plausability WW1 neutral UK Japan with Central powers

Suppose Germany managed to improve relations with Britain pre 1914 and decided to defend against France and take chunks off Russia in the event of war.

I suspect that respect for Britain was a big factor in them joining the Entente in 1914.

1) Could this happen?

2) Does Russia survive as significant power?
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
Just to be clear, the question is if Britain stays out of the War, might Japan join with the Central Powers?

The answer to that is "yes." There were several prominent Japanese statesmen, mostly of the old-guard genro Choshu faction (led by Field Marshal Yamagata Aritomo) who actually felt the treaty with Britain had outlived its usefulness, and that Germany was the new rising power. Indeed, they had entertained ideas of a Russo-German-Japanese alliance for a time immediately prior to the death of the Meiji Emperor -- a negotiation was actually supposed to take place (according to Japan) but the death of the Emperor postponed it, and it was never rescheduled. Whether the Russians or Germans would have agreed to it is another matter entirely...

Respect for Britain only went so far, but it was part of why the Japanese joined. The then-Foreign Minister Kato was a very outspoken Anglophile, and one who wished to demonstrate the independence of the elected government from the elder statesmen and nobility who attempted to control things absent elections -- so joining Britain was quite rational for him, and done over Yamagata, and other's, objections.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Indeed, they had entertained ideas of a Russo-German-Japanese alliance for a time immediately prior to the death of the Meiji Emperor -- a negotiation was actually supposed to take place (according to Japan) but the death of the Emperor postponed it, and it was never rescheduled. Whether the Russians or Germans would have agreed to it is another matter entirely...

Neat observation - where did you read about such tripartite discussions

-- so joining Britain was ...done over Yamagata, and other's, objections.

So what was the practical alternative proposed by Yamagata and the like-minded? Just stay neutral? Maybe jump in late on the CP's side if they win in Europe.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Indeed, they had entertained ideas of a Russo-German-Japanese alliance for a time immediately prior to the death of the Meiji Emperor
That would have been problematic as long as Germany and Russia would have been members of rival alliances in Europe, though.
 

Deleted member 9338

Short answer no and no.

Longer answer, Japan can gain very little being German's partner but in opposition they can gain several plum locations in China and the Pacific.

As for the second in the OTL Russia did not end up as a significant power so I do not see them doing any worse than losing the Czar.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Longer answer, Japan can gain very little being German's partner but in opposition they can gain several plum locations in China and the Pacific.
It can get some Russian territories in the Far East--especially if Germany wins in the West and is thus able to impose a broad settlement on Russia.
 
Short answer no and no.

Longer answer, Japan can gain very little being German's partner but in opposition they can gain several plum locations in China and the Pacific.

As for the second in the OTL Russia did not end up as a significant power so I do not see them doing any worse than losing the Czar.

If Britain stays out of WWI Japan can get much more from attacking the Entente: the concessions in China, the rest of Sakhalin, some random islands, maybe even French Indochina. Of course countries aren't usually driven by this sort of opportunism, but that would be the only obstacle. Without the UK in the mix Japan has essentially free reign in the pacific.
 
Even a neutral Britain is going to be pro-Entente out of the gate. It'll be doing the most it can to support France and Russia while they're up and fighting, financial support, light logistics, a ban of military traffic in the English Channel). Though Britain's tune might change once the costs and casualties start to soar and the Entente start getting its teeth kicked in.

The big question is what Italy does. With a neutral Britain, Italy's position is far more secure and she might jump on France after a while. Britain would take a rather dim view of Japan joining the fray right away... but once the Entente starts going down in flames it might behoove Britain to have a stronger ally in the East to prevent German expansion (a Japanese Indochina is much preferable to a German one).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
and she might jump on France after a while.

Probably near the end of the war.

Britain would take a rather dim view of Japan joining the fray right away... but once the Entente starts going down in flames it might behoove Britain to have a stronger ally in the East to prevent German expansion (a Japanese Indochina is much preferable to a German one).

Agreed.
 
Keeping Britain neutral however is quite hard because a German controlled Mittleurope is very much not in their interests. That was what drove the Entente Cordiale in the first place.
 

Deleted member 9338

If Britain stays out of WWI Japan can get much more from attacking the Entente: the concessions in China, the rest of Sakhalin, some random islands, maybe even French Indochina. Of course countries aren't usually driven by this sort of opportunism, but that would be the only obstacle. Without the UK in the mix Japan has essentially free reign in the pacific.

True, but this looks to be harder pickings.
 
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