Know what by fighting France they could get Algeria Madagascar Chad more of Savoy and Provence.
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Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
- Start date
Know what by fighting France they could get Algeria Madagascar Chad more of Savoy and Provence.
Chapter 18- Hungary Resists
Chapter Eighteen- Hungary Resists
"If we could break through in the war, with all the Russians from Poland to Siberia aligned against us, then why- why?- is this state having so much trouble quelling a few jumped-up provincials?"
-Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf, on the evening of 4 August 1917
"It would appear that our cause is stronger than anticipated. Why, if the Austrians- for that is all they are, none of this "Danubia" nonsense- continue with such efforts, we will be the only ones standing before long."
-Hungarian general Karl Tersztyánszky von Nádas
Everything was falling apart for Emperor Karl. He had inherited an empire weakened in the Great War and given it new life. Reform seemed to be on the horizon, with the Kingdom of Croatia-Slavonia's equal recognition a first step to a reorganisation of the empire.
And then the Hungarians broke away.
Emperor Karl was a peaceful man with no appetite for fighting. In an unprecedented act of charity, he had even offered the rebels a status quo antebellum peace the moment he heard of the revolt. But once the Hungarians had rejected his good-faith offer, Karl was prepared to fight. Time was of the essence, as if the Hungarians embarrassed imperial arms repeatedly, they would make the whole reform project look weak and foolish. The fact that the empire could only use its own forces was also a constraint- no Great Power needed another’s help to put down a revolt. With all these factors in mind, Emperor Karl met with his military supremo Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf (1) on 14 July to hammer out a war strategy.
The empire enjoyed several military advantages over the Hungarians. For a start, it possessed a massive numerical superiority. Demobilisation had of course cut the immediate army size, but with the war less than a year finished, the state could rapidly recall men and send them to fight. Additionally, the imperial garrisons in Serbia and Poland, who had been under arms since 1914, were valuable assets. Emperor Karl and his advisers rushed them to the front; conscripts took their places. Out of some 7.8 million men in November 1916, approximately a quarter of them were Hungarian, while the empire needed at least a quarter million to hold down Serbia and occupy the Kingdom of Poland. Thus, after several months of mobilisation, Danubia could expect to have over five million men at its disposal. Had the civil war come a year later, the empire would’ve fully integrated its military- all the different kingdoms would have had their own units composed entirely of men of their own ethnicity. As it stood, the empire would have to make do with its disorganised, albeit large and experienced, army. By contrast, the Hungarian rebels could count on fewer than two million men once fully mobilised- a step which would take time. The Honved- veteran reservists- were being rapidly called to the colours, but turning them into proper soldiers would take time.
The first week of the Austro-Hungarian Civil War passed inconclusively. Secession had come too rapidly for many to prepare; thus, both sides had to mobilise- a time-consuming process. Skirmishes broke out all across the long front between border guards, but no land changed hands yet. It was around this time that an interesting linguistic shift took place. The empire's official name was now the "Austro-Hungaro-Croat-Slavonic Empire", or the "Triple Monarchy of Austria-Hungary-Croatia-Slavonia" (Croatia-Slavonia being one territorial unit). However, in addition to being unwieldy, this description wasn't particularly accurate. With Hungary in revolt, it seemed wrong to speak of it in the same breath as Austria, yet "Austria-Croatia" failed to stick. Instead, a new name for the Habsburg state spread throughout the summer of 1917: Danubia. The name encompassed all of the empire's holdings while also being helpfully ambiguous on the status of rebel Hungary. Although it would take time to spread, "Danubia" stuck, and hereafter refers to the Habsburg holdings.
A bigger concern for the Danubians was the sizeable Hungarian minority in the other imperial kingdoms. These peoples had been restless ever since the Croatian crisis began in June. Rioting had gripped southern Slovakia and western Transylvania for weeks, and once Hungary declared its secession, the ethnic Hungarians in these areas decided to go with them. Thus, the Imperial Army’s first taste of combat came in a dozen small towns whose people sympathised with the rebels. Heavy fighting took place in the streets between Hungarian insurgents and local militias; although the empire soon restored its rule, there was much loss of life and the towns would remain under military rule for the rest of the war. Another potential issue was newly conquered Serbia: with the bulk of the empire’s resources focussed on Hungary, the veteran garrison there would have to be sent north. The occupied Serbs were not blind to the fact that the tough, grizzled veterans who’d ruled them for nearly two years were being replaced by fresh-faced conscripts barely old enough to run a razor across their cheeks. This led to fears in Vienna that the coming war would see a Serbian revolt. Not much could be done, though, and it was generally felt that even if imperial forces were temporarily ejected, they could restore their position after the war.
Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf, the Danubian commander-in-chief, had not had a glorious time in the Great War. His attempts to conquer Serbia and save Galicia had failed, each requiring German troops to stabilise him. Before the bullets flew in Sarajevo, he had dreamt of preventative wars against Italy and Serbia to unite the empire and bring the tension in Europe to a head; ironically, the man who had shot these proposals down was Franz Ferdinand. Conrad genuinely believed himself to be a second Alexander, and the constant setbacks and perceived slights he encountered throughout his career had left him stifled and frustrated. Now, as the most seasoned officer in Danubia, he didn’t take well to a Czech or Pole talking to him as his equal. All this to say: Conrad’s judgement, never perfect to begin with, would be clouded by a desire to prove himself at last in the coming war.
The first substantial action of the Danubian Civil War came on 22 July. Conrad von Hotzendorf, acutely aware of Emperor Karl’s desire for a rapid victory, planned a quick operation. He was going to march on Budapest from the north, capture the rebel leadership, and end the war in one fell swoop! Leaving only a small force in Galicia, Conrad moved the bulk of the empire’s German troops into Slovakia. However, the overbearing Feldmarschall started off on the wrong foot by attempting to dominate his fellow commanders. No matter what the Constitution said, Conrad declared, as the most decorated hero in the empire- and a Viennese- he ought to have precedence. After all, Emperor Karl was of German blood- no? Thus, on 22 July some twelve divisions attacked on a front from Kosice to Gyor; a distance of some 270 kilometres. (2)
The Hungarians had anticipated this move. With Budapest only a short distance from the Slovak border, it made sense for the attack to come from the north, and most of the rebel state’s forces were concentrated in that direction. General Karl Tersztyánszky von Nádas had been outfitted with most of the Hungarian Army’s supply of machine-guns, as well as the first seven Great War divisions to be recalled. Nadas was determined to forge an impenetrable northern line, where the imperial forces could bleed themselves white trying to break through. After a three-hour artillery barrage, Conrad sent his Austrian troops forward; the Slovaks and Czechs present held their forces back. Such caution was well-placed, as the men of the Kaiserliche Österreichs Armee were mauled by Hungarian machine-gun fire. Soldiers who had fought side-by-side alongside the Hungarians in Gorlice-Tarnow and the Oststorm of summer 1916 were cut down by their erstwhile comrades. Only late in the day did the commanders in the rear town of Martin agree to send forth their forces. Combat continued indecisively until sundown forced a halt. The first day’s fighting had proved quite different from the Western Front stalemate- there were not enough men for a firm deadlock, while the length of the active front made it inevitable that some maneuver would occur. In this, conditions mirrored the Imperial Army’s service on the wide-open Eastern Front, and many commanders in the imminent Russian Civil War would study the campaign.
As the second day dawned, Danubia’s men clambered out of their foxholes, having got too little sleep with bullets and artillery keeping them up, and went forth once more. In keeping with his belief that Budapest was the main strategic objective, Conrad insisted on concentrating the bulk of his resources on the centre of the front. A breakthrough was possible, he insisted, but only if the men and junior officers were aggressive enough. However, two things hampered his goal. For a start, the forces of the different kingdoms- two divisions of Lodomerians and one from Galicia had arrived last night- were hesitant to be melted down by the machine-guns all to please some overbearing general. The second issue hampering Conrad was his own pride. While Oskar von Hutier had been charging to glory in Estonia, Conrad’s men had been tramping through the mud of western Ukraine. He would never admit that the Germans were ahead of him by aping their breakthrough tactics. This irresponsibility consigned thousands of imperial troops to their deaths, but the stubborn Viennese warhorse wouldn’t change his ways. Thus, with the fresh Poles and Ukrainians at the tip of the attack, Conrad ordered a push towards the tiny Hungarian hamlet of Dobra Niva. The town held out for four days- far longer than expected by either side- before Czech cavalrymen worked their way around the Hungarian flank.
Anachronistic infantry tactics had made the battle far harder than it had to be; anachronistic cavalry sweeps had won the day. History can be an ironic business at times.
Danubian infantry in newly occupied Dobra Niva. Note the new, "German-style" helmets introduced shortly before the outbreak of the conflict.
Dobra Niva now flew the Danubian flag once more, and the town’s Slovak men eagerly donned the colours. And the empire had gained what? A few hundred people, some quaint country houses, and some first-rate goulash and schnapps. Another pokey hamlet lay a few miles south of this town, then another, then another… It would be a long road to Budapest. This did not deter Conrad, who began drafting orders for a march southwards. The imperial commander envisioned columns of troops marching down country roads, with cavalry playing their part. Subjugating Hungary would be a glorious old-school campaign of the sort the Great War had never provided. As his men trooped south down the road in their columns, only their rifles and uniforms distinguished them from soldiers of fifty years ago. Appearances, however, were misleading. At noon on 1 August, three days after the fall of Dobra Niva, a buzzing noise came above the imperial columns. Hansa-Debreczen (3) bombers swooped down, dropping their payloads on imperial troops. Men scattered every which way across the road, some leaping into the dirt while others tried ineffectually to shoot the bloody things down themselves. Panicked horses sent their riders flying and galloped off. Danubia’s air force was small, and fighters couldn’t scramble in time to shoot the bombers down; the Hungarian air raiders landed without a scratch behind their lines.
The aerial assault had delayed the imperial march south, which didn’t resume until the next day. Conrad was taking no chances, and he telephoned the General Staff in Vienna- he wanted as many fighters as possible sent to support his men. Despite the terror from the sky, the first day of the month had seen little real fighting in this sector, but that was expected to change today, the second. A little before one PM, the imperial troops came across a fork in the road. Both paths led to small hamlets: Babina to the west and Sasa to the east. The army brought artillery up to soften up the defences of both while the army set up camp at the fork; aeroplanes buzzed above just in case. By midafternoon, the preliminary barrage was underway and everyone knew which village their unit was to assault. The past two days had seen a dearth of Hungarians on the ground, and the imperial commanders assumed that they were concentrating in force to defend the two villages; thus, the coming battle was expected to be bloody. The advance commenced at four PM, artillery shells whizzing over the men’s heads. After the barrage ceased at five, the imperial troops gave a rousing battle-cry and threw themselves at the Hungarian defenders…
A map showing the area where Conrad blundered.
...who weren’t there.
The men assaulting Babina and Sasa were all Great War veterans. They knew what combat looked like, even combat against poorly equipped Russians who lacked rifles and ammunition. But even in the sweeping advance of summer 1916, men stopped bullets, trod on landmines, and got tangled up in barbed wire. The deafening sweeps of machine-gun fire which had characterised the last war were missing here. All the imperial troops faced at these two hamlets was some Honved militiamen with repeating rifles, who rapidly retreated. Conrad had expected that he would need the night to bring up supplies and reinforcements, and that he would have to make the main effort for these two hamlets on the third. Instead, Danubian soldiers occupied the two villages before nightfall, having taken only minimal casualties. The village was of course deserted, with only a few old ladies and young children- all Slovaks- left, as the Hungarian inhabitants had either been conscripted by the rebel army or fled. There was little of value in the village; retreating rebels had taken everything that wasn’t bolted down, but that had been anticipated. At eight PM, incredulous commanders sent runners back to the camp at the fork in the road with the incredible news: what had been an objective for two or three days of fighting had fallen in a few hours. When Conrad found out, he uncorked a bottle of champagne before going off to telephone his sovereign. He was covering himself with glory and making the rebels flee; this war was going splendid! Why, it seemed too good to be true.
As it turned out, it was.
Conrad was eager to follow up on this victory, and identified three towns worth taking: Krupina on the western road, Pliesovce to the east, and Bzovská Lehôtka, located in between the roads. The latter could serve as a useful supply and command centre, as it was connected to both roads. Cavalrymen were sent on reconnaissance, but they encountered resistance from local Hungarian farmers. These men might be too old or too young to fight, but they knew what to do with a hunting rifle, and they certainly hampered the Army’s ability to scout. Aeroplanes went up, always in formations to ward off their Hungarian opposite numbers, and a picture gradually became clear. Bzovská Lehôtka and Pliešovce, being closer to the front, were being fortified by the Hungarians, but Krupina appeared more lightly defended. That made sense to the imperial commanders; the Hungarians had offered only token resistance to the north so as to fortify these more substantial towns. Not wanting to lose the momentum of his advance by getting bogged down in thick Hungarian defences, Conrad decided to focuss on Krupina.
At daybreak on 4 August, two infantry divisions advanced down the road to Krupina. Their goal was less to capture the village than to size up the defenders and buy time for a larger force to come down the winding country road. A few Hungarian guerillas waited in the woods, but once they saw almost 20,000 men coming their way, they quickly disappeared. By nine AM, advance units were trading shots with the garrison of Krupina, while two FK M.5 field guns (4) were being assembled.
And then the cavalry showed up.
The Hungarian commander in the sector, General von Nádas, wasn’t stupid. He knew that the empire would always have more men and resources than Hungary, and even with Great War technology giving him the defender’s advantage, he couldn’t afford to fight toe-to-toe. Therefore, he had to outwit Conrad. (5) Abandoning Babina and Sasa, tiny hamlets not worth spilling blood over, let von Nádas conserve his manpower. If Conrad wanted to penetrate deep into Hungarian territory, von Nádas would let him, dangling the prospect of victory before his eyes- a savvier commander might’ve grown suspicious at the fact that in the year 1917, his armies had advanced fifteen kilometres in a week. As it was, although the two divisions “bunched up” to provide their attack on Krupina with more force, they left small rearguards behind. And at 9:30 AM, the rearguard reported itself under attack from Hungarian cavalry pouring out of the woods. With the bulk of the two divisions engaged in combat with Krupina’s defenders, pulling back reinforcements to help the rearguard wouldn’t be easy; the men naturally feared being trapped a la Cannae. However, the projected assault on the main fighting units didn’t come. Instead, having polished off the Danubian rearguard, the Hungarian cavalry unit galloped north, back to Babina. When they arrived a little before eleven, they found the village defended by only an understrength infantry division organising for combat. The Hungarians charged, mercilessly swinging their sabres and blasting rounds from their carbines. Although the surprised defenders did their best to resist, the Hungarians ruthlessly exploited their initiative, and quickly neutralised the defending machine-guns. By noon, Babina was back in Hungarian hands.
Conrad had looked forward to an old-fashioned, glorious war unlike the modernist slaughter of the trenches. He ought to have been more careful what he wished for.
For their part, the two divisions thrown against Krupina failed in their task. This wasn’t their fault as Conrad had intended them to serve as only the vanguard, but in the face of stiff Hungarian resistance, battalions were melted into companies, and companies into platoons. By the mid-afternoon, the survivors had fled, and made their way through the fields back to safe ground.
Conrad was rapidly alerted that things had gone wrong. He was livid to see Babina back in rebel hands, and ordered an immediate counterattack, throwing a mixture of Czech, Slovak, and Lodomerian units into Babina at four PM. Ironically, the town fell almost as easily the second time as the first; the cavalrymen had a hard time defending on horseback, yet they weren’t used to fighting on foot, and lacked machine-guns or barbed wire. As the sun drenched the Hungarian sky in pink and orange, bringing a close to 4 August, the weary imperial troops settled down to night watch in the newly reconquered town. To the south, the Hungarians set about fortifying the road to Krupina under the cover of darkness, for the inevitable next assault.
The Danubian supremo was left supremely frustrated. He had a war of mobility and numerical superiority; he was in his element in a way he hadn’t been during the Great War. The Hungarians were supposed to roll over and die, not repulse him like the bloody Serbs had done! If Emperor Karl chose this moment to visit the front… That night, Conrad came up with a fresh plan. He was going to throw everything he could get at the Hungarians, and he would do it at such a short range that there would be no room for treachery (as he would refer to the cavalry ambush in his memoirs). Transferring his attention to the eastern road, he was going to storm Pliesovce and show these rebels that when their cavalry tricks were taken out of the equation, the Imperial Army couldn’t be beat. Conrad conferred with his co-commanders, hoping for their men to reinforce him. The Czech and Slovak generals were none too keen to see their men thrown forth in another of Conrad’s wild offensives, and they argued for two solid days. Finally, Conrad threatened to telephone the Emperor, saying that he could take Pliesovce were it not for the recalcitrance of the Czech and Slovak commanders. Against their better judgement, the generals agreed. While the brass hats bickered, the men rested in Dobra Niva, and reinforcements and supplies were brought up. Two days later- 6 October- Conrad issued the final orders. The Danubian guns opened fire at five AM, and six divisions went over the top an hour later.
Hungarian troops tending to a wounded comrade during the successful defence of Pliesovce. One of the strangest things about the Danubian Civil War is that, since the Hungarians seceded so rapidly, their men often wore extremely similar uniforms to those of the Danubians.
The Hungarians were not blind to the massing Danubian forces. As soon as the thrust towards Krupina was blunted, it became clear that Conrad would turn his guns on a closer target. The previous several days had seen Hungarian reinforcements arrive at the town, complete with everything needed for a Great War-style defence. Civilians were evacuated, barbed wire strung up, and trenches dug. As the Danubian divisions charged across No-Man’s-Land, the Hungarians greeted them with blasts of machine-gun fire. Attempts to lay down a “creeping barrage” failed miserably, as many of the gunners undershot their intended targets, killing their own men. Meanwhile, Hungarian artillery based on the hills north of rained shells down on the road, cutting imperial troops off from supply and reinforcements. Not even the use of mustard gas was sufficient to dislodge the Hungarians- the winds changed at just the wrong moment and the imperial troops ended up harming themselves instead. By midmorning, the attack had turned into a spectacular failure. Having taken heavy losses, the imperial forces retreated to Sasa. Conscious as always of the need to conserve manpower, the Hungarians did not pursue.
Conrad’s failed attack on Pliesovce brought an end to his attempts to break through in the centre of the front. In just over two weeks, his armies had advanced approximately five and a half kilometres, at the cost of some 13,000 casualties. His boorish, overbearing command style had not endeared him to his Slavic counterparts, nor to Emperor Karl. Part of the problem was that Conrad hadn’t learned his lessons from the Great War. Having spent the war on the mobile Eastern Front, fighting underequipped Russians in the wide open steppe, he genuinely believed in the validity of prewar tactics, and that fighting spirit could carry the day. His attachment to outdated means of waging war had cost many their lives.
Distressed by the failure of the campaign, Emperor Karl visited the front three days later. The devout emperor was pictured handing out medals and crucifixes to soldiers. Famously, he took off his imperial regalia and volunteered at a field hospital for half an hour. Emperor Karl also donated two thousand krone out of his own pocket to the families of all soldiers wounded in the campaign. Another great work of mercy was performed once the emperor returned to Vienna; Conrad was sacked as Chief of the Austrian General Staff, and given the post of military attaché to Switzerland. He would not return to the fatherland for another seven years, and died, embittered, in 1925. (6) His replacement was Colonel-General Arthur Arz von Straussenburg. The emperor, a devout Catholic, was appalled at the use of mustard gas (7), famously declaring that defeat tasted sweeter than satanic smoke. Indeed, the imperial forces never used gas for the rest of the war, even when the Hungarians got their hands on some (which wasn't often; their attempts to set up a homegrown nitrates industry weren't too successful).
On the Hungarian side of the trenches, General von Nádas was in a triumphant mood. Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, he had turned back the imperial invaders, at a cost of only a few kilometres of territory relatively light casualties. If this campaign could be replicated, the Hungarian cause would be greatly strengthened. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mihaly Karolyi in Budapest had a grand plan. He was going to strike at the very heart of Danubia and take something which would force Karl to grant Hungarian independence…
No one could have guessed it at the time, but the United Empire of the Danube was about to be shaken to its roots, and it would soon look to many that the ancient state might not live to see 1918...
Comments?
- Arguably the greatest asset the Hungarians possessed
- The internal border between Hungary and Slovakia is somewhat further to the north than OTL’s in this area; I’m basing this off of the map drawn by SamuelVonStrassburg (threadmark 23)
- OTL’s Hansa-Brandenburg GI’s, the Dual Monarchy’s main WWI bomber. The Hungarians obviously rename the models they get their hands on.
- By no means an artillery expert, but judging by Wikipedia, this gun seems light/mobile enough for such a task- no?
- Admittedly, not the most challenging task in the world.
- Analogous to Karl’s giving Conrad the boot once taking office IOTL.
- Karl banned the stuff around this time IOTL.
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Even if Hungary gains independence, isn't it completely surrounded? Let's see how well they will do in a decade. They will be left behind and bekomme nothing more than a primitive, undeveloped 'third world' country
You mention Karoly taking something, and I feel like it's going to be something symbolic.
Like maybe the Holy Hungarian Crown - snatching that would A. be a huge propaganda victory, inspiring many to flock to the Hungarian cause, and B. give the state an extra dash of legitimacy.
Either that or they grab a random Hapsburg and plonk him on the throne.
Or maybe both.
Heh.
Tell that to the Hungarians!
Right now, they all think independence will be perfect, and there will be no problems whatsoever!
all, empire is gonna be shook to the roots ? The hungarians pick Franz Ferdinands boy to be their king. Maybe
Thanks! The Hungarians aren't done yet, not by a long shot...
A possibility.
Ficboy
Banned
If Hungary's attempted secession from Danubia does succeed it will likely inspire groups similar to the Black Hand in non-German parts of the country to do something very similar regardless of the outcome.
Hungary could win this fight if they're willing to sacrifice a lot of men, but their long term prospects are grim.
Maybe I'm just ignorant of the situation, but I'm failing to see a happy ending for Hungary? This reminds me of threads I've seen where people discuss the long term prospects of the CSA if they had won the American Civil War. I always was told that the confederate states would have been an unstable mess of a nation that would have collapsed in a few decades at best. There was just too many factors working against them.
The situation is not the same for this civil war, but there's definitely some similarities from my POV. Let's just perform a mental exercise and assume that Hungary succeeds in getting its independence. Let's also assume that the rest of Danubia survives and stands firm as a nation. Hungary is now landlocked and shares a border with a very angry Danubian Empire. Their army is only a fraction of the size of the Danubians and their industrial capabilities are nothing to write home about. They will badly need allies because Danubia will obviously want a rematch. Who will they turn to?
Definitely not the German Empire. The Kaiserreich will want to maintain good relations with Austria and courting their wayward kingdom will be a big no-no. I can see Danubia quickly sending a lobby group to Berlin to convince Germany to not diplomatically recognize Hungary for many years to come. What about Bulgaria or Romania? They are certainly options, but not great ones - they all have their own problems and disagreements and do not possess powerful armies. I don't think Italy is ballsy enough to start a war with Danubia so soon after the Weltkrieg. The only other option is Russia...which will be too preoccupied in the immediate future to offer any assistance. Hungary is completely alone and will be forced to fend for itself. After many years of army reforms, buying the latest weaponry, and careful planning, the Danubians will utterly crush the Hungarians in their second war in all probability.
If I were Hungary, mere independence is not good enough. For the sake of national survival, Danubia itself must be crushed. They're the number one threat to the kingdom's free existence. Consider OTL - Hungary got its independence when the Austria-Hungarian Empire totally collapsed and no one nearby had the strength or inclination to do battle against the Maygars. Hungary has to defeat Danubia so conclusively that the entire empire becomes a farce and disintegrates on its own. I'm just not sure they have the military capabilities to accomplish that. Another thing to consider is Germany. If Danubia and Hungary become locked in a battle to the death, I surmise that Germany will prefer to send aid to Vienna rather than Budapest. Germany craves stability in Europe at the moment and having Danubia collapse will cause all kinds of problems in the Balkans that I suspect Germany would want to avoid.
Even if Hungary wins their freedom, I give them 15-20 years of existence before they get reannexed - assuming the overall geopolitical situation stays roughly the same. Just my prediction.
Wow- an excellent analysis! I'm actually a little surprised anything I wrote got that kind of commentary.... that's what keeps us writers going.
The points you raise are excellent ones; nothing to disagree with there.
Hungary has a chance to win the war, but not the peace.
Edit: And yes, the ACW was something of an inspiration for this...
Ficboy
Banned
If there is an Integralist/Fascist bloc in Place in the Sun it would likely be comprised of France, Spain, Wallonia and Romania. Italy isn't going to betray Germany and Danubia anytime soon and Portugal is a mixed bag regarding what might happen next especially regarding its long-standing alliance with Britain.Wow- an excellent analysis! I'm actually a little surprised anything I wrote got that kind of commentary.... that's what keeps us writers going.
The points you raise are excellent ones; nothing to disagree with there.
Hungary has a chance to win the war, but not the peace.
Edit: And yes, the ACW was something of an inspiration for this...
Likely, yes.
No Italian in 1917 is seriously considering the possibility of betraying Germany or Danubia. However, I can reveal that they will use Vienna's weakness to strengthen their position in the Balkans....
Should a conflict between France and Germany erupt (which, if it takes place ITTL- it may well not- won't be for a while), Italian voices will be more divided.
Ficboy
Banned
I think so. Spain is still going to face the same problems that led to the rise of Franco's Falangists since it stayed neutral in the conflict like OTL. Portugal could still be overthrown by the Estado Novo and break off from Britain depending on what TTL's 1920s looks like. Serbia is also another potential addition to the alliance since Austria-Hungary/Danubia declared war on them and took some of their territory. Wallonia would likely be led by Degrelle's Rexists as a puppet of Integralist France and the same applies to Flanders if they're lucky enough in World War II.
An Integralist France led by Charles Maurras would be TTL's version of Fascist Italy (1922-1943) and Nazi Germany (1933-1945) having elements of the former and the latter such as a dictatorship posing as a monarchy, colonies in Africa, state-sanctioned anti-Semitism and emerging from a previous regime that lost World War I. Their hyper-Catholicism would be derived from the short-lived Nazi Positive Christianity if it were much more successful. We might even be hearing jokes of somebody being like Maurras similar to Hitler and while there wouldn't necessarily be a French version of the Holocaust they would likely send any Jews from the country and occupied territory to Africa to work as slaves kind of like a mixture of Ostarbeiters and the Madagascar Plan.
As for Danubia, Hungary is in open rebellion against the nation and if it does successfully secede as I said its going to inspire similar attempts which could lead to a Yugoslavia-esque collapse in the worst case scenario given ethnic tensions.
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Falangism or an analogue will arise ITTL, yes... I haven't got all the kinks ironed out but I've got some broad strokes
Romania joined the Central Powers ITTL. It currently controls Bessarabia and enjoys positive relations with Germany. Right now, some in Bucharest are coveting Transylvania...
I'm not sure what to do with Portugal just yet... but I have a few ideas.
Belgium remains under King Albert's rule, but is a German puppet, controlling French Flanders but deprived of everything east of the Meuse. Berlin would react viciously if the Rexists or a similar group came to power.
Ficboy
Banned
Integralist France could become as reviled as Nazi Germany especially if they decided to get rid of Jews, left-wing political opponents and other "undesirable" targets. France after a hypothetical World War II in your timeline wouldn't be split up like Germany and probably a democratic government takes control likely as TTL's Fifth Republic. Hungary could also become Integralist if it does not get Transylvania.
As for Russia, if the Communists still win then it would spark a Red Scare that could propel the rise of Integralism aka the Fascism of Place in the Sun to prominence as a antidote against the ideology. Jews will still get collectively blamed for it since some of the Bolsheviks and especially the Mensheviks were Jewish but only in an ethnic sense and not a religious sense not to mention all the Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Latvians, Armenians and other groups that make up the bulk of the CPSU. If the Whites still win then it would either become a Kerensky-style republic or remain a Tsardom albeit modernized and made more efficient.