Planning the Post-Manned Mars Mission Programs

So, I finally reached the 1990s in To The Planets Beyond. Thus far, I ran into a little problem: what to do after the manned missions to Mars and Venus (in this timeline, under the Ares and Aphrodite programs, albeit using the IMIS design. So, if going by this chronology here, what should I do regarding the future of the world's space programs starting in 1991?

To The Planets Beyond
 

TFSmith121

Banned
What's the goal? Pure science and survey or colonization?

So, I finally reached the 1990s in To The Planets Beyond. Thus far, I ran into a little problem: what to do after the manned missions to Mars and Venus (in this timeline, under the Ares and Aphrodite programs, albeit using the IMIS design. So, if going by this chronology here, what should I do regarding the future of the world's space programs starting in 1991?

To The Planets Beyond

What's the goal? Pure science and survey or true colonization?

Technically and operationally, it would be Mercury and the Belt, but you need a strategic goal/purpose for the political backing...

After that, island-hop to the outer planets.

If there's a research base on Mars and an orbital lab around Venus by 2000, Mercury is the obvious next step inwards and the Belt (Ceres or something else with a decent amount of useful rock and ice) outwards, figure by 2010-2020 using the man-objective-decade approach.

After that, Jovian System by 2030 and Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and (possibly) Pluto-Charon by 2070. (2069 would be a resonant target date, if all is as historical up to Apollo XI).;)

Then, dig in and build up population and sustainable industries on the Moon and Mars, with as much survey work and resource exploitation as makes sense elsewhere.

Best,
 
What's the goal? Pure science and survey or true colonization?

Technically and operationally, it would be Mercury and the Belt, but you need a strategic goal/purpose for the political backing...

After that, island-hop to the outer planets.

If there's a research base on Mars and an orbital lab around Venus by 2000, Mercury is the obvious next step inwards and the Belt (Ceres or something else with a decent amount of useful rock and ice) outwards, figure by 2010-2020 using the man-objective-decade approach.

After that, Jovian System by 2030 and Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and (possibly) Pluto-Charon by 2070. (2069 would be a resonant target date, if all is as historical up to Apollo XI).;)

Then, dig in and build up population and sustainable industries on the Moon and Mars, with as much survey work and resource exploitation as makes sense elsewhere.

Best,

Hmmmmm. Come to think about it, I am indecisive in that regard. What do you propose is the most plausible path?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Read your sketch; the orbiting nukes idea is really

Hmmmmm. Come to think about it, I am indecisive in that regard. What do you propose is the most plausible path?

Read your sketch; the orbiting nukes idea is really bad strategy. Both sides in the Cold War benefitted from not weaponzing space. Don't see that happening at all.

Beyond that, the Soviets would have a really difficult time getting to the Moon before the US and managing Salyut at the same time; they ran into resource limitations, just like the US.

I'd expect a ASTP type effort at a joint LEO station, and then a joint FLO, is the most likely path for a sustained HSF effort in the 1970s that would set the stage for a joint effort at the inner planets in the 1980s.

Once the Cold War ends and the WP and USSR break up (because of economic issues, if nothing else), I could see a joint US-Russia-European effort.

Survey first, but the concept of a permanent human presence on the Moon is certainly possible (akin to Antarctica); once that happens, people will be tempted to stay.

Inner planets survey follows, with a similar series of outposts, surface or orbital, by the middle of the century; the Belt and outer planets would be surveyed, but economic exploitation is probably a task for late in the century or early in the 22nd.

Best,
 
What's the goal? Pure science and survey or true colonization?

Technically and operationally, it would be Mercury and the Belt, but you need a strategic goal/purpose for the political backing...
Asteroid mining. Sure it'd be as much about the status as the cash, but there is at least a cash (and thus political) incentive.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Possibly, but any real economic return is well

Asteroid mining. Sure it'd be as much about the status as the cash, but there is at least a cash (and thus political) incentive.

Possibly, but any real economic return is well out in the 21st, if then; demand has to be in place first.

A lasting detente leading to an even "softer" landing for Russia et al post-Cold War is the only likely path I can see for a sustained post-Apollo HSF effort in the 1970s and onwards.

If the POD is farther back, however, other possibilities arise, but in a world as it was post 1945, I don't see much beyond what we've seen historically, unless detente continues past the mid-70s.

Best,
 

Archibald

Banned
Asteroid mining - seconded, but not for the rare metals. If too much rare metals gets minned out of asteroids the (Earth) market would crash and thus your space business would go bankrupt.
Planetary Resources has a better idea: mine water, use solar arrays to split it into liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen, and sell that as chemical propellant for a Mars trip (either NASA or private).
The reasonning: it is much less expensive to haul all that propellant from asteroids rather than lift it through Earth steep gravity well)
 
Asteroid mining - seconded, but not for the rare metals. If too much rare metals gets minned out of asteroids the (Earth) market would crash and thus your space business would go bankrupt.
Maybe, although it could be said that for some of the rarer platinum-group metals their very rarity is holding them back as commercial products, and greater production would lead to greater utilisation, thus raising the price again.
 
let's look on the IMIS design infrastructure

Upgraded Saturn V also with large Solid Booster
Saturn IB and six men apollo CSM
Mission Module, Mars Exploration Module and unmanned probes
Nuklear Propulsion Module with NERVA engine

so Space Station Freedom would not be, the OTL frame work with tiny cans
but big Modular Station build from IMIS Mission Module (Skylab size) supply by CSM

either return to Moon and build a base there
or return to Mars and build semi permanent outpost there
another option would manned flight to Jupiter, but that is very difficult do distance and travel time of 5 years
 
let's look on the IMIS design infrastructure

Upgraded Saturn V also with large Solid Booster
Saturn IB and six men apollo CSM
Mission Module, Mars Exploration Module and unmanned probes
Nuklear Propulsion Module with NERVA engine

so Space Station Freedom would not be, the OTL frame work with tiny cans
but big Modular Station build from IMIS Mission Module (Skylab size) supply by CSM

either return to Moon and build a base there
or return to Mars and build semi permanent outpost there
another option would manned flight to Jupiter, but that is very difficult do distance and travel time of 5 years

Makes sense. But what should I do in regards to the collapse of the USSR once the late 1990s arrive?
 
But what should I do in regards to the collapse of the USSR once the late 1990s arrive?

That's bad
a similar situations to Apollo program
The Soviet din't land cosmonaut there, Nixon let the program run, until NASA run out of Money and Hardware.
and Apollo was ended with Mission 17 and rest were used for Skylab and ASTP.

From this point the Space station Freedom would 1990s analog to Skylab, the last remain of great space program...
...except USA start new cold war with another nation, china perhaps ?
 
That's bad
a similar situations to Apollo program
The Soviet din't land cosmonaut there, Nixon let the program run, until NASA run out of Money and Hardware.
and Apollo was ended with Mission 17 and rest were used for Skylab and ASTP.

From this point the Space station Freedom would 1990s analog to Skylab, the last remain of great space program...
...except USA start new cold war with another nation, china perhaps ?

How do you propose China replaces the USSR in regards to the new Cold War, then?
 
How do you propose China replaces the USSR in regards to the new Cold War, then?

That a possibly, or the USA quarrel with successor of USSR.
Or that Third world nations start space race see India of Brazil get into space

fact is there no challenge for USA to beat another Nations, they stop there effort
See how US space program scaled down, after Soviet failed to land cosmonaut on Moon.
 
That a possibly, or the USA quarrel with successor of USSR.
Or that Third world nations start space race see India of Brazil get into space

fact is there no challenge for USA to beat another Nations, they stop there effort
See how US space program scaled down, after Soviet failed to land cosmonaut on Moon.

So, Space Race II is basically China, India, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, etc.? Interesting.
 
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