Plausability check China fights Japan over Ryukyus?

raharris1973

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The Ryukyu (Liuchiu) archipelago and Kingdom was a tributary of China before 1609, and for centuries afterward owed double-vassalage to both China and the Shimazu clan of Satsuma.

What if at any point between 1609 and 1879 China tried to repel the Japanese from the islands. Could they have succeeded at any of those times, and how much might things have escalateed with reinforcements coming from both countries?

Some potential timeframes for a struggle-

1609 - the Ming move to resist or counter the initial Satsuma invasion

later 1600s - the Qing, presumably at some point after the conquest of the Pescadores and absorption of Taiwan (1683) move to expel the Japanese from Okinawa and make it an exclusive Qing sphere.

1700s - Qianlong, after wiping out the Mongols and securing China's land boundaries in the 1760s, then moves to enforce historic claims of overlordship of the Liuchius

1874 or later - the Qing, in a resurgence after crushing the Taiping and Nien and Muslim rebellions by generals Zeng and Zuo, forcibly resist the Japanese punitive expedition against Taiwan, and move to forcibly assert the Liuchius' status as a Chinese, not Japanese, protectorate --

Or, the Qing work harder to diplomatically stay relevant, by taking responsibility for the Taiwan aborigines of the Mudan incident as a domestic matter, to preempt the 1874 Japanese expedition. Or, what if later on, when the Japanese offered to split the Ryukyus in half, the Qing accepted the deal?
 
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1609 - Unlikely. The Ming defence force in the Ryukyu (if it even exists) will have to hold out against a Satsuma military that has had plenty of experience with firearms, navies, and military tactics from both the Imjin and Sengoku Jidai wars. It's even worse if the Ming responds after the Satsuma invasion and has to dislodge the Japanese from Okinawa.

Later 1600s - Most likely scenario. Qing has a good open-waters navy at this point experienced in fighting, and a decent commander under Shi Lang. Conversely Japan will likely have neither, and will be thrown on the back foot as it has to respond to Qing movements regarding the Ryukyus.

1760s - Not very likely. The Qing navy has atrophied at this point and so, to a large extent, has the Qing army. Japan is deep in its Sakoku policy during this period but it still maintains a strong interest in trade, as well as in the Ryukyus.

1874 - Considering the deficiency in Chinese naval leadership and equipment during this period, I have difficulty seeing how China can win against Japan over the Ryukyus, which is modernizing at a similar, if not faster, rate.
 

raharris1973

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1609 - Unlikely. The Ming defence force in the Ryukyu (if it even exists) will have to hold out against a Satsuma military that has had plenty of experience with firearms, navies, and military tactics from both the Imjin and Sengoku Jidai wars. It's even worse if the Ming responds after the Satsuma invasion and has to dislodge the Japanese from Okinawa.

But don't the Ming forces have Imjin War experience of their own?
After the Imjin War, the Ming showed they could deploy armies of a few hundred thousand, cavalry and cannon and all, in areas as far apart as Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and the Korean Peninsula.

The Chinese were the winning side after all. And how good were the Japanese naval forces. During the Imjin War they were bested by Korean and Chinese fleets. Also, I would not rule out Korean naval intervention on the side of the Ming.

Later 1600s - Most likely scenario. Qing has a good open-waters navy at this point experienced in fighting, and a decent commander under Shi Lang. Conversely Japan will likely have neither, and will be thrown on the back foot as it has to respond to Qing movements regarding the Ryukyus.

Yes- that's when the Qing had the most momentum, from their investment in the conquest of Taiwan.

1760s - Not very likely. The Qing navy has atrophied at this point and so, to a large extent, has the Qing army. Japan is deep in its Sakoku policy during this period but it still maintains a strong interest in trade, as well as in the Ryukyus.

The Qing army atrophied at this point? But they just finished conquering the Dzhungars and claiming all Xinjiang in 1763. Does not sound like an atrophied army to me, even if it may not be particularly optimized for littoral warfare.

1874 - Considering the deficiency in Chinese naval leadership and equipment during this period, I have difficulty seeing how China can win against Japan over the Ryukyus, which is modernizing at a similar, if not faster, rate.

I guess I would agree here about the Chinese not winning, but I am a little bit fuzzy on the relative naval strengths of China and Japan from between 1853 up to 1893. Although China seemed fairly passive in the early middle 1870s over Taiwan, by the middle 1880s the Chinese were feeling stronger navally than the Japanese, as shown in the Nagasaki incident of 1886 and its aftermath. So I'm not sure what the power curve was like, possibly the Japanese ahead from the late 1860s through 1870s, with the Chinese pulling ahead in the 1880s, and the Japanese pulling ahead again in the 1890s, (and much of the world not realizing it until the Japanese attacked and beat the Chinese).

China also showed some cockiness in the late 1870s with the confrontation with Russia over Ili, and their willingness to confront France over Tonkin later in the 1880s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagasaki_Incident
In 1 August 1886 (Meiji 19), the Qing Dynasty's navy called the Beiyang Fleet, the four warships, the Dingyuan (定遠), the Zhenyuan (鎮遠), the Jiyuan (济远), and Weiyuan (威遠), entered the Nagasaki harbor port on the pretense of "military repairs". At that time, China (Qing Dynasty) was much stronger than Japan.[1] The Dingyuan was a heavier ship than the heaviest Japanese cruisers. In addition, Japan had suffered a setback during the Gapsin Coup in which 400 Japanese soldiers were defeated by 2000 Qing soldiers.[citation needed]

On August 13, 500 Chinese troops began to land. They went to the red-light district, wrecked fixtures, and caused trouble through lawless violent acts, and looted the city of Nagasaki. Drunken Chinese soldiers went around the city pursuing women and children, causing outrages[citation needed]. Nagasaki Prefecture Police Department tried to stop this. As a result, the policemen and Chinese soldiers began to fight hand-to-hand in sword battles within the city. There were at least 80 deaths on both sides, and the soldiers were arrested. They used swords purchased from stores.[2] As a result, a sense of unrest thus pervaded.

On August 14, at a conference between the governor of Nagasaki prefecture, Kusaka Yoshio, and the Qing consulate Xuan Cai, the Qing navy prohibited its soldiers from going on land as a group, and agreed that when soldiers are on leave, they would be overseen by an officer.

On August 15 at around 1 PM about 300 Chinese troops went ashore, violating the agreement. Some were armed with clubs. Several Chinese urinated on a Kōban (交番 kōban), police box. Some Chinese sailors attacked three police officers, resulting in one death.[3] A driver of a rickshaw (jinrikisha) who saw this was indignant about this, and tried to punch a Chinese sailor with his fist. In response, the Chinese sailors began a riot. Thus, another big incident began as the policemen who came to stop this and the Chinese sailors once again began fighting, with various casualties (On the Qing side, 1 officer died and 3 were injured, and 3 soldiers died and at least 50 were injured. On the Japanese side, 3 police officers were injured, 2 constables died, and 16 were injured. Several tens of Japanese civilians were also injured).


After the incident, the Qing did not apologize to Japan, and behaved with confidence believing in the superiority of their navy. At that time, the Qing possessed the newest model of navy battleships, the Dingyuan. It was thought that the Japanese navy could not match this ship at this time, having a heavier tonnage than modern French built Japanese cruisers. (The Dingyuan was eventually scuttled after the Battle of Weihaiwei) Japan's setback during the Gapsin Coup, in which 400 Japanese soldiers had been driven off by 2000 Qing soldiers was still recent and fresh.[citation needed]

The Qing made demands to the Japanese government that from then on, the Japanese police would not prohibit the wielding of swords, in which they succeeded.[4] However, as a result of this incident, anti-Qing sentiment rose in Japan, presaging further confrontation.
 

raharris1973

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Later 1600s - Most likely scenario. Qing has a good open-waters navy at this point experienced in fighting, and a decent commander under Shi Lang. Conversely Japan will likely have neither, and will be thrown on the back foot as it has to respond to Qing movements regarding the Ryukyus.

I wonder if a defeat at the hands of China and loss of Okinawan tribute in the time between 1683 and 1703 could shake the sakoku policy of the tokugawas, or if it would just make the Shogunate dig into it more deeply.
 
But don't the Ming forces have Imjin War experience of their own?

The Ming were hardly exemplars of military genius in the Imjin War or the Manchu Conquest that took place a generation later. I don't doubt their administrative or logistics capabilities - they can certainly send a fleet to Okinawa - but whether they can actually dislodge the Satsuma from Okinawa is an issue. It's probably not possible for the Ming to send more than ten thousand to the islands, which means that their advantage in numbers would be around the 3:1 attacker-defender ratio, assuming no additional Japanese help.

The Chinese were the winning side after all. And how good were the Japanese naval forces. During the Imjin War they were bested by Korean and Chinese fleets. Also, I would not rule out Korean naval intervention on the side of the Ming.

The Ming naval force wasn't much to speak of considering that state policy was fundamentally aligned against maritime activity after the 15th century. And judging from the Korean naval experience in the Imjin War, I'd expect their best warships to be coastal rather than long-range, which means that they're not designed for long-distance expeditions like the one to Okinawa.

The Qing army atrophied at this point? But they just finished conquering the Dzhungars and claiming all Xinjiang in 1763. Does not sound like an atrophied army to me, even if it may not be particularly optimized for littoral warfare.

Well as you said, it's not optimized for littoral warfare. In any case, the Qing achievement was more a logistical one, since traditionally the horde tactic was to withdraw to areas beyond the reach of settled armies, which the Qing foiled competently but with considerable administrative expense. And judging from the military results of the other "Ten Great Campaigns" (like Vietnam and Burma), the Qing Army was past its peak.

I guess I would agree here about the Chinese not winning, but I am a little bit fuzzy on the relative naval strengths of China and Japan from between 1853 up to 1893. Although China seemed fairly passive in the early middle 1870s over Taiwan, by the middle 1880s the Chinese were feeling stronger navally than the Japanese, as shown in the Nagasaki incident of 1886 and its aftermath. So I'm not sure what the power curve was like, possibly the Japanese ahead from the late 1860s through 1870s, with the Chinese pulling ahead in the 1880s, and the Japanese pulling ahead again in the 1890s, (and much of the world not realizing it until the Japanese attacked and beat the Chinese).

I'd say that the Qing maintained superiority in naval tonnage all the way to the 1890s. But that's the point - it was naval tonnage. Even their best-fought war, the Sino-French war, saw pretty awful deficiencies in Chinese naval personnel: poor coordination, low morale, and inter-regional rivalries. It's not something that is easily measured, but I don't think the Qing really had a chance against Japan. Self-Strengthening Reformers ultimately couldn't resist going for the 'flashy' big-ticket battleships over the more mundane issues of personnel training.
 
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