Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)

[avernite]

I like the update, but I think you could've devoted a bit more words to the setup - how come this or that area is Tsarist or Republican? The general countryside or Moscow are clear enough, but why are Tver and Rzhev Tsarist? No doubt for good reasons, but they're not very spelled out.

And, but that's rightly a next topic, how is everyone else reacting? The Germans/Brits might not want to intervene, but supplying a pile of machine guns and ammunition rusting away in armories would not be amiss.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

I like the update, but I think you could've devoted a bit more words to the setup - how come this or that area is Tsarist or Republican? The general countryside or Moscow are clear enough, but why are Tver and Rzhev Tsarist? No doubt for good reasons, but they're not very spelled out.

And, but that's rightly a next topic, how is everyone else reacting? The Germans/Brits might not want to intervene, but supplying a pile of machine guns and ammunition rusting away in armories would not be amiss.

That's a fair criticism. I actually have something in the old test thread which should clarify this-- I'll add it in later.

Oh yes, everyone has a favoured side in the RCW; both sides will recieve some foreign backing

 

[Sphenodon]

I for one continue to root for the Republicans. The last thing the country and its people need is a vengeful neo-absolutist regime in the vein of Alexander III, and if people such as Denikin are being given stations of high command I have little doubt that the state would brutalize its own citizenry. Seriously, a trawl through his part in the RCW pogroms should be enough to turn one's gut on its own.

Kerensky might be corrupt and a nascent strongman, but frankly everyone in a position of power in the Russian Civil War is (except maybe the leaders of the Green Armies, which while not present yet ITTL might still surface as a byproduct of peasant resistance to atrocities by the big players) and he at least has some ideological commitment to the rights and freedoms of the people. Moreover, I feel that even in the event of a blowout victory on the Republicans' part, his somewhat shaky alliance with the Marxists will prevent an effective centralization of power under himself and a controlled opposition. The initial years/decades are liable to be unsteady, but the presence of meaningful power blocs in competition coupled with a young democratic apparatus bode to help strengthen traditions of political participation among the citizenry rather than let them stagnate as might happen otherwise.

Overall, the situation among the Republicans reminds me a lot of the OTL dual authority, except with a clear and present danger from the Russian monarchists rather than any external opponent. It would be interesting to see this sort of arrangement fuse into a stable system rather than centrifugally tear itself apart - which, given the unifying monarchist threat and (what I presume to be) the increased factionalism among the Bolsheviks, is something I think might be possible.

 

[Gen.Jurten]

I for one continue to root for the Republicans. The last thing the country and its people need is a vengeful neo-absolutist regime in the vein of Alexander III, and if people such as Denikin are being given stations of high command I have little doubt that the state would brutalize its own citizenry. Seriously, a trawl through his part in the RCW pogroms should be enough to turn one's gut on its own.

Kerensky might be corrupt and a nascent strongman, but frankly everyone in a position of power in the Russian Civil War is (except maybe the leaders of the Green Armies, which while not present yet ITTL might still surface as a byproduct of peasant resistance to atrocities by the big players) and he at least has some ideological commitment to the rights and freedoms of the people. Moreover, I feel that even in the event of a blowout victory on the Republicans' part, his somewhat shaky alliance with the Marxists will prevent an effective centralization of power under himself and a controlled opposition. The initial years/decades are liable to be unsteady, but the presence of meaningful power blocs in competition coupled with a young democratic apparatus bode to help strengthen traditions of political participation among the citizenry rather than let them stagnate as might happen otherwise.

Overall, the situation among the Republicans reminds me a lot of the OTL dual authority, except with a clear and present danger from the Russian monarchists rather than any external opponent. It would be interesting to see this sort of arrangement fuse into a stable system rather than centrifugally tear itself apart - which, given the unifying monarchist threat and (what I presume to be) the increased factionalism among the Bolsheviks, is something I think might be possible.

Im more of cynically predicting a Republican victory that ends with Kornilov taking power forming alt!Fascist regime

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

That's a fair criticism. I actually have something in the old test thread which should clarify this-- I'll add it in later.

Oh yes, everyone has a favoured side in the RCW; both sides will recieve some foreign backing

I suspect - again based from your drafts in the test thread - that the Japanese will be the main backers of the Tsarists, at least until the Germans figure out how to get supplies to them, what with Leningrad, Murmansk, and Sevastopol under republican control. And while Arkhangelsk is under Tsarist control, it's only accessible for six months every year.

Spoiler

Contrast to Vladivostok, which is ice-free all year-round. Hey, maybe the Germans would supply the weapons the Japanese would then ship to the Tsarists at Vladivostok?

 

[wietze]

I suspect - again based from your drafts in the test thread - that the Japanese will be the main backers of the Tsarists, at least until the Germans figure out how to get supplies to them, what with Leningrad Petrograd/ St Petersburg, Murmansk, and Sevastopol under republican control. And while Arkhangelsk is under Tsarist control, it's only accessible for six months every year.

Spoiler

Contrast to Vladivostok, which is ice-free all year-round. Hey, maybe the Germans would supply the weapons the Japanese would then ship to the Tsarists at Vladivostok?

FTFY

and why the germans stereotypical siding with the japanese? the japanese after all still have a treaty with the british.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

FTFY

and why the germans stereotypical siding with the japanese? the japanese after all still have a treaty with the british.

The treaty isn't worth the paper it's on. Even IOTL, the Japanese predicted as early as 1916 that come 1922, the British probably wouldn't renew their alliance, and even actively sounded out Imperial Russia as Japan's new ally. And the Russians were actually receptive, with both Foreign Minister Sazanov and even Tsar Nicholas II expressing interest in a similar arrangement with Japan over China as they already had in Manchuria. Despite their loss in 1905, the Russians by 1916 had largely reconciled with the Japanese, and saw them as a useful ally to secure their eastern frontier so they could focus on Europe, maybe even Central Asia.

As for the British, as early as 1905, the alliance with Japan was already under question, especially by the Australians. Then there's Japan's intervention in Indochina ITTL, which has previously been mentioned as alarming Britain, with only the fear of Germany snapping Japan up keeping the British from dropping Japan then and there. The question thus becomes if Britain will continue to value the alliance come 1922, and which the Dominions - Canada and Australia, especially - will have influence over.

I suspect that much like IOTL, Canada and Australia will both pressure Britain to end the alliance with Japan, which will likely align with Germany, assuming the Tsarists lose the Russian Civil War. If the Tsarists win, then assuming things went as per OTL, then Japan will align with Russia. Worst-case scenario for Britain, a resurgent Russia aligns with Germany and Japan, but that doesn't seem likely here, given the continued existence of the Ottoman Empire (what with Russian ambitions of reclaiming Tsargrad after so long).

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

Will the Germans give arms to the Tsarists?

 

[Knightmare]

Will the Germans give arms to the Tsarists?

Odds are they'll sell arms to anyone who shows up with cash in hand. Red, Green, White.....

Prolongs the conflict, drains cash from the area allowing German investments to swarm in afterwards, and hey, unloads possibly surplus weapons they don't need.

 

[naraht]

Odds are they'll sell arms to anyone who shows up with cash in hand. Red, Green, White.....

Prolongs the conflict, drains cash from the area allowing German investments to swarm in afterwards, and hey, unloads possibly surplus weapons they don't need.

Can we get some other colors this time: Blue, Orange, Purple.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Can we get some other colors this time: Blue, Orange, Purple.

What's the school mascot?

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Purple could be the Monarchists, don’t know about blue or orange though.

 

[longtimelurker]

Blue can be the Bourgeois-liberals (backed by Anglo-Americans, allies of republicans and communists), Purple are monarchists (completely ineffectual), and Orange are - as per la wik - some combination of Christian socialists and hardcore reactionaries.

I'm disappointed that the Germans don't decide to not repeat Valmy, and send a heavily armed division or so to completely crush the revolutionaries. My reading of the Russian civil war was that is was an incredibly close-run thing, where even a small amount of trained solders, used with the desire to win, could have turned the tide one way or another.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Blue can be the Bourgeois-liberals (backed by Anglo-Americans, allies of republicans and communists), Purple are monarchists (completely ineffectual), and Orange are - as per la wik - some combination of Christian socialists and hardcore reactionaries.

I'm disappointed that the Germans don't decide to not repeat Valmy, and send a heavily armed division or so to completely crush the revolutionaries. My reading of the Russian civil war was that is was an incredibly close-run thing, where even a small amount of trained solders, used with the desire to win, could have turned the tide one way or another.

We have our flag, ladies+gents. I now need to figure out a way to insert this into the story....
With regards to German intervention, the war's only just begun: time will tell....

 

[longtimelurker]

We have our flag, ladies+gents. I now need to figure out a way to insert this into the story....

Thank you, I help when I can

With regards to German intervention, the war's only just begun: time will tell....

WRT to German intervention, there are bits in the RCW, where leaders talk about how "just a few more disciplined soldiers, a bit more discipline, a bit more artillery" could have turned the tide of the war. The Anglo-Americans "intervened" on the "side of the whites", but the case is easily made that they made no real effort. Both because of war exhaustion, and because the Anglo-Americans had sympathizers for the communists at the highest ranks of government - a massive part of Anglo-American intellectual and political class thought that Marxism was the future. On the other hand, the German political class (both left and right) considered the communist side to be literally the devil (as well, their new puppets in eastern Europe would rather die than see an internationalist - read as, Russian Expansionist - government take power).

The most likely future in any German WW1 victory involves High Command sending a mix of German (and a good bit of Polish/Baltic/Finnish), division to Russia, armed to the teeth (with all of the heavy weapons that Russian Civil War Armies don't have), formed by veterans (who need the work, given the effects of demobilization on the labor force) trained in infiltration tactics. That overstrength division smacks down the communists/republicans with trivial ease, and we get a weak, unstable Russian Empire.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

On the other hand, Germany just intervened in the Danube, and there's also Communist France right next door to consider (and which just halted all war reparations payments). I don't think Germany can afford to intervene in Russia right now, at least, not directly.

 

[Emperor Pedro II]

WRT to German intervention, there are bits in the RCW, where leaders talk about how "just a few more disciplined soldiers, a bit more discipline, a bit more artillery" could have turned the tide of the war. The Anglo-Americans "intervened" on the "side of the whites", but the case is easily made that they made no real effort. Both because of war exhaustion, and because the Anglo-Americans had sympathizers for the communists at the highest ranks of government - a massive part of Anglo-American intellectual and political class thought that Marxism was the future. On the other hand, the German political class (both left and right) considered the communist side to be literally the devil (as well, their new puppets in eastern Europe would rather die than see an internationalist - read as, Russian Expansionist - government take power).

The most likely future in any German WW1 victory involves High Command sending a mix of German (and a good bit of Polish/Baltic/Finnish), division to Russia, armed to the teeth (with all of the heavy weapons that Russian Civil War Armies don't have), formed by veterans (who need the work, given the effects of demobilization on the labor force) trained in infiltration tactics. That overstrength division smacks down the communists/republicans with trivial ease, and we get a weak, unstable Russian Empire.

I feel like the reason that we don't see German intervention in the Russian Civil War in very many Central Powers victory timelines is moreso for out-of-universe narrative reasons for which the expansiveness of an intervention is used as a shield. After all, even when losing WW1, they still found enough time, money, and will to intervene in the (admittedly smaller) Finnish Civil War. A victory on the other hand, while obviously taxing, would still leave the Germans with more than enough energy to intervene, something they would be far more willing to do than the Entente OTL, given their hatred of the communists. The question would rather be whether the Germans themselves realize that it would not actually take much to push their preferred side to victory. The problem German intervention presents from a narrative standpoint is that, if you want a plausible scenario for a WW2, you don't want the Germans to be too overpowered in reaping the fruits of their WW1 victory, so as to make a rematch unfeasable, as already simply swapping the roles of France and Germany in our history doesn't really work too well due to France's weaker demographics.

 

[Gabingston]

"God damn it, how hard can this be? Two-thirds of the Motherland against the Central Volga! We will win in weeks!"

 

[Gabingston]

Regardless of who wins, the future does not look bright for Mother Russia. On one hand, the Republican regime would be unstable, with a high chance of either falling to Communism (we know how that'd end up from OTL) or a military dictatorship. However, an autocratic and reactionary Czarist state wouldn't be rainbows and sunshine either.

 

[wietze]

Blue can be the Bourgeois-liberals (backed by Anglo-Americans, allies of republicans and communists),

remember that currently the british & americans aren't the best of friends