I don't see a long-term future for independent Aquitaine. Balkanization requires the locals to want to stay Balkanized.
Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
- Start date
AmericaForever
Banned
Not really.
We can see from the Soviet example that they were successfully able to extract tribute for decades from its conquered states with minimal uprisings. The American occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq have been done with a couple thousand troops, and could have easily turned a profit had America been willing to exploit the resources of the conquered states. The Chinese have been sitting on the Tibetians, and the Israelis upon the Palestinians, both for decades with no end in sight.
It is simply a matter of political will to do so, which can be gathered by actually acquiring resources or obvious strategic utility from conquered lands.
The war is always the hard part compared to occupation, if the occupier is willing to treat the occupation as a continuation of said war.
The former two of these had at least some degree of benevolence involved in their planning (combatting Islamic militants and stabilizing/establishing democratic government), which in a prolonged German occupation of France would most certainly lack. The two are antagonist nations to one another and have been so for centuries; even setting up a collaborator government and garrisoning it under some auspices of it being "for the French people's own good" would only work in a very select number of circumstances and require vastly greater discretion on part of the Germans than has been displayed by their current garrison, which has been rather unabashedly serving as the arms behind extricating Northern France's wealth for all it is worth. Granted, such circumstances may happen (the teased 1930s phenomenon might imply some really horrible government takes over, bad enough to make Francophones outside France lose their loyalty), but it would require the Germans to not bungle their half of the deal when the time comes in order to make it stable.
As for China and the Tibetans/Uyghurs, the issue here is a profound difference in the population and resources available to the occupational and occupied parties. Tibet and Xinjiang are both very sparsely-populated, peripheral parts of the most populous country on Earth, one with a massive wealth of resources of which only a small portion needs to be mobilized to combat insurrection by unrestive elements of those groups. France only has about half the population of a unified Germany here, but it is still one of the bigger nations in Europe physically and in population terms. That's incredibly hard to keep down, especially when Germany will also have to support its vassal and independent allies in the East while also devoting increasing amounts of resources to keeping a very large colonial empire in line (looking at the geographical monstrosity of Mittelafrika in particular).
Palestine is probably the closest analogue to what a prolonged German occupation of France would resemble, as a similar population disparity exists between the occupied and occupying nations. That said, a direct comparison is still disingenuous - a sizable number of people do not recognize Palestinian independence at all (which really isn't an option either for Germany to claim or the rest of the world to believe), Israel receives substantial diplomatic and material support from larger nations to support its geopolitical position (also not an option for Germany, which will need to support its own sphere and probably combat foreign material support for the occupied), and there is simply a far greater divide in the amount of territory involved.
Even if Germany does the "nuclear" option and deindustrializes France while stripping it of anything resembling modern military materiel, it will be absolute hell to manage by force. This will be true both for a puppet government, an artificial division, or an enforced Balkanization on ethnic lines among the French subgroups as some have proposed (specifically an independent Aquitania). Really the strongest/most reasonable course of action that I see is splitting off Brittany, moving the accepted borders further West, economically integrating the country, and working to "de-revanche" the population as a way of ending that endless feud. Modern Germany is quite different from the jingoistic entity it was in the 1910s and 1930s, and in general a smoothly integrated part of the European community of nations; it should not be impossible to do the same with France without simply breaking it.
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Not to mention that a Morgenthau Plan requires the German government's permission. Zentrum or the SPD, if in charge, are very unlikely to support partitioning.
all depends on the the behaviour of integralist france, if they misbehave enough, resistance against partitioning might be absent
Yeah, a France that goes as crazy as Nazi Germany was IOTL would probably convince Germany's civilian leaders of the need to divide France to prevent yet another war caused by French ambitions, whether out of revanche or whatnot.
Course if they go THAT crazy, it might not be all a German thing. Give Normandy-Brittany to the British to control, Aquitaine to Spain, Occitania to Italy, and only the rest to Germany.
Sure, they were. But will they be in round 2: this time it's crazytown?
Deleted member 117308
But if Britain joins round 2 on the German side, then France probably wont have power to really do something horrible in the francophone parts of Belgium (and maybe Germany).
(I am not supporting anything like this, I just want to point out, that the Author has already confirmed that something will happen in Belgium. )
(I am not supporting anything like this, I just want to point out, that the Author has already confirmed that something will happen in Belgium. )
Friendly reminder that Britain currently hates Germany's guts and the feeling is mutual. No chance of an alliance, much less getting Brittany.
Seeing as Kaiser is off fishing, thought I'd drop by to remind everyone that voting is open for the Turtledoves 
Surely you're willing to give your vote to a worthy cause?
- BNC
Surely you're willing to give your vote to a worthy cause?2021 Turtledoves - Best Early 20th Century Timeline Poll
Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers?; @Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth Of Lost Monkeys and Broken Vehicles; @Lascaris A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline; @Zulfurium Der Kampf: The Rise and Fall of the Austrian Führer; @Tanner151 The Rainbow. A World War One on...
www.alternatehistory.com
- BNC
Perhaps late but if union with Greece is an option, the Greek-Cypriots of the time are liable to vote with overwhelming majorities for it. Overwhelming as in the region of 99%. And given how they form over 80% of the population of the island...
That said a victorious Ottoman empire is liable to be coveting the east Aegean islands, they have not recognized Greek control over them, and it does have Goeben to play with. So the Greeks are certainly liable to looking to someone naval support, while they look in the market for a counter as a matter of priority. Germany I suppose would not want to complete the pending Greek orders from 1914 lest it antagonize its Ottoman allies so the Greeks are likely into Britain and the United States for ships. Possibly HMS Canada or her sister if the British want to be accommodating?
This. And of course, vote for Patton in Korea, another excellent TL also deserving of a TurtledoveSeeing as Kaiser is off fishing, thought I'd drop by to remind everyone that voting is open for the Turtledoves
2021 Turtledoves - Best Early 20th Century Timeline Poll
Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers?; @Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth Of Lost Monkeys and Broken Vehicles; @Lascaris A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline; @Zulfurium Der Kampf: The Rise and Fall of the Austrian Führer; @Tanner151 The Rainbow. A World War One on...www.alternatehistory.com
- BNC
Na i have to disagree, that’s not full brutal occupation, Germany going full Generalplan Ost would have been brutal and after that behavior from the French I have to wounder why they diden’t....I don't think so, no. I see him as managing to dodge death time and again until he dies or flees abroad... but what do you think?
Quite.
I'd say we're already at 'full brutal occupation'. Relations between the two sides are awful and look to stay that way for a long time. There are too many disgruntled Frenchmen for Germanisation en masse. As the Kaiser's fictitious quote hinted, Germany really has a mess on its hands here.
@Freshest11212 , the system won't let me quote your post for some reason. Here's my public service announcement of a few days back:
It will be a long update and hopefully worth the wait!
Yeah, I don't think that kind of resistence to the occupation is sustainable. Once the french civilians understand that each bomb planted by a saboteur means a squad of german soldiers kicking their door in and beating the sh*t out of their sons/daughters/husbands, if not worse, they'll see they are weaker party here. The war is lost and the germans can inflict much more damage on the french than the contrary.
and not just that, the more they do that the longer the occupation will last