Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
- Start date
So, basically... Germany's the new Britain and Italy's the new France in this European order.
I was under the possibly (mis)understanding that IEA was given to the UK?! Been a long time lurker and fan of 'almost' everything I have read here in this very enjoyable and fun ATL. Hats off to the "Kaiser", and well done, sir! I was waiting for the war to end, and what I then assumed would be the end of the thread, but it seems there is more to come, and so I will not post my 2 issues here/yet. If anyone were interested in my muddled thoughts for this threads ATL, just PM me and I'd be happy to share, but don't want to clutter up the actual thread with them. 
It will experience a full Russian Civil War: Communists v Tsarists before too long, yes.
I don't want to go for full parallelism, but that's not a bad way to think of it.
There are multiple routes for Japan to go down in this timeline. It's been spoiled that a Pacific War happens, but little else (and keep in mind, the possibility of a Japanese-American War had existed for decades before Japan was fully taken over by the militarists)
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So, I said I was going to talk about naval matters and where everyone is going and what changes there are with the war ending where it is, so...
Great Britain: Lots of ambiguity. The Royal Navy's position is a bit of a mixed bag from OTL. On the one hand, an earlier end to the war means a. more money to work with and b. more time to start building ships to match the giants the United States and Japan are building. On the other, Germany is still out there, with a large fleet, and a great many ships were completed during WWI OTL that may not be completed here, mostly light cruisers and destroyers, which were useful in the 1930s and WWI. I do think they'll complete most of the planned light cruisers, i.e. the remaining C-class, the D-class, and more E-class, as well as the V&W-class destroyers, but the Hawkins class might be terminated in favor of a more advanced design.
There are two priorities now for construction: the next generation of capital ships to match the US and Japanese navies and replace the 12" ships, which are all reaching the end of their engine lives, and recapitalization of the trade protection fleet. The former is self-explanatory, but in the latter case all of Britain's trade protection cruisers are currently obsolescent, obsolete, or are rocking 1st-gen steam turbines that are not long from giving out. I expect Hood and all four of her sisters to be completed to Hood's revised design. The Brits need ships to counter the German Mackensen and follow-ons, which outclass the Cats and will outclass the Renowns even after re-armoring.
Germany: Germany even before the start of WWI was moving away from funding their navy to the same levels as the cost of ships escalated and expansion of the army took priority. This doesn't change after WWI with the German government saddled with enormous amounts of debt and faced with long-term occupations in former French and Russian territory.
The first priority is to complete ships ordered and/or under construction: the last two Bayerns, the Mackensen and Ersatz Yorck-class battlecruisers, and the Koln II-class light cruisers. Ships divested would be the older VTE cruisers, the predreadnoughts, and likely the VTE Helgoland and Nassau classes. This would give the Germans a formidable fleet, but afterwards their priorities are similar to that of the British: recapitalize the overseas cruiser fleet, and a new generation of battleships to match the monsters in the US and Japan.
Luckily for Germany, the new battleships are already being worked on. The L20e series should have already started, and while their armor scheme is outdated they would've been fast and powerful ships. I expect them to get the go-ahead, with the 15" series of battlecruisers likely discarded in favor of more of the fast battleships to suit Kaiser Wilhelm's ideas about merging the dreadnought and the battlecruiser. The FK series should cover the need for fleet cruisers, which means a new colonial cruiser to replace the old - and mostly sunk - armored cruisers is the main priority.
United States: At this time the United States Navy is proceeding with their 1916 program, without the OTL delays caused by their participation in WWI. That's 10 battleships, 6 battlecruisers, 10 light cruisers, and 50 destroyers. At a stroke, the US Navy is giving themselves a battle fleet practically unmatched. The Colorados will all be laid down 1917, followed by the South Dakotas after some post-Jutland tweaks in 1918/1919, and then the redesigned Lexingtons 1919/1920. The entire program will be done by 1924.
Without these delays the US Navy can also get the march on follow-on designs, such as plans for 18" battleships, improved destroyers, and a veritable flood of 8" scout cruisers. This is almost certainly causing severe indigestion in British and German naval intelligence.
Japan: Japan should be proceeding as OTL, as they have no reason to deviate. This is still worrying, given Nagato and Mutsu are already under construction.
France/Russia: Irrevocably fucked.
Italy: Italy is in an interesting position. The Carraciolo-class battleships are still under construction, and with an earlier end to the war and a much less dire financial situation they could be completed, but even moreso than what's being worked on in Britain and Germany they represent rather outdated naval thinking. The Italians are also desperately short of modern cruisers and aren't getting any war prizes as they did OTL. Be interesting to see what they do.
Austria: All their naval shipyards were ceded to Italy. They're done as a naval power for the foreseeable future.
Great Britain: Lots of ambiguity. The Royal Navy's position is a bit of a mixed bag from OTL. On the one hand, an earlier end to the war means a. more money to work with and b. more time to start building ships to match the giants the United States and Japan are building. On the other, Germany is still out there, with a large fleet, and a great many ships were completed during WWI OTL that may not be completed here, mostly light cruisers and destroyers, which were useful in the 1930s and WWI. I do think they'll complete most of the planned light cruisers, i.e. the remaining C-class, the D-class, and more E-class, as well as the V&W-class destroyers, but the Hawkins class might be terminated in favor of a more advanced design.
There are two priorities now for construction: the next generation of capital ships to match the US and Japanese navies and replace the 12" ships, which are all reaching the end of their engine lives, and recapitalization of the trade protection fleet. The former is self-explanatory, but in the latter case all of Britain's trade protection cruisers are currently obsolescent, obsolete, or are rocking 1st-gen steam turbines that are not long from giving out. I expect Hood and all four of her sisters to be completed to Hood's revised design. The Brits need ships to counter the German Mackensen and follow-ons, which outclass the Cats and will outclass the Renowns even after re-armoring.
Germany: Germany even before the start of WWI was moving away from funding their navy to the same levels as the cost of ships escalated and expansion of the army took priority. This doesn't change after WWI with the German government saddled with enormous amounts of debt and faced with long-term occupations in former French and Russian territory.
The first priority is to complete ships ordered and/or under construction: the last two Bayerns, the Mackensen and Ersatz Yorck-class battlecruisers, and the Koln II-class light cruisers. Ships divested would be the older VTE cruisers, the predreadnoughts, and likely the VTE Helgoland and Nassau classes. This would give the Germans a formidable fleet, but afterwards their priorities are similar to that of the British: recapitalize the overseas cruiser fleet, and a new generation of battleships to match the monsters in the US and Japan.
Luckily for Germany, the new battleships are already being worked on. The L20e series should have already started, and while their armor scheme is outdated they would've been fast and powerful ships. I expect them to get the go-ahead, with the 15" series of battlecruisers likely discarded in favor of more of the fast battleships to suit Kaiser Wilhelm's ideas about merging the dreadnought and the battlecruiser. The FK series should cover the need for fleet cruisers, which means a new colonial cruiser to replace the old - and mostly sunk - armored cruisers is the main priority.
United States: At this time the United States Navy is proceeding with their 1916 program, without the OTL delays caused by their participation in WWI. That's 10 battleships, 6 battlecruisers, 10 light cruisers, and 50 destroyers. At a stroke, the US Navy is giving themselves a battle fleet practically unmatched. The Colorados will all be laid down 1917, followed by the South Dakotas after some post-Jutland tweaks in 1918/1919, and then the redesigned Lexingtons 1919/1920. The entire program will be done by 1924.
Without these delays the US Navy can also get the march on follow-on designs, such as plans for 18" battleships, improved destroyers, and a veritable flood of 8" scout cruisers. This is almost certainly causing severe indigestion in British and German naval intelligence.
Japan: Japan should be proceeding as OTL, as they have no reason to deviate. This is still worrying, given Nagato and Mutsu are already under construction.
France/Russia: Irrevocably fucked.
Italy: Italy is in an interesting position. The Carraciolo-class battleships are still under construction, and with an earlier end to the war and a much less dire financial situation they could be completed, but even moreso than what's being worked on in Britain and Germany they represent rather outdated naval thinking. The Italians are also desperately short of modern cruisers and aren't getting any war prizes as they did OTL. Be interesting to see what they do.
Austria: All their naval shipyards were ceded to Italy. They're done as a naval power for the foreseeable future.
Very good analysis- that'll come in handy down the line! Thanks for your input.
You could say so, yes.
On US politics--I could see the end of the war in 1916 either helping or hurting Wilson in his re-election bid. On one hand, he can say he successfully kept the US out of war. On the other hand, that issue was the very reason why many traditionally Republican-leaning voters in the Midwest were wary of voting for Hughes (assuming he's still the Republican nominee), and the election may become more domestically-focused with the biggest foreign policy issue being Mexico.
A cultural consequence of this is that without the suppression of German publications and schools that took place in 1917-18, there will be a large German-speaking community in the Plains states for much longer, in the same way that we have large Spanish-speaking communities in the Southwest, Florida, and New York today IOTL.
A cultural consequence of this is that without the suppression of German publications and schools that took place in 1917-18, there will be a large German-speaking community in the Plains states for much longer, in the same way that we have large Spanish-speaking communities in the Southwest, Florida, and New York today IOTL.
All very good assessments. I'm working on the 1916 election chapter... should be up in a few.
Yup.
On naval programs, even for the USA, money is going to be an issue when it comes to building their battle fleets. A fleet second to none sounds good on paper, but once actual numbers are presented to Congress, expect them to start balking at the price tags on the navy's planned battle wagons.
They haven't.
Such a project won't see the light of day for years if not decades, unfortunately. Britain is about to go into a dark patch, and imperial projects like that won't be feasible.
True, but at least part of the money which went to Britain in 1917-18 and was spent on WWI IOTL will be freed up for things such as a bigger navy ITTL.
In contrast, Germany's Berlin-Baghdad Railway is more feasible, if only because Germany is finding it easier to pay its debts using reparations from France and Russia. That, and the Berlin-Baghdad Railway is as useful as it is a prestige project, between securing and supporting their Ottoman ally, and developing the oil fields of Mesopotamia.
This is true. But Congress will still make a fuss, regardless.