Plausability Check: No Great War?

Perkeo

Banned
At practically every single step the War could have been prevented.

To name a few :

- Vienna not pushing for the de facto destruction of Serbia
- the German HQ not encouraging Vienna to strike even if Belgrade ceded on all A-H demands
- Russian FM not letting his old grudge with the A-H FM stand in the way of resolving the crisis
- France urging caution from Russia
- The German Kaiser not fanning the flames in the early stage of the crisis
- The Czar and the Kaiser being able to stand up to their own General Headquarters (making sure there's no general Russian mobilization and giving a red light the Schlieffen plan)
- Britain committing earlier (possibly deterring Germany or at least giving arguments to Bethmann-Hollweg to convince the kaiser to stop his Baltic cruise much earlier and return urgently to Berlin to stop what can still be stopped)

That would prevent THIS Great War, but do any of them mean no Great War at all?

IMO the main reason for the war is that nobody really wanted to avoid it. The July Crisis was just the trigger.
 

Cook

Banned
- The German Kaiser not fanning the flames in the early stage of the crisis

Actually he did nothing of the kind. The Kaiser took his summer holidays and was on a boat touring the Norwegian Fjords of three weeks totally out of communication. It is one of the bitter ironies of 1914 that most of the major players weren’t initially involved because they were all taking their annual leave.
 
One big thing to worry about is the upcoming renegotiation of the Ausgleich in Austria-Hungary in 1917. The Magyar nobility was becoming increasingly obstinate and hostile towards Vienna's attempts to reform the imperial structure. Tensions were already high in the 1910s, and if the more federally-minded Franz Ferdinand comes to power in 1916, I could see a war break out as the Hungarians try to leave the Dual Monarchy.

Perhaps some nations would try and subtly aid the Hungarians--reactionaries though they were--for the sake of weakening Germany's main ally.

You have a point: there are two obvious potential flash points in Europe.
One is in the Balkans, where the previous two wars have failed to provide a safe and durable balance in the region: there are too many conflicting claims, and Russia and Austria (and to a minor degree Italy) have their own conflicting agendas.
The second one is the future of A-H: I'm very sceptic about the chances of reforming the empire, whoever gets the crown in 1916. A renewal of the Ausgleich would fan the flames of Slav irredentism; a non-renewal would be seen by the Hungarians as a betrayal. In either case there would be tensions which could very easily escalate to a civil war (and again third parties would be likely to fan the flames). Which is the reason IMHO for which a "short victorious war" was seen as an obvious solution.

However if the crisis of 1914 is somehow defused, I also believe that some form of concert of Europe can be put together again and a general war averted.
 
They did IOLT following WW1, even though their use had been specifically banned. The Italians chose to use them in Abyssinia.

Same as the British did in Iraq and the Spaniards in the Rif. In all cases the use of gases was not generalised, and just vescicant/urticant agents were used, IIRC. I'm not sure if the Japanese used gases in China (but I think they did not).

The ban on the use of poison gases was always respected whenever "civilised" armies were fighting other "civilised" armies.
 
Actually he did nothing of the kind. The Kaiser took his summer holidays and was on a boat touring the Norwegian Fjords of three weeks totally out of communication. It is one of the bitter ironies of 1914 that most of the major players weren’t initially involved because they were all taking their annual leave.

He did initially, when he received the first reports saying the German ambassador was urging caution. He returned the reports to Bethmann-Hollweg with a comment saying the ambassador should stop advising restraint - and let's keep in mind that he had developed a personal relationship with Franz-Ferdinand. It is only when he returned from his cruise that the kaiser realized the magnitude of the danger.
 
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