The Ryukyu (Liuchiu) archipelago and Kingdom was a tributary of China before 1609, and for centuries afterward owed double-vassalage to both China and the Shimazu clan of Satsuma.
What if at any point between 1609 and 1879 China tried to repel the Japanese from the islands. Could they have succeeded at any of those times, and how much might things have escalateed with reinforcements coming from both countries?
Some potential timeframes for a struggle-
1609 - the Ming move to resist or counter the initial Satsuma invasion
later 1600s - the Qing, presumably at some point after the conquest of the Pescadores and absorption of Taiwan (1683) move to expel the Japanese from Okinawa and make it an exclusive Qing sphere.
1700s - Qianlong, after wiping out the Mongols and securing China's land boundaries in the 1760s, then moves to enforce historic claims of overlordship of the Liuchius
1874 or later - the Qing, in a resurgence after crushing the Taiping and Nien and Muslim rebellions by generals Zeng and Zuo, forcibly resist the Japanese punitive expedition against Taiwan, and move to forcibly assert the Liuchius' status as a Chinese, not Japanese, protectorate --
Or, the Qing work harder to diplomatically stay relevant, by taking responsibility for the Taiwan aborigines of the Mudan incident as a domestic matter, to preempt the 1874 Japanese expedition. Or, what if later on, when the Japanese offered to split the Ryukyus in half, the Qing accepted the deal?
What if at any point between 1609 and 1879 China tried to repel the Japanese from the islands. Could they have succeeded at any of those times, and how much might things have escalateed with reinforcements coming from both countries?
Some potential timeframes for a struggle-
1609 - the Ming move to resist or counter the initial Satsuma invasion
later 1600s - the Qing, presumably at some point after the conquest of the Pescadores and absorption of Taiwan (1683) move to expel the Japanese from Okinawa and make it an exclusive Qing sphere.
1700s - Qianlong, after wiping out the Mongols and securing China's land boundaries in the 1760s, then moves to enforce historic claims of overlordship of the Liuchius
1874 or later - the Qing, in a resurgence after crushing the Taiping and Nien and Muslim rebellions by generals Zeng and Zuo, forcibly resist the Japanese punitive expedition against Taiwan, and move to forcibly assert the Liuchius' status as a Chinese, not Japanese, protectorate --
Or, the Qing work harder to diplomatically stay relevant, by taking responsibility for the Taiwan aborigines of the Mudan incident as a domestic matter, to preempt the 1874 Japanese expedition. Or, what if later on, when the Japanese offered to split the Ryukyus in half, the Qing accepted the deal?
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