Plausability and what if Russia is Britain's Naval competitor

Is there any way that Czarist Russia could be the power completing for Naval supremacy instead of Germany?

If so what does happen?

Could Russia have in fact defeated Japan at Tsushima. Would that have changed that war's outcome?
 
Is there any way that Czarist Russia could be the power completing for Naval supremacy instead of Germany?

If so what does happen?

Could Russia have in fact defeated Japan at Tsushima. Would that have changed that war's outcome?
IMO, only if there's somehow a war between the Great Powers, but one in which Russia doesn't actively take part, and which leads to the British and German fleets destroying each other.
 

Redbeard

Banned
I think we only need butterflies to have the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 end in a humiliating Japanese defeat. The Japanese had almost spent all their resources when some lucky hits at the battle of Tushima took out the Russian leadership and gave the Japanese a crushing victory.

My basic claim is that anything but a crushing victory will force the Japanese to seek peace.

And anything less than the OTL humiliating defeat will improve the chances of Imperial Russia surviving.

Before OTL Tushima Russia was very much seen as a(the) potential rival of the British Empire, but Tushima and the simultaneous German naval expansion at least temporarily changed this as France, Russia and the British found together vs. Germany.

The Imperial Russian naval expansion programme from before WWI was very impressive however and if the Russian empire had survived WWI it would IMHO be a good question when the British-Russian rivalry would be reborn.

If Russia achieve a crushing victory vs. Japan I think the chances of an alliance containing both Russia and the British would be much less likely.

I'm confident however that the Kaiser would not see a strategic opportunity - not even if it presented itself as an elephant on his toes...
 
Is there any way that Czarist Russia could be the power completing for Naval supremacy instead of Germany?

If so what does happen?

Leave the Pacific and Black Sea fleets as bare bones (topedo boat/destroyers, plus an odd cruiser of two), push for 'Arctic fleet'. Don't loose by Japanese in 1904/05.

Could Russia have in fact defeated Japan at Tsushima. Would that have changed that war's outcome?

Having all of their big gun ships in Europe means the Japanese can't destroy them piecemeal. Thus when Tsushima happens, Russians have 3 times as many battleships as Japanese, and perhaps 2 times as much of the cruisers. Decisive defeat at sea puts wrench on Japanese land offensive plans.
 
Is there any way that Czarist Russia could be the power completing for Naval supremacy instead of Germany?

If so what does happen?

Could Russia have in fact defeated Japan at Tsushima. Would that have changed that war's outcome?

Johnboys Errant Shell story starts with a POD at Tsushima

They are generally a British ally however in that story

Now Russia is only really competing with the British Empire on Land and the 'Great Game' was not actually taken all that seriously except as a tool to leverage greater Military expendature in both countries so its not inconcivable that even with a large fleet the Russians are not seen to be as big a threat as say the Germans, Italians, French, Americans and Japanese would be to the British Empire

So we might end up with a situation where, following a Rusisan Victory at Tsushima with British help, the Russian fleet is actually stood up to help over match the Germans in the 1900s, 1910s and 20s which is not a million miles away from what happened or nearly happened as WW1 and Russian Revolution interrupted proceedings.

A number of Russian Battleships such as the Gangut (which I really like) while delayed OTL might have proven to be a serious threat to the German HSF

After all the Japanese followed Vickers designs - with Kongo the lead ship of her class being built at Barrow upon Furness by Vickers and the company training up skilled Japanese workers allowing the follow on 3 ships to be built in Japan

So we could have a similiar situation with the Russians using British designs as the basis of their fleet having a larger than OTL main battle fleet of say planned to be 15 - 20 Fast Dreadnought Battleships and modern Battle Cruisers by 1920?

Again this is not far from what happened with the Ganguts leveraging Yarrow small tube boilers to give their ships a speed advantage over the German main Fleet of the day

So perhaps a slightly larger Gangut design using the British 13.5 (in 4 centreline non superfiring triples) and yarrow small tube boilers to provide the extra SHP

Then worried about the German Battlecruisers - they like Japan commission their own version of the Lion class with the first built in the UK and the others built in Russian Ship yards (to still the voices of outrage that would have resulted if all had been built in the UK)
 
Is there any way that Czarist Russia could be the power completing for Naval supremacy instead of Germany?

If so what does happen?

Could Russia have in fact defeated Japan at Tsushima. Would that have changed that war's outcome?
Russia was considered the main competitor in 1900. The Anglo Japanses alliance was purely aimed at Russia and it gave the Japanese the freedom to remove the Russian threat without French interference in 1904.

The Anglo French Entente was aimed at separating French from Russia in the case of war. It was only after Japan revealed Russia to be weaker than it was thought to be that Britain and Russian relations warmed.
 
I think a simple delay to WW1 or a bit of an acceleration of the OTL building schedule would be enough to put the wind up Britain.

Russia laid down 4 dreadnought BBs in the Baltic in 1909, 3 in the Black Sea in 1911 and 4 dreadnought BCs in the Baltic in 1912. Once the war broke out the Russians laid down a 4th BB in the Black Sea in 1915.

Once these were finished in maybe 1916 or so the Baltic Fleet wouldn't be something the British could ignore, they'd have to be 'marked' by maybe 15 capital ships to ensure that these 8 ships could be met by 10 or 11 RN ships 24/7 in case they entered the North Sea. The RN Med fleet would also have to contain 6 or so capital ships for 4 or so to 'mark' the Black Sea fleet 24/7 in case it entered the Med, this would tie up the bulk of the RN's dreadnought fleet.
 
I think a simple delay to WW1 or a bit of an acceleration of the OTL building schedule would be enough to put the wind up Britain.

Russia laid down 4 dreadnought BBs in the Baltic in 1909, 3 in the Black Sea in 1911 and 4 dreadnought BCs in the Baltic in 1912. Once the war broke out the Russians laid down a 4th BB in the Black Sea in 1915.

Once these were finished in maybe 1916 or so the Baltic Fleet wouldn't be something the British could ignore, they'd have to be 'marked' by maybe 15 capital ships to ensure that these 8 ships could be met by 10 or 11 RN ships 24/7 in case they entered the North Sea. The RN Med fleet would also have to contain 6 or so capital ships for 4 or so to 'mark' the Black Sea fleet 24/7 in case it entered the Med, this would tie up the bulk of the RN's dreadnought fleet.

Depends who allies with who?
 
That's right, but adding this completed Russian fleet to almost anyone would provide a massive problem for the British.

If they added it to Germany then Britain is in deep trouble.

Then again, who wants a hegemonic/geopolitical jugernaught on continental Eastern Europe less than Germany? G.B already was able to achieve detente with her centuries long primary rival in France to contain the German upstart once their interests align.
 
Then again, who wants a hegemonic/geopolitical jugernaught on continental Eastern Europe less than Germany? G.B already was able to achieve detente with her centuries long primary rival in France to contain the German upstart once their interests align.

That's right, but who knows what event around the world could motivate these 2 powers to align in some common interest.

Or perhaps if the CP won WW1 the Russians might find it convenient to align with the victorious Germany in the early 20s, adding their 16 capital ships to the party.
 

trurle

Banned
I think we only need butterflies to have the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 end in a humiliating Japanese defeat. The Japanese had almost spent all their resources when some lucky hits at the battle of Tushima took out the Russian leadership and gave the Japanese a crushing victory.

My basic claim is that anything but a crushing victory will force the Japanese to seek peace.

And anything less than the OTL humiliating defeat will improve the chances of Imperial Russia surviving.

Before OTL Tushima Russia was very much seen as a(the) potential rival of the British Empire, but Tushima and the simultaneous German naval expansion at least temporarily changed this as France, Russia and the British found together vs. Germany.

The Imperial Russian naval expansion programme from before WWI was very impressive however and if the Russian empire had survived WWI it would IMHO be a good question when the British-Russian rivalry would be reborn.

If Russia achieve a crushing victory vs. Japan I think the chances of an alliance containing both Russia and the British would be much less likely.

I'm confident however that the Kaiser would not see a strategic opportunity - not even if it presented itself as an elephant on his toes...
The Russian fleet of 1905 has too severe management, staffing and maintenance problems. What`s why Japanese were able to decisively defeat it despite technological and numerical parity. If you want Russian Navy to become competitive, you need to change the entire political system of Tsarist Russia. OTL system just wasted too much resources (both human and monetary) for corruption, leaving not enough for effective fleet.
I think the early constitutional monarchy or republic government in Russia will help a bit.
 
The Russian fleet of 1905 has too severe management, staffing and maintenance problems. What`s why Japanese were able to decisively defeat it despite technological and numerical parity. If you want Russian Navy to become competitive, you need to change the entire political system of Tsarist Russia. OTL system just wasted too much resources (both human and monetary) for corruption, leaving not enough for effective fleet.
I think the early constitutional monarchy or republic government in Russia will help a bit.

Imperial Russian constitutional reform, talk about thread creep!

What was the structure of the Russian government/legislature, and how did it change?
 

Redbeard

Banned
The Russian fleet of 1905 has too severe management, staffing and maintenance problems. What`s why Japanese were able to decisively defeat it despite technological and numerical parity. If you want Russian Navy to become competitive, you need to change the entire political system of Tsarist Russia. OTL system just wasted too much resources (both human and monetary) for corruption, leaving not enough for effective fleet.
I think the early constitutional monarchy or republic government in Russia will help a bit.
I agree that the Imperial Russian navy had its problems but nothing that prevented it from simply being lucky and winning an important battle. Russian gunnery actually was quite good and Togo's flagships was hit 30 times during the battle, 15 of the hits inside the first five minuttes. If one of those hits had been similar to that on Bordino, which caused her to explode, the batlle could have gone very differently - and we all today would speak of the magnificient Russian fleet keeping its high training standards through a travel around half the planet...bla-bla....
 
The Kaiser pushed his cousin Nicholas I into the Russo-Japanese War in 1904, bigging him up as the defender of the west against the "yellow peril". It was done intentionally so as to try and focus Russia on expansion in the far east, thus drawing their focus (and armies) away from Europe, pulling Russia away from France and towards a German alliance.

If Russia wins the war, and they secure their warm water port at Port Arthur, then you could conceivable see a naval build up in the pacific that the British would see as a challenge, but they'd still have Japan as an ally to counter this in this area, and it's hard to imagine the Russians being able to build up big enough fleets in Europe to challenge Britain - especially when geography is taken into account.

The Baltic fleet is going to be bottled up behind Sweden and Denmark, and Britain is going to know in advance of any sortie. A Black Sea fleet build up would likely push the Ottomans into a British alliance and a closing of the Dardanelles.

Russia's naval problem has always been one of strategic position - all her ports are either ice bound in the winter or in strategically poor positions (or both).
 

GarethC

Donor
Wandering into pre-1900, but if Alexander II manages to avoid being assassinated (not simple, as his route was regular and there was a third bomber waiting in case the first two both failed) then give him another decade or so to get Russia's industrialization further along earlier. If he is notably successful with his reforms, or even just manages to break even but dies peacefully in bed, then Alexander III may be less reactionary and let Russian industry ramp up to be able to compete with Tirpitz's naval expansion - and coincidentally outgun Japan sufficiently to make Tsushima have a different outcome, although it will require a fleet that does not get confused between British fishing boats and Japanese cruisers in the North Sea.

With more concern about Russia, Britain is less amenable to an Entente in the decade after Victoria's passing (where family ties were keeping the lid on Anglo-Prusso-Russian tensions).
With a larger Russian Baltic shipbuilding programme, Wilhelm II doesn't scale down German fleet construction in 1911-12.

With a more capable Russia (and possibly an earlier overhaul of the Russian army, given a successful RJW), Germany doesn't write Austria a blank cheque assuming the Black Hand does something stupid in the mid-teens.

Austria avoids triggering a war with lesser demands on Serbia than OTL which are met.

It's in the latter part of the teens that French revanchism over Elsass-Lothringen triggers the Franco-Russo-German war, which Germany loses handily. Asquith does a little smug backslapping over avoiding any Imperial entanglements until the greater part of the HSF is seized by Russia in violation of both an agreement with Britain and the surrender with Germany. Faced with near-parity in the North Sea, and the prospect that an ebullient Tsar may stand up for another round of the Great Game, Asquith declares war on Russia - his casus belli is that of atrocities against British nationals in Germany after the surrender,

France, suffering manpower losses from the FRG war, and with occupation zones to administer, sits this one out.
Japan, smarting after last time, but with proper assistance from the RN promised, doesn't.

The theaters are largely Korea, Afghanistan, and the Baltic.
The fighting on land is inconclusive.
However, the war at sea is not.
Raids on Arkhangelsk and in the Black Sea by battlecruisers and light forces respectively sting Nicholas into ordering a clash of battle lines. In the Bothnian Gulf, the Baltic Fleet meets the Home Fleet.
 
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