Death." For the time being, the TL will remain in limbo, but additional input on this thread is more than welcome.

 

[Nerdlinger]

No, I can't seem to let this die just yet. I was researching mtDNA haplogroups and found that Haplogroup H is most commonly found in Europeans, particularly the Subhaplogroups H1 and (albeit to a lesser extent) H3. Check out this map here:

http://www.genebase.com/doc/mtdnaHaplogroup_H_Subclade_Distribution_Map.pdf

The abstract of the article here, much of which is over my head, suggests that the H3 haplogroup is protective against AIDS. Now, I've heard that Europeans may be more resistant to AIDS (more than Africans, for example) because the survivors of the Black Death in Europe were those with resistance to the plague. I'm still not sure how resistance to plague bacteria confers resistance to the HIV virus, but I'm guessing it has something to do with the evolution of general population immunity in the MHC complex mentioned by Nugax in an earlier post. I'm probably wrong, so any help on this would be nice.

So I've got some little bits of evidence and loose connections I'm trying to piece together here. My hope, which may or may not be realistic, is that there could possibly be a way for a mutated black plague (or some pathogen, anyway) to do more damage to people bearing Haplogroup H (or a subgroup thereof), which are mostly clustered in Europe. The disease wouldn't necessarily attack only those with Haplogroup H, but just do relatively more damage to them.

Is there a connection here -- a way to do this -- or am I just pissing in the dark again?

 

[Jaded_Railman]

You're right about the Mongols. In OTL, the Black Death devastated the Golden Horde, and they never recovered from it.

The Turks caught it too, but no worse than anywhere else (both in OTL and the ATL).

Well, they caught it worse than anyone else because the Ottomans were, at the time, squatting on one of the more densely populated parts of Europe at the time. Anatolia lost, what, half its population?

 

[Nerdlinger]

Well, they caught it worse than anyone else because the Ottomans were, at the time, squatting on one of the more densely populated parts of Europe at the time. Anatolia lost, what, half its population?

I stand corrected.

 

[Dave Howery]

Multible similar mutations happening at once, while possible,

actually, I wasn't talking about having all those diseases mutate all at once, or at all... just the 'normal' Black Death, plus outbreaks of smallpox, pneumonia, what have you, the normal versions... you still likely wouldn't get 95% mortality, but there would certainly be a large death toll...

 

[Maur]

No, I can't seem to let this die just yet.

Hey, i still plan to respond to rest of your OP, so it certainly isn't dead yet


EDIT/ Ha! I just realize how can you wipe out these pesky temperate zone civilizations with their easy acces to coal and stuff. Another Ice Age

 

[Nerdlinger]

actually, I wasn't talking about having all those diseases mutate all at once, or at all... just the 'normal' Black Death, plus outbreaks of smallpox, pneumonia, what have you, the normal versions... you still likely wouldn't get 95% mortality, but there would certainly be a large death toll...

True, but the idea is still problematic in that it involves multiple PODs. Unless you're talking only one additional disease, but even then, how could it be limited to Europe?

~~~~~

A difficulty with my last-ditch effort to salvage this TL involving mtDNA haplogroups has occurred to me. Since mitochondria are within the cells, I'm not certain they would affect the outer surface of the cell, which is what the bacteria would interact with. So mtDNA is irrelevant. Are there any other unique genetic features of Europeans which the plague could focus upon? Otherwise, I think my "baby" TL is dead, which would make me sad.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Help!

Another thought: suppose a virus which occurred in concert with the Black Death and which targeted Europeans was the true killer of European civilization? I don't know exactly what the virus might do; perhaps exacerbate the plague symptoms in Europeans or just some other deadly effect. I don't know where the virus could come from, except maybe some mutated form of a similar human virus or a domestic animal virus. I'm also unsure how this virus could target Europeans. I don't think the virus could go after people with mtDNA haplogroup H, because viruses don't attack mitochondria. Maybe it could go after people based on the amount or type of melanin in their skin, or some other European geno-/phenotypic feature.

So if there's anyone out there who can help me out on this, please provide some input. I'd be most appreciative.

 

[Nikephoros]

Another thought: suppose a virus which occurred in concert with the Black Death and which targeted Europeans was the true killer of European civilization? I don't know exactly what the virus might do; perhaps exacerbate the plague symptoms in Europeans or just some other deadly effect. I don't know where the virus could come from, except maybe some mutated form of a similar human virus or a domestic animal virus. I'm also unsure how this virus could target Europeans. I don't think the virus could go after people with mtDNA haplogroup H, because viruses don't attack mitochondria. Maybe it could go after people based on the amount or type of melanin in their skin, or some other European geno-/phenotypic feature.

So if there's anyone out there who can help me out on this, please provide some input. I'd be most appreciative.

I can't really see a disease that targets by skin pigmentation. Many people of African descent have the sickle cell trait. Being albino doesn't affect that gene. Viruses target everyone equally. The only difference is that some people have different levels of immunity. And any disease like what you're thinking of would leave southern europeans as unharmed as middle easterners.