Plausibility Check: A botched 1953 Iran Coup scenario

So as a part of my timeline I've been planning for an alternate Iran Coup, but I am unsure of the plausibility. :eek:

"The CIA and SIS have been plotting the overthrow of democratically-elected Mohammed Mosaddeq. However, Mosaddeq’s rule seems less democratic than ever as he dissolves parliament and popular support for him seems to be eroding.
The Shah, previously under the comfort that the Truman Administration was indifferent oil nationalization, now faces pressure from CIA cadres. Iran had been receiving ’16 percent’ of Anglo-Iranian Oil Company profits, but probably less since the company refused an audit. While Mosaddeq’s plan to nationalize oil was extremely popular in Iran, the US and British were strongly opposed.
The Shah has told the CIA cadres that he was willing to compromise 50/50, but the offer was rejected, the Shah has now decided to stand with Mosaddeq."

-Would the Shah ever side with Mosaddeq?
-If maybe, what would it take to make the Shah side with Mosaddeq?
-How would Great Britain react? Would they ever launch an invasion?
-If yes, would the invasion have limited objectives or would they go for regime change?
-Is the situation remotely plausible?

Any information on this idea is appreciated
 
I think the British wouldn't go for regime change. If they advance too far north to Teheran they'll end up in Russia's backyard and piss off Moscow. Apart from that I'm not sure, but I'm interested in learning what others think.
 
I think the British wouldn't go for regime change. If they advance too far north to Teheran they'll end up in Russia's backyard and piss off Moscow. Apart from that I'm not sure, but I'm interested in learning what others think.

Yeah, making Russia mad would be problem, an interesting one that. Maybe we could see some sort of 'Finlandized' Iran, maybe.

But really nobody else has an opinion?
 
-Would the Shah ever side with Mosaddeq?

Probably not since Mosaddeq's goal was to remove the Shah and seize all power for himself.

There is also the issue that Mosaddeq is destroying the Iranian economy at this point by his refusal to do any kind of compromise on the oil issue, and as the economy continues to decline the Tudeh is gaining support. The Shah knew this was happening and wanted to prevent it.

-If maybe, what would it take to make the Shah side with Mosaddeq?

Mosaddeq compromises on the oil issue so the economy can recover, and he works with the Shah to establish a proper constitutional monarchy.

-How would Great Britain react? Would they ever launch an invasion?
-If yes, would the invasion have limited objectives or would they go for regime change?

No. Iran was out of the British sphere at this point, the Americans had taken over. If there is a compromise on the oil issue, the British have no problems. If there is no compromise and the Iranian economy implodes and there is an attempt by the Tudeh to seize power, then it's an entirely different crisis and the specifics of any intervention needs to be discussed within the framework of how Iran is like at that specific time.

-Is the situation remotely plausible?

Probably not. The coup only happened because the Iranian economy was destructing and the US feared the Tudeh would seize power. Mosaddegh was removed so that the oil issue could be resolved and the economy return to normal. Mosaddegh was way past being reasonable on this. There is a reason the US went from pro-Mosaddegh to anti-Mosaddegh over a several year period.

If Mosaddegh stays in power and continues his policy, the likely result is an Iranian civil war and/or Tudeh coup attempt.

If Mosaddegh repudiates his past policies and compromises on the oil issue so there is no threat of a Tudeh coup, the reasons for the US coup are gone.
 
I've actually been doing a fair amount of research into the subject both for a possible TL and for a paper for one of my classes.
-Would the Shah ever side with Mosaddeq?
Maybe, but probably not. It's very possible that he wouldn't go along with the plot, he was very hesitant IOTL as he had dismissed Mossadegh once before and that backfired in a big way as Mossadegh was still popular at that point and still had the support of the Ayatollah. His sister and Kermit had to drag him into the coup and the moment the first attempt failed he ran away. Maybe someone other than Kermit is placed in charge of the situation and they are unable to persuade him to sign the documents ordering the arrest of Mossadegh, but to get the Shah to side with Mossadegh is very unlikely.

-If maybe, what would it take to make the Shah side with Mosaddeq?
The CIA goes ahead with the coup even without the Shah's official signature and this figure that is replacing Kermit chooses to flee after the failure of the first coup attempt rather than staying as Kermit did. The Shah fearing for that Mossadegh might use this as an opportunity to get rid of him comes out stating his support for Mossadegh. I still feel that it's more likely that the Shah simply runs away in this scenario.

-How would Great Britain react? Would they ever launch an invasion?
They would be annoyed and worried. They might think about bringing back one the plans that had been proposed to Attlee about invading and capturing Abadan. Though I suspect that the US will keep them on a leash, though they might actually endorse it as it's only a matter of time until Mossadegh falls now. He still lacks the support of the Ayatollah and the clerics and while the Tudeh had supported him during the first coup attempt, his suppression of their protests calling for the proclamation of a Democratic Republic after the first attempts failure is sure to alienate them. With plenty of communists in the officer's corp I'm sure that they would try and launch a coup of their own if the unstable situation continued.

-If yes, would the invasion have limited objectives or would they go for regime change?
The British did have a plan for a limited invasion, but that was thrown out by Attlee. Churchill is PM in 53, so it could be possible that he would revive the plan. Regime change really does depend on how the wind blows in Tehran and whether or not the Ayatollah and his supporters can take power or the Tudeh can. If the communist Tudeh comes to power, the USSR will likely move in troops to help their new ally and things get really really complicated.
 
The Shah has told the CIA cadres that he was willing to compromise 50/50, but the offer was rejected, the Shah has now decided to stand with Mosaddeq."

The British had already offered Iran a 50/50 split for some time in order to neutralize the crisis. This was done right before the nationalization bill was passed, and offered repeatedly after nationalization occurred if Iran allowed the British to remain in control of drilling, refining, and export. By that time, Mosaddeq was no longer willing to compromise.

If the British had been willing to agree to such terms earlier in the process before nationalization had passed, that may have been enough. However, at that Mosaddeq felt he could not turn back the nationalization law. He had whipped up too much emotion to go back on his signature policy even if it meant the continued oil embargo on Iran would destroy the country.

So the 50/50 split is no reason for the Shah to support Mosaddeq at that point. It's a reason to oppose Mosaddeq since it was him who was preventing a deal.
 
Thanks for the feedback guys, I was trying to prevent Iran from getting screwed, but it seems these events were a long time coming.

I had no idea a 50/50 split was on the table, thanks, I think Mosaddeq should've taken it rather than allowing the economy to collapse.

Maybe in my timeline if I don't want Iran to get screwed latter I have Ali Amini take over, he'd be staunchly pro-American, but also very reformist. I was kinda hoping to use this as a POD for a Finlandized Iran, but now thinking about it that seems ASB.

Maybe, but probably not. It's very possible that he wouldn't go along with the plot, he was very hesitant IOTL as he had dismissed Mossadegh once before and that backfired in a big way as Mossadegh was still popular at that point and still had the support of the Ayatollah. His sister and Kermit had to drag him into the coup and the moment the first attempt failed he ran away. Maybe someone other than Kermit is placed in charge of the situation and they are unable to persuade him to sign the documents ordering the arrest of Mossadegh, but to get the Shah to side with Mossadegh is very unlikely.

Okay, what if the coup succeeds, but the Shah never okay'd it? What kind of position does this leave him in?

Moreover, what if the coup goes without the Shah's approval, but then is botched?
 
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