Could there have been a communist revolution,even not in Russia,without the crisis caused by the war and without the other powers too busy fighting to suppress the revolution?
Plausibility check|A communist revolution could break out before WW1?
- Thread starter DavidePell
- Start date
Historically, socialist/communist revolutions emerge most successfully out of catastrophic state collapse or snowball out of regions with very weak state control. For the former, see the Russian Empire in 1917 or the Paris Commune of 1871 among others. For the latter, see places like Yan'an Soviet (or previous Soviets in China..), Vietnam, the Sierra Maestra in Cuba technically, or even Yugoslavia with its more complicated series of events. It stands to reason then that you also need some sort of state collapse and crisis of legitimacy in a place where a self-proclaimed communist organization is of sufficient strength to carry out some form of revolution. Without the general crisis brought on by the war, this is difficult. You really need some sort of war in general to provoke the crisis needed to turn what are essentially European literary clubs and secret societies into revolutionary governments. Mass parties like the SDP in Germany exist, but war will likely just bring about the same split we saw IOTL over war credits. I don't think they would participate in a general revolution without war either.
Depends what you mean by revolution, I think. Consider the Spanish Civil War: a left-wing government being elected prompted a right-wing coup; which in turn led to the government faction becoming increasingly dependent on and dominated by the radical leftist groups which could provide meaningful fighting forces to their support. Those were largely communist (or the Basque Anarchists) leading to increasing communist dominance of the republican side of the civil war.
Was there a communist revolution ongoing there? (Before Franco's victory made the whole thing moot, I mean). There was definitely increasing communist control driven by their effective use of violence- but that violence wasn't directly aimed at the elected government (mostly).
I could imagine much the same scenario occurring in Spain even without the First World War, though it would probably end up similar to OTL- the coup forces collecting outside support by presenting themselves as the only bulwark against communism, then using that support to win the civil war and secure power.
Was there a communist revolution ongoing there? (Before Franco's victory made the whole thing moot, I mean). There was definitely increasing communist control driven by their effective use of violence- but that violence wasn't directly aimed at the elected government (mostly).
I could imagine much the same scenario occurring in Spain even without the First World War, though it would probably end up similar to OTL- the coup forces collecting outside support by presenting themselves as the only bulwark against communism, then using that support to win the civil war and secure power.
The interesting thing here though is that Spain's left forces will probably act quite differently. There is no Lenin for Largo Caballero to directly draw inspiration from. There is no popular front strategy or Comintern for the Spanish communists to reference during the war. Hell, there is no Soviet support for the Republican government which was fairly decisive early in the war. Perhaps left forces launch a more extensive version of the 1934 revolution rather than defending, in their eyes, a bourgeois republic against nascent fascism. Hell, without World War I we don't get Italian fascism or the Bolshevik revolution which sends historical shock waves through the left and right in Spain. Without the crisis of the war, we might not even have the Primo de Rivera dictatorship as we know it. All this means means 1936 and the events leading up to it could play out entirely differently. Hard to say without plotting it out piece by piece.
Indeed, it certainly couldn't be an identical replay- the economic changes, with no boom for Spain during the war and then major changes to the Great Depression if it happens at all, will make sure of that. That said; I do think that left-wing politics gaining in electoral popularity, right-wing elements viewing any left successes as existential threats, and the resulting destabilization of society being valuable to political forces that are organized and have already rejected electoral change and embraced violence (at least in theory) are all elements of European politics whose roots significantly predate the Great War.