Plausaiblity check: No Polish partitions butterfly away German unification

This is a thought I've had for a few days now, so I want to know if it was plausible or not. if for some reason, Prussia and Austria did not partition the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth with Russia or if Russia was the only one chewing up the PLC for territory, would this prevent either Prussia or Austria from being the likely candidates to unite Germany or prevent German unification altogether?
 
This is a thought I've had for a few days now, so I want to know if it was plausible or not. if for some reason, Prussia and Austria did not partition the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth with Russia or if Russia was the only one chewing up the PLC for territory, would this prevent either Prussia or Austria from being the likely candidates to unite Germany or prevent German unification altogether?

One factor you need to consider is the diplomatic and geopolitical impact of Russia ignoring the concerns and interests of the Germanic powers and swallowing up the whole PLC for itself. A giant Russia with clear expansionists interests encroaching onto the core frontiers of Brandenburg and the Hungary-Moravia is going to set off major alarm bells in Berlin and Vienna, and is liable to bring the two together in order to hedge against the 400 pound grizzly scratching at their front door. Nothing could seem better in my eyes to facilitate a closer relationship between the the HRE/GC members than the threat of Czarism coming down on them
 
One factor you need to consider is the diplomatic and geopolitical impact of Russia ignoring the concerns and interests of the Germanic powers and swallowing up the whole PLC for itself. A giant Russia with clear expansionists interests encroaching onto the core frontiers of Brandenburg and the Hungary-Moravia is going to set off major alarm bells in Berlin and Vienna, and is liable to bring the two together in order to hedge against the 400 pound grizzly scratching at their front door. Nothing could seem better in my eyes to facilitate a closer relationship between the the HRE/GC members than the threat of Czarism coming down on them

Touching on this, I think Russia would have it in their own best interest to not take all of the PLC's territory for themselves, because that would also probably set off alarms throughout the rest of Europe that Russia may tip the balance of power in their favor.

However, and please correct me if I'm wrong, I believe the first partition of Poland was initiated by Prussia, who offered to split pieces off with Russia and Austria, and I believe Prussia would have done it this way because they especially couldn't be seen as trying to gain too much power and risk the rest of Europe coming down on them for being too expansionist.

Russia may try to annex bits and pieces of Poland for themselves anyway without consulting the German great powers, but likely do it in a way that doesn't directly threaten Prussia's or Austria's borders. The PLC was still a fairly useful buffer state separating all three from one another, but with further partitions, and the frontiers creeping closer and closer to one another anyway, eventually it made more sense to just take the rest of Poland anyway. I find it interesting that this final partition led to Poland being the main battlefield on the Eastern Front during WWI.
 
I think it all depends on whether Prussia manages to conquer and annex territory elsewhere. It still has a hell of an army, but it needs to be a bit bigger to be taken seriously as a Great Power. Without being a Great Power, it won't get the Rhineland awarded to it, and won't have the resources for industrialization that powered its unification.
 
Have Maria Theresa win the AustroPrussian war and reward the Saxons and Poles with parts of Silesia which she plans.
 
Touching on this, I think Russia would have it in their own best interest to not take all of the PLC's territory for themselves, because that would also probably set off alarms throughout the rest of Europe that Russia may tip the balance of power in their favor.

However, and please correct me if I'm wrong, I believe the first partition of Poland was initiated by Prussia, who offered to split pieces off with Russia and Austria, and I believe Prussia would have done it this way because they especially couldn't be seen as trying to gain too much power and risk the rest of Europe coming down on them for being too expansionist.

The process had been triggered by the Austrian annexation of Spisz in 1769 and Nowy Sącz and Nowy Targ in 1770 under pretext that at some point these territories belonged to Hungary. At that time Russia was fighting the Ottomans (war of 1768 - 74) and hardly could interfere even if Catherine II wanted. Formal agreement about the 1st Partition was achieved in 1772 (Russia still at war) with Fritz (or rather Prince Henry, who traveled to St-Petersburg) playing a critical role.

Strictly speaking, there was no direct Russian interest in that partition because the PLC was a de facto Russian vassal and attempts of an armed opposition (Confederacy of Bar) had been crushed. However, in 1771 the Austrians (after getting some territorial concessions) sided with the Ottomans (and, as soon as agreement about the 1st Partition had been achieved, Kaunitz informed the Porte that Austria no longer considered the treaty of 1771 binding). With both Britain and Prussia also taking anti-Russian position and a peace with the Ottomans still not being reached, Catherine had to agree to the 1st Partition (an additional factor was influence of Count Panin who was considered at that time Russian top expert on the foreign affairs and was a strong supporter of the close alliance with Prussia).

An interesting question is what would happen if Catherine refused the deal. Would Austrians (and Prussians) risk a war?
 
Have Maria Theresa win the AustroPrussian war and reward the Saxons and Poles with parts of Silesia which she plans.

I never read anything about offering parts of Silesia, since the whole point of Maria Theresa fighting all those Silesian wars was to regain Silesia for Austria, though I do know that she and Augustus of Saxony (and separately, King of the PLC) had agreed to partition Prussia between themselves. Seeing as Russia was a crucial member of that last alliance, I doubt they would allow Poland to annex any part of Silesian, since Russia still needed to keep them weak, more or less. I also doubt Maria Theresa would want to give up any part of Silesia either.

Still, all history is ultimately speculative in hindsight since none of us were there, this is all based on deduction and inferred reasoning. There's not even any record of Polish troops fighting in any of these wars, which is why I highly doubt the Poles would have even gotten a tiny hamlet as a reward. Ultimately, Poland was always in the way of Prussian, Russian, and Austrian ambitions and none of them likely had any interest in throwing the Poles any kind of bone.
 
Touching on this, I think Russia would have it in their own best interest to not take all of the PLC's territory for themselves, because that would also probably set off alarms throughout the rest of Europe that Russia may tip the balance of power in their favor.

However, and please correct me if I'm wrong, I believe the first partition of Poland was initiated by Prussia, who offered to split pieces off with Russia and Austria, and I believe Prussia would have done it this way because they especially couldn't be seen as trying to gain too much power and risk the rest of Europe coming down on them for being too expansionist.

Russia may try to annex bits and pieces of Poland for themselves anyway without consulting the German great powers, but likely do it in a way that doesn't directly threaten Prussia's or Austria's borders. The PLC was still a fairly useful buffer state separating all three from one another, but with further partitions, and the frontiers creeping closer and closer to one another anyway, eventually it made more sense to just take the rest of Poland anyway. I find it interesting that this final partition led to Poland being the main battlefield on the Eastern Front during WWI.

The circumstances for the Partitions would have to be drastically different, yes: though as far as I understand it Prussia's push towards partition came more out of how Austria (Who, let's remember, is at this moment trying to consolidate and get a tighter grip on the HRE) was going to react to Russia's continued rise and what appeared at the time to be Poland's inevitable dissolution if things weren't regulated by some kind of agreement... and her desire to skim a little off the top for mediating things. In this case, perhaps you have a stiffer Ottoman resistance against Russian expansion southward and so, as Poland's domestic stability starts to unravel, Russia deciding to push West following Peter the Great's route towards a window to the world (The Baltic) rather than south. A No Catherine timeline, with Peter III going towards his well-known personal ambitions towards pressing claims on his family lands of Holstein-Gottorp (Which would serve Russia by prying open the Danish Sounds) and seeing the Polish territories in the Baltic as a useful stepping stone and profitable addition would go a long way towards this, as well as Prussia being not quite so keen on cutting up Poland but rather trying to prop them up.
 
I never read anything about offering parts of Silesia, since the whole point of Maria Theresa fighting all those Silesian wars was to regain Silesia for Austria, though I do know that she and Augustus of Saxony (and separately, King of the PLC) had agreed to partition Prussia between themselves. Seeing as Russia was a crucial member of that last alliance, I doubt they would allow Poland to annex any part of Silesian, since Russia still needed to keep them weak, more or less. I also doubt Maria Theresa would want to give up any part of Silesia either.

Still, all history is ultimately speculative in hindsight since none of us were there, this is all based on deduction and inferred reasoning. There's not even any record of Polish troops fighting in any of these wars, which is why I highly doubt the Poles would have even gotten a tiny hamlet as a reward. Ultimately, Poland was always in the way of Prussian, Russian, and Austrian ambitions and none of them likely had any interest in throwing the Poles any kind of bone.


The annexation of Silesia by Prussia prevented the designs of Frederick Augustus regarding Silesia to connect Saxony and Poland in terms of territory and Maria Theresa was kind off okay to deal and negotiate with Frederick Augustus, but what I think is more plausible conclusion to that is a land-swap of Upper Silesia and Saxony like Netherlands and Bavaria swap plan - why? The Habsburgs made one of the Saxons a Duke of Cieszyn IOTL.
 
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