Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)

[NHBL]

Britain can't have both problems at once. Either their collateral is still just that collateral, like a mortage on your house, where you've not defaulted yet and so don't have to worry about the bank seizing it. Or they have defaulted and their collateral is gone. But then they don't have to worry about making payments any more.
Either way, given that all the loans were secured with collateral the American Banks don't have any reason to worry. Now American Bankers themselves are probably going to have popularity problems with doing business in Britain in the future, as they'll be slandered as War Profiteers, German Catspaws, plus some choice anti-semitic slurs regardless of whether they seize the collateral or Britain has to make big re-payments while suffering under a very bad post-war economy. But the banks should not have to worry about loosing their money.

If the value of the collateral has gone down hill, the banks can loose their money. As an extreme example, if guano islands were the collateral, their value is now negligible. Ot factories that are now obsolescent, or things like that.
Then there's pure malice as a possibility as well, I can see an American bank taking possession of factory complex Y, and the British promptly ripping up the rails that supply it, since the line is "uneconomical," and "accidentally" sinking a few rock filled barges in any relevant canals.
Even without malice, the value can decline.

...SNIP...
Well, the Imperatritsa Mariya Class weren't really the best dreadnoughts in the world, and it's a toss-up whether or not they're worse than the Gangut Class in use by the Baltic Fleet.

The Russian dreadnoughts aren't great ships, but the 12" guns were quite good, if small by 1917 standards. Scrap the ships, and mount the turrets where they will do the most good, or even build railroad guns. As coast defense guns, they can insure that nothing less than dreadnoughts can survive within reach, and even they will have a hard time.
(A coast defense monitor or two could be a good use for some of them, depending on the need, or even a river monitor.)

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Chapter Fourteen- Japan: The Victorious Entente Nation?​

"As Germany has her place in the sun, so too is the sun of Nippon rising. We will never stop until we shine as bright as the Germans do now!"
-Japanese Prime Minister Terauchi Masatake, 1 August 1917.

"People of Vietnam! Our nation has suffered for nearly forty years under the cruel, exploitative rule of French imperialists and their lackeys, but no more! Now that the hated French have been put in their place, the Vietnamese nation has stood up once more! I thank our Japanese friends for this and call upon my people to act in a spirit of brotherhood with our Japanese allies..."
-Vietnamese Emperor Ham Nghi, shortly after the expulsion of the French.

"Without a doubt, the seeds of the Great Pacific War were sewn with the Japanese takeover of Indochina in the summer of 1917. Once Japanese expansionists did it once, they assumed they could repeat the formula time and again to become the greatest power in the Pacific. Millions died because of it."
-Irish military historian Robert FitzGerald, The Great War Of Civilisation Volume Three: Aftermath (1998)

Japanese participation in the Great War had been minimal and, to be frank, entirely self-interested. Under the terms of a 1902 treaty with Britain, Tokyo declared war on Germany in the first weeks of conflict. Japan’s first objective was to seize the German concession of Qingdao in China and some isolated Pacific islands- this was, the government swore up and down, to help the Entente, and not to further Japanese imperialist expansion. Aside from forcing a few isolated German garrisons to surrender, the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) saw no combat in the Great War. As for the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN), its pressure helped to track down German ships on the open seas, and its contribution of destroyers to the Mediterranean enabled Tokyo to say that it was helping its British ally. However, geographical distance gave the Japanese a luxury no one, not even Britain, enjoyed: the ability to put as much or as little into the war as it chose. Since Japanese participation in the war after the first few months was passive, it suffered less than a thousand casualties altogether. Thus, as events tilted in Berlin’s favour, Japan was in an ideal position: its contributions to the war effort were enough that no one could accuse it of slacking, yet its casualties numbered well under a thousand and war barely affected the economy.

As France began cracking at Verdun, Tokyo’s strategists came to believe that the war would soon be over, and that the status quo in the Pacific would soon change. While they doubted that the German presence would increase, they weren’t fools, and it was plain that Britain and France, with fresh problems closer to home, wouldn’t be able to afford prewar levels of strength in the Pacific. It was time, they said, to take notice of how exposed Indochina was, and to think about a separate white peace. Ironically, these hawks who were talking about land-grabs in Asia were the same ones who had pressed for war with Germany two years ago; not that hypocrisy didn’t make their position wrong. Idle Army units underwent training in Taiwan just in case the empire needed them close to home, while Tokyo recalled naval units to home waters. However, not much changed throughout the summer of 1916. If Japan wanted to plunge its dagger into the Entente’s back, there wasn’t much more it could do to prepare. While France and Britain were being humbled at Dresden, Japan’s attention was fixed on a cabinet crisis. Count Terauchi Masatake ascended to the prime ministership after several weeks of governmental confusion, and he clearly intended to do things differently. Unlike his aged predecessor, Terauchi had a bold vision and agreed with the hawks in his cabinet. He also enjoyed the simultaneous positions of Minister of Finance and Foreign Minister, enabling him to evade bureaucracy and cautious colleagues.

Count Terauchi Masatake, the man who expanded Japanese power into Indochina.

Several weeks after the Treaty of Dresden, the Japanese prime minister went to Bangkok to confer with Siamese foreign minister Devawongse Varoprakar. For decades, Britain and France had maintained much-hated spheres of influence in the ancient kingdom. The Siamese government made the same calculations as the Japanese, and they guessed that if it came to a crisis, they could force the French to withdraw. When Varoprakar told Prime Minister Terauchi (1) this, the latter man agreed. He promised to covertly send IJA officers and weapons to Bangkok to assist the Siamese should they force the French out. He returned twice throughout December, culminating with the signing of the Japanese-Siamese Pact on Christmas Day. The treaty committed Japan to upholding “Siamese territorial integrity, including attempts by foreign states to exploit Siamese territory irrespective of whether it is under the de jure control of the Bangkok Government.” What this meant in real terms was that not only would Japan seek to eliminate Anglo-French influence in Siam, they would also nod approvingly if Siam pressed a claim on ethnic Siamese regions in French Indochina. Siamese ministers asked British and French envoys to “take home leave”, while forcing their pro-Entente counterparts to clean out their desks. Throughout the winter of 1916-17, French merchants faced a great deal of hostility in their section of Siam- ground glass in the bread, rocks chucked through their stores, petty acts of harassment like that. Paris was too consumed with chaos to send a proper diplomatic response to Bangkok, and thus the campaign continued. Across the border, the ethnic Siamese living in French Cambodia also became restless, with a popular jingle “send them off to the Kaiser’s table, hurrah, hurrah/ So us brothers, we can live together, hurrah, hurrah” spreading. And all the while, Japan looked on approvingly from afar.

While Tokyo had been strengthening its relations with Bangkok, it had also taken the obvious step of signing a white peace with the Central Powers. It was on the other end of the world from Berlin and occupied no German territory save for a few isolated islands. Kaiser Wilhelm’s bluster about the “yellow peril” notwithstanding, few Germans viewed Japan as a serious competitor. To reclaim its Pacific territories, Berlin would’ve had to send the High Seas Fleet- which, granted, could’ve defeated the IJN in open battle- thousands of miles away, which would eliminate its naval presence in home waters. With Mittelafrika and Eastern Europe under their boot, Germany no longer needed to worry about a few tiny colonies. Thus, Germany recieved Japan’s peace feelers warmly enough and dispatched Foreign Minister Zimmermann to neutral Portuguese Macau. (2) Zimmermann was astute enough to realise that Germany had enough on its plate as it was, and that its power-projecting capacity in the Pacific was dead. Thus, the Pacific islands had no real value anymore. The Kaiser pitched a fit about the latter, but in the afterglow of Dresden, he calmed down quickly. Qingdao was a bigger issue, as it was Germany’s only gate to the riches of China. Without a treaty port, German merchants would be at a disadvantage. Yet, the Japanese occupied the city and refused to give it up. However, both sides reached a compromise whereby German merchants would be granted all of their prewar rights- and Japanese citizenship if they desired it- and German ships could dock freely at the port in exchange for Japan possessing it. Despite this, German economic activity in Shandong decreased by some eighty-five percent between the end of the Great War and the start of the Pacific War. At any rate, Japan had made peace with Germany, clearing the way for further expansion.

As with the rest of France’s colonial empire, the Indochinese contribution to the Great War had been immense. While few Indochinese had seen combat (3), the French had conscripted thousands into labour units. These men had spent the war clearing bodies away from battlefields and lugging up supplies. Just like in the metropole, taxes skyrocketed and women put in long hours in the factories. Yet, requests for more autonomy had gone unanswered, and people were grumbling. The French had lorded it over them for decades and made them sacrifice for a losing, hopeless war- after all, your average Vietnamese or Laotian had never heard of Alsace-Lorraine or Verdun. Now, with the far-off master defeated, many in Indochina- Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians- saw a common goal in front of them: independence. Following the Armistice of 23 May, violence spread across Indochina, with attacks on Army barracks and such increasing. Given that colonies elsewhere were also experiencing the same unrest, and that the French Army was in revolt, Paris had few troops to spare for Indochina. Thus, the few Frenchmen in the remote colony spent the summer of 1916 patrolling the jungle for bandits, constantly worried about their families back home, their living standards dipping. Many really didn’t give a monkey’s about this godforsaken corner of the world In Saigon, nationalist leaders whispered about the possibility of a coup d’état against the puppet emperor Khai Dinh. The largest outbreak of violence came in spring 1917, and the Vietnamese government refers to it today as Revolutionary Martyr’s Day. On 30 March 1917, an inmate in the Thai Nguyen Penitentiary by the name of Luong Ngoc Quyen assassinated the commander in charge of the brigade in the prison, and some 150 guards joined the rebellion, liberating the inmates and bringing the town of Thai Nguyen under the control of the insurgents. The French pulled in troops from the countryside, but that only fanned the flames, as bandits now had less opposition than ever. Although the French crushed Quyen’s revolt within ten days, that came at a price: bandits had free rein. Bombs were thrown in Hanoi and Saigon, and no Frenchman dared venture into the countryside. Most ethnic Vietnamese troops turned their guns on their erstwhile French comrades, roughly halving the number of troops available to defend the status quo. By the middle of April, the low-level insurgency which had been ongoing for nearly a year had blossomed into a full-scale revolt across Vietnam. Emperor Khai Dinh proved himself a French puppet by issuing an edict on the eighteenth calling for “lawful obedience to the laws of my empire and fealty to our French allies.” A terrorist incinerated him three days later. The fall of the emperor left the four-year-old Bao Dai as Emperor of Vietnam; in practice, the ceremonial throne was vacant. Jean-François dit Eugène Charles, Governor-General of French Indochina (5) saw the writing on the wall and sent a frantic message to France: either send four good-quality, reliable French divisions to Indochina immediately, or expect the colony to be lost within a year. Since it’s doubtful that four spare good-quality, reliable French divisions actually existed at that moment, no response was forthcoming; dit Eugène Charles would have to make bricks without straw. On the tenth of May, a fresh wrench was thrown into the works: news came that the Kingdom of Siam had formally declared war on France. Siamese troops were storming over the border, and no one seemed to be in a position to stop them.

A map showing the annexations following the Franco-Siamese War of 1917

On the morning of 10 May, Siamese forces announced the “nationalisation” of the French sphere of influence in their country. Those Frenchmen who hadn’t fled were subject to arrest, and the Siamese government nationalised all French assets. That was just the tip of the iceberg, however, as the several-thousand-strong Siamese Royal Army crossed the border into French Cambodia. Given that Siam was a small Asian nation browbeaten by colonialists, its army was small and backwards, and the French Army of 1914 (never mind the Germans!) would have massacred it. However, French Indochina in the spring of 1917 was chaotic enough that the Siamese stood a real chance. Similarly, the Siamese Navy was scarcely existent, but the Treaty of Dresden had mandated that France hand over her ships in the region; thus, the two sides were on naval parity. Siamese troops advanced into Cambodia, trapping French troops between themselves and armed Cambodian nationalists. Ironically, the latter were just as hostile to the Siamese as the French were, as Cambodians had no desire for their rivals to the west to dominate them. This was warfare as it had been before the Great War: there were scarcely any machine-guns, only a handful of aeroplanes, and both sides frequently used cavalry in combat! Anachronisms did little to save the French, however, and by the end of the month the Siamese had penetrated deep into Cambodia and made gains on the Laotian frontier. However, on 1 June, a Cambodian envoy crossed the lines with a white flag. The Kingdom of Cambodia had just declared independence from France and received Japanese recognition; he wanted to be taken to Bangkok to ensure that no fighting ensued between the two sovereign nations.

For Japan, everything was going perfectly. With French rule in Indochina dissolving- thanks to Japanese money and guns, of course- and their new Siamese ally making strides, it was high time to step in and ensure that everything turned out the way it was supposed to. Three IJA divisions and a group of Japanese “envoys” arrived in rebel-held Phnom Penh on the 28th, offering recognition if Prince Sisowath Monivong would take the throne- his father having fled during rioting in the city. The prince agreed, and on the 29th proclaimed an end to the French protectorate, calling on Cambodians everywhere to “stand up fearlessly for our native land!” He also thanked the Japanese for their help in the revolt and invited them to stay in his country as “our honoured, invited guests”- this may have had something to do with the IJA soldiers standing next to him, bayonets fixed, as he gave his speech. Japan then stepped in to establish the Siamese-Cambodian border, which awarded Bangkok all the territory it had taken from the French. Much anger and several acrimonious border disputes would result from this, but the Japanese stamped each out before they got started.

Japanese artillerymen shelling French-held Saigon before moving in.

A similar situation played out in Vietnam, where the crumbling French colonial regime tried desperately to cling on, rebel groups shared a common end but diverging means (and were more than a little hostile to one another), and Emperor Bao Dai sat in the palace playing with his toys. Teraguchi stepped into this mess to capitalise on French weakness. On 5 June, residents of Haiphong and Vung Tau awoke to find Japanese warships off the coast. IJA men disembarked and occupied the towns. In places, the Vietnamese welcomed the Japanese as potential liberators; elsewhere the locals treated them as just another set of hostile invaders. Well-equipped, well-disciplined IJA forces pushed through to Saigon in four days. The colonial capital remained under tenacious French control, although the population was teetering on the edge of revolt. Caught between a rock and a hard place, Jean-François dit Eugène Charles ordered a surrender to protect French lives. The governor-general and his aides were captured, later to be ransomed for a hefty sum. IJA troops burst into the royal palace, breaking into Bao Dai’s bedchamber during an arithmetic lesson. They shot the poor teacher dead, and the terrified, wailing prince leapt onto his bed. However, the soldiers weren’t about to execute the child ruler. Instead, he was taken to another room in the palace where a small, moustached man was waiting. This was Ham Nghi, who had ruled as a child puppet for a few months nearly thirty years ago before being exiled to Algeria. As Indochina slowly descended into chaos, Ham Nghi had slipped back home and contacted the Japanese. If they would help restore him to the throne, he promised to align his regime to them. The Japanese soldiers made a terrified Bao Dai sign an act of abdication (being only four, he didn’t really understand what he was doing), and hailed Ham Nghi as Emperor of Dai Nam. The next day, the new emperor issued a proclamation to his people, calling on them to accept his rule and act “in a spirit of brotherhood with our Japanese allies.” He formally invited the Japanese to maintain a presence in Vietnam, and Japanese troops went into action against the French holdouts. By the middle of June, the Empire of Vietnam was a reasonably stable state, but one thoroughly under the Japanese heel. To the west, the Laotian king agreed to accept Japanese “protection”, as he saw that France could no longer defend him, and that it was better to swim with the tide than against it.

Ham Nghi, Emperor of Vietnam (1917-1943)

Japan had pulled off a brilliant coup de main. In just a few months, it had seized one of France’s most prized colonies with barely a peep from the international community. To be sure, the French now loathed the Japanese almost as much as they hated the Germans, but with the Kaiser standing on France’s neck and the French state starting to unravel, Paris’ opinion counted for nothing. Tokyo had intimidated Britain, yet with Germany on the rise, London couldn’t afford to ditch the alliance with Japan. The best part was that the three new Indochinese nations were fully independent on paper, with global international recognition (6)- thus, Japan could claim credit for fostering “national self-determination.” This enabled the Japanese to portray themselves as having liberated the peoples of Indochina, and some in India and Indonesia began to think Tokyo represented their interests. Thus, both Japanese grand strategy and the Japanese propaganda machine profited from the seizure of Indochina. As Prime Minister Terauchi Masatake put it in his speech to the Indochinese ambassadors to Tokyo: “As Germany has her place in the sun, so too is the sun of Nippon rising. We will never stop until we shine as bright as the Germans do now!”

Comments?

1. Japanese names are written “backwards” to a Westerner, no?
2. ITTL, Portugal sees which way the wind’s blowing and refrains from joining the Entente.
3. IOTL, almost all the Vietnamese troops who fought did so in 1917 and 1918.
4. This happened in August IOTL, but the generally weaker state of French colonial rule (and the need for a coherently flowing chapter on my part) moves it up a little.
5. ITTL, he keeps his job for longer, since Paris figures it wouldn’t be wise to have a leadership transition at the same moment the colony is undergoing turmoil. Fun fact: he was appointed on the day of the Armistice- 23 May.
6. Except for France, which dragged its feet until the mid-1920s.

 

[Nivek]

A general election will be en route in mid-1917, however, the Kaiser's power and prestige have only increased with victory in the war. SPD agitation will happen, and the Kaiser will be forced to make good on the liberal promises he made in OTL 1914... this will have the Conservative Junkers hopping mad.

A general election will be en route in mid-1917, however, the Kaiser's power and prestige have only increased with victory in the war. SPD agitation will happen, and the Kaiser will be forced to make good on the liberal promises he made in OTL 1914... this will have the Conservative Junkers hopping mad.

This is 1917 with an easy win, not 1918 with a hard win, if anything SPD could perform worse now with more democratic voting...but 1922-23...might be another story

 

[Nelson Mikeson]

This is 1917 with an easy win, not 1918 with a hard win, if anything SPD could perform worse now with more democratic voting...but 1922-23...might be another story

Not necessarily. SPD and republicanism are not intertwined, a lot of pre-1918 Social-Democrats were supporters of the country and the Kaiser. Also, Ebert took all precautionary measures as to not appear radical, he supported the war and approved war funds for "the good of the country". Now, he'll fight for his part of the deal. 1917 could be a Britain 1945, rememember, the SPD was growing in vote share every election, now they have a big soldier population returning home, who saw the horrors of modern war and want better job opportunities and welfare protections. Furthermore, there is no Churchill-like war figure to compete against, but a Kaiser above politics, so the SPD has all advantages: big pre-war results, strong party organizations, support for the country during it's biggest national challenge, offering perspectives for the large soldier share of the population, also women sufragettes, able leadership and, if necessary, bargaining potential with Zentrum.
Of course, there is still an invisible elephant: The Kaiser is not subordinated to the Parliament and could appoint whoever he wants as Chancellor. Now, if the Kaiser continous to ignore popular demands for change, there could be strong civil unrest, which surely could be answered with brutal force, even martial law, but I see the Kaiser as smart enough or scared enough by the September Revolution, to reach a compromise with the SPD, so as not to compromise his and his dinasty's future.

 

[Samuel Von Straßburg]

snip
Behold, my lacklustre mapping skills!
This map reflects the events of chapter 14, which should be posted later today.

Why are Latvia and Lithuania one country in this? Is it a mistake or are the two combined?

 

[CV12Hornet]

Japan had pulled off a brilliant coup de main. In just a few months, it had seized one of France’s most prized colonies with barely a peep from the international community. To be sure, the French now loathed the Japanese almost as much as they hated the Germans, but with the Kaiser standing on France’s neck and the French state starting to unravel, Paris’ opinion counted for nothing. Tokyo had intimidated Britain, yet with Germany on the rise, London couldn’t afford to ditch the alliance with Japan. The best part was that the three new Indochinese nations were fully independent on paper, with global international recognition (6)- thus, Japan could claim credit for fostering “national self-determination.” This enabled the Japanese to portray themselves as having liberated the peoples of Indochina, and some in India and Indonesia began to think Tokyo represented their interests. Thus, both Japanese grand strategy and the Japanese propaganda machine profited from the seizure of Indochina. As Prime Minister Terauchi Masatake put it in his speech to the Indochinese ambassadors to Tokyo: “As Germany has her place in the sun, so too is the sun of Nippon rising. We will never stop until we shine as bright as the Germans do now!”

Oh ho, now that's going to make for some interesting diplomatic wrangling over the next several years...

Japanese names are written “backwards” to a Westerner, no?

Yes, family name first, personal name second.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Why are Latvia and Lithuania one country in this? Is it a mistake or are the two combined?

You're looking at the Grand Duchy of Kurland and Lithuania. (known as Lithuania to the world)
The East will get an update before too long.

 

[Marco Rivignani]

France Is Really Screwed Up!

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

France Is Really Screwed Up!

You could say so...

 

[Ficboy]

You could say so...

Action Francaise or another group is going to take over the country. It might not be Nazi Germany but it would look like OTL's Falangist Spain/Francoist Spain. Plus Integralism would be a close substitute of Fascism and its offshoots.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

I wonder if monarchism will gain popularity in France?

 

[Ficboy]

I wonder if monarchism will gain popularity in France?

Probably. Then again there could be a faction that prefers a Napoleon-style imperial dictatorship or even a Fascist-esque state.

 

[Not Henry G.]

Wow, I hadn't even thought of Japan. They basically pulled off all their TTL WW2 goals, and with barely a loss. My guess is they become a juggernaut and the Nazi equivalent of this world (as in, a very powerful military state that takes years to finally put down). I'm so looking forward to it!

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Assuming Japan still goes down the same path it did IOTL seems rather contrived, TBH. That assumes they get humiliated and stepped on in exactly the same way as they were by the West over the course of the 20s. To start with, the Equality Clause fiasco that laid the foundation of Japan's bitterness towards the West never happened here. Also, the Great Powers have recognized Japanese control of the Qingdao Leased Territory, and with America never having entered the war, the spat over the Pacific Islands either never happens or gets treated as fait accompli with only token American displeasure.

 

[Ficboy]

Wow, I hadn't even thought of Japan. They basically pulled off all their TTL WW2 goals, and with barely a loss. My guess is they become a juggernaut and the Nazi equivalent of this world (as in, a very powerful military state that takes years to finally put down). I'm so looking forward to it!

Considering Japan's attempts to erase the cultures of Korea and Taiwan, they will most likely become the Nazi Germany of this world.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Considering Japan's attempts to erase the cultures of Korea and Taiwan, they will most likely become the Nazi Germany of this world.

Not unique, and let's be honest about it. The Canadians did the same with the Native Americans in their country, and even continued it well past WWII IOTL. There's also the Russification programs of the Russian Empire against its minorities. So why is Japan singled out for trying to obliterate native cultures?

I'm not saying it's right, because it isn't, but saying TTL Japan is the Nazi Germany of TTL simply because of that seems like a case of double standards to me.

 

[Ficboy]

Not unique, and let's be honest about it. The Canadians did the same with the Native Americans in their country, and even continued it well past WWII IOTL. There's also the Russification programs of the Russian Empire against its minorities. So why is Japan singled out for trying to obliterate native cultures?

I'm not saying it's right, because it isn't, but saying TTL Japan is the Nazi Germany of TTL simply because of that seems like a case of double standards to me.

Well in the sense of its military expansion and conquest. To be fair, there were other countries that did the same thing just not to the same genocidal extent that Japan later did in OTL aside from some exceptions.

 

[Boneheaded_Bookkeeper]

As the OP hinted at, Japan taking over French Indochina (Entente colony) and the German pacific plus Qingdao (Central Power colony) and getting away with it like a bank robber is going to make their future victory disease very severe indeed. From our viewpoint it makes total sense, but try to see this from the POV of a reporter in this period. How the heck did the Japanese manage that piece of annexation mastery and diplomatic wangling!? From the point of view of a nation builder what Japan just accomplished was pure art.

It's going to probably bite them in the butt years from now, but still quite impressive all things considering.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

I won't deny that Japan could easily get victory disease. But, unless Japan gets diplomatically-isolated over the following decades the way it was IOTL, there's still no reason at present they go down the same path as OTL. Especially since at present, they have everything they want, instead of the Italy-like mutilated victory they perceived they got at WWI and its aftermath.

It'll take a lot more worldbuilding to make Japan be as bad as it was IOTL. Otherwise, at present, saying Japan goes on to launch a bloodthirsty rampage across Asia only comes off as contrived.

 

[Marco Rivignani]

I won't deny that Japan could easily get victory disease. But, unless Japan gets diplomatically-isolated over the following decades the way it was IOTL, there's still no reason at present they go down the same path as OTL. Especially since at present, they have everything they want, instead of the Italy-like mutilated victory they perceived they got at WWI and its aftermath.

It'll take a lot more worldbuilding to make Japan be as bad as it was IOTL. Otherwise, at present, saying Japan goes on to launch a bloodthirsty rampage across Asia only comes off as contrived.

Yeah I pretty much agree with you but I think that they would have at least occupied Manchuria. The Japanese lacked resources and literally space to put it's growing population(I find it quiet ironic that in OTL Japan started the Pacific War for oil while they unknowingly had occupied the Daqing Oil Field, the largest oil field in China). However I have the suspect that if Manchuria is invaded sooner or later a rogue general will launch a Marco Polo Bridge-like Incident and than a full fledged Second Chinese Civil War. IMO the real problem is factionalsim within the Japanese Armed Forces and the weakness of the Japanese Central Government.