Plausability check: coexisting Byzantine Empire and Ottoman Empire after 1453?

Once I was discussing alternate history scenarios with a friend (with whom I have no contact any longer) and I remember something being said on the following scenario: Byzantine Empire "survives", keeping its western Turkish territories plus Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, anyway, pretty much Southeastern Europe, while the Ottoman Empire expands itself to east and south much like IOTL, but leaving the European territories of Byzantine Empire undisturbed.

Would it be plausible to have such an outcome after the infamous year of 1453, in a way both survived through Renaissance, Enlightenment and Neocolonialism?

If the answer is "yes", which PODs would it take to happen? Would it last?
If the answer is "no", why exactly?
 
After Byzantium fell to the Ottomans? Maybe if Timur survived a bit longer, or somehow established a longer-lasting state, it could weaken the Ottomans through competition and conflict and allow some nationalistic Byzantine to reclaim the city of their forefathers. Trebizond was a remnant of the Empire for a while I think, perhaps if they had the support of some larger state in the west, or another crusade turned up they could reform the empire after 1453

Oh better yet, some Greek dictator or King emerges in the early 20th century, who is able to establish permenant Greek control over eastern Anatolia after WWI and proclaims himself Emperor of a new Byzantine Empire :cool: :D
 
If the answer is "no", why exactly?

The answer is no. If the Byzantines retained an approximately Komnenid-sized empire (that is, all of the Balkans plus the coast of Anatolia) then the Ottoman Turks will never arise in the first place because their founder Osman would never be born. Now, a powerful Turkish state on the Anatolian plateau that coexists with Byzantium is possible, although I'm of the opinion that sooner or later one of them will probably drive out the other.

All of this almost certainly requires a point of divergence prior to the Fourth Crusade, and maybe even before that. After 1204, the Greek successor states really lacked the power to be able to effectively stand up against the various coalitions of enemies that existed across former Byzantine territory, and were in any case badly mortgaged to one group of enemies in the Italian city states. A recovery of some sorts is possible, but regaining all of the Balkans and coastal Anatolia is very, very unlikely.

Needless to say, if you start changing history from the later twelfth century, things are going to look significantly different by 1453: not only no Ottomans, but quite possibly no Enlightenment either, and a radically different renaissance.
 
It's very difficult. I would argue that there was a 'Byzantine mentality' amongst Muslims - hadith (Abu Dawud, Kitab al-Malahim, 4281) argues that the Conquest of the Constantinople would be one of the harbingers of the End Times, where the Antichrist would descend to earth and do battle with the pious. Of course, other hadiths also predict the conquest of Rome and Europe after Constantinople, and a modern interpretation sees Constantinople as not actually referring to modern Istanbul, but back then it would have been a great impetus for any zealot to move against the Byzantine Empire.

I can't imagine an Ottoman Empire that is strong enough to fight the Mamluks and the Turkoman khanates wouldn't also take a crack at Constantinople from time to time. However, long periods of peace punctuated by short periods of hostility, especially as a new sultan seeks to establish his authority over his rule, is very possible - but that requires the Byzantines to be able to fend off Turkish attacks every time (difficult, given their tendency to civil war).
 
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How different, exactly?

A less "eventual" Renaissance to begin with. You did had regular changes in western Europe before 1453 (as the so-called XIIth Renaissance), but they were gradual.

The introduction of Greek works (Scientific and philosophic works were known in Medieval Europe, but not the other) and afflux of Hellenic scholars after 1453 representated a radical rupture, and a window opened on original features rather than seen trough medieval point of view (even if this one was made of regular and continual changes).

The absence of an Ottoman threat on Danube and Balkans would have several geopolitical consequences, as allowing more ressources to not be diverted, and used for either inner conflicts or inner development.
 
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