Plausability check: Philliphines as manufacturing powerhouse?

How possible is that? Say, US does not get along with mainland China in late 1970s all through 1980s, so US companies go to Philliphines en masse when out-sourcing started?
 
How possible is that? Say, US does not get along with mainland China in late 1970s all through 1980s, so US companies go to Philliphines en masse when out-sourcing started?
First wave, Japan for cheap manufacturing, followed closely by Taiwan. Then they started rising prices.
South Korea next that gets you to the 1980s for Goldstar and Hyundai selling stuff in the USA
That's OTL.

So how to get the PI in that group in the 1980s?
Theres not an equivalent to Hyundai that I know of, that started just after the War.
PI needs something like that, a construction company that starts just after the War
 
If the Philippines avoids Marcos, they might be able to raise infrastructure levels and overall HDI to position for export manufacturing.
 
The problem with Marcos was that the infrastructure he built wasn't too good (and cost inefficient, thanks to the whole corruption thing).
 
The problem with Marcos was that the infrastructure he built wasn't too good (and cost inefficient, thanks to the whole corruption thing).
Let's not forget about the incident where construction workers lost their lives while building the Manila Convention Center at the insistence of Imelda Marcos.
 
Nuclear War between the PRC and USSR in 1969, expanding to include a general war in Asia with conflict between the Koreas breaking out and Taiwan getting drawn into the China mess.
 

Driftless

Donor
Prevent the Bell Trade Act of 1946 and similar counter-productive legislation and effectively neuter CIA manipulation of the post-WW2 Philippine government. Those POD's would help the Philippines to get a better start after WW2.
 
In 1980 GDP per capita of the Philippines was $700, while countries like China and India were $200. South Korea was only twice as high as the Philippines while productivity was far higher.

The bigger problem is the country only had 30 million people in 1960, and 50 million by 1980. So even if they became a low cost manufacturing powerhouse, they would still be a niche player, unable to take on a significant portion of manufacturing jobs Japan and US was off shoring.
 
The bigger problem is the country only had 30 million people in 1960, and 50 million by 1980. So even if they became a low cost manufacturing powerhouse, they would still be a niche player, unable to take on a significant portion of manufacturing jobs Japan and US was off shoring.
In 1960 this made the Philippines larger (in population terms) than South Korea and a third the size of Japan. In 1980...still larger than South Korea, nearly half the population of Japan. I'm not seeing how their population would make them a niche player of necessity?
 
In 1960 this made the Philippines larger (in population terms) than South Korea and a third the size of Japan. In 1980...still larger than South Korea, nearly half the population of Japan. I'm not seeing how their population would make them a niche player of necessity?

US was not off shoring huge numbers of low cost manufacturing jobs in 1960, they were by the 80s, by then Philippines was too small for that.
 
US was not off shoring huge numbers of low cost manufacturing jobs in 1960, they were by the 80s, by then Philippines was too small for that.
But it wasn't? Again, it was still bigger than South Korea, a little shy of half the population of Japan, and had 70% of the population of Mexico at the time, all of which were countries that developed important manufacturing sectors based on offshoring. I just don't see how the Philippines is supposed to be "too small" in this context, when it clearly falls in the same range as other countries that were successful.
 
But it wasn't? Again, it was still bigger than South Korea, a little shy of half the population of Japan, and had 70% of the population of Mexico at the time, all of which were countries that developed important manufacturing sectors based on offshoring. I just don't see how the Philippines is supposed to be "too small" in this context, when it clearly falls in the same range as other countries that were successful.

I didn’t say it was too small to do manufacturing, rather it’s too small to absorb the massive off shoring of low cost manufacturing in the 80s to make a dent IOTL. If you’re talking about 1960. Philippines per capita GDP was $260, South Korea was $150. And you’re not getting a more skilled labor force for the higher wages.
 
I didn’t say it was too small to do manufacturing, rather it’s too small to absorb the massive off shoring of low cost manufacturing in the 80s to make a dent IOTL.
You're not getting it. You keep saying "it's not big enough, it's not big enough," even though as I keep pointing out it was bigger than plenty of countries that developed perfectly successful and significant manufacturing industries. The OP's desire isn't for the Philippines to single-handle absorb every single low-wage job in the United States, it's just for them to become a major industrial nation like South Korea. Or Taiwan. Which are both less populous than the Philippines, and neither of which is a "niche player" in any particularly useful sense. So obviously to the extent that population matters, the Philippines is plenty large enough.

If you’re talking about 1960. Philippines per capita GDP was $260, South Korea was $150. And you’re not getting a more skilled labor force for the higher wages.
Sure you are. Plenty of Filipinos know English, so instead of needing all sorts of translation layers in between American executives and Filipino foremen, you just need a telephone. Also, Mexican GDP at the time was $341, greater than either, but the United States still ended up developing all sorts of industries there.
 
Mexican GDP at the time was $341, greater than either, but the United States still ended up developing all sorts of industries there.

Railroad and road links meant faster deliveries that across the Pacific, and container ships weren't really running til the late '50s, that would drastically cut shipping costs and time loading/unloading. By that time, the industries had been increasing since the War.

The line workers don't need to speak English, just some in upper Management to do deals
 
if it means anything, iirc the Philippines are/were a major production center for microchips used in various Japanese industries mainly because (rather predictably) it was cheaper to produce them there, but i forget if it was because it was labor or materials that were cheaper
 
You're not getting it. You keep saying "it's not big enough, it's not big enough," even though as I keep pointing out it was bigger than plenty of countries that developed perfectly successful and significant manufacturing industries. The OP's desire isn't for the Philippines to single-handle absorb every single low-wage job in the United States, it's just for them to become a major industrial nation like South Korea. Or Taiwan. Which are both less populous than the Philippines, and neither of which is a "niche player" in any particularly useful sense. So obviously to the extent that population matters, the Philippines is plenty large enough.


Sure you are. Plenty of Filipinos know English, so instead of needing all sorts of translation layers in between American executives and Filipino foremen, you just need a telephone. Also, Mexican GDP at the time was $341, greater than either, but the United States still ended up developing all sorts of industries there.

The OP was talking about the Philippines as an alternative to China in the 80s. For that the Philippines is not big enough. That their population was larger than South Korea is irrelevant.

I’m trying to make sense why you are comparing the Philippines with South Korea and I concluded you were not talking about the 1980s as the OP stipulated. If your argument is that the Philippines could have been an alternative to South Korea in the 60s I could see your point. But as I pointed out their wages were not all that competitive. That of course isn’t the only reason. A big part of low cost manufacturing is clothing exports. The global market for cheap clothing was only so big and industrialists in South Korea moved faster than their Filipino competitors. Case in point, Philippines cotton production did not surpass South Korea 1961 levels until 1991 and then it crashed.

Could they have become a manufacturing hub along side China in the 80s? I said they could’ve. But it’s tough because their wages were 4X higher and they didn’t have a domestic supply chain. China became the world supplier of clothing in the 80 and 90s because it is the largest producer of cotton and textile. China is currently off shoring to Vietnam, which has to import Chinese textile to make the clothes. There’s also button and zipper suppliers. One town in China makes 90% of the world’s zippers. You have similar problems in other industries.

As for English speaking being an advantage for manufacturing I don’t see evidence to support that. If that were true the Indian subcontinent would have an unbeatable advantage. English speaking Filipinos with a little education make much better income abroad and remittences are vital. One area the Philippines did well was call center work. But here they have to compete with cheaper Indian labor. But that’s OT since it’s not manufacturing.
 
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