Eh I find everything ok except the denial. Unlike the Republic of Turkey the ottoman empire tacitly acknowledged the genocide in 1919 with Osman Fuad who would.be Osman III calling it a grievous crime and a massive speck on imperial legacy. Also Yerevan won't become a majority Turkish city I believe. Plurality yes, however it would be a hodgepodge of Turkish, Farsi, Azeri, Russian, Chechen and Armenian like most of its history.
Place In the Sun: What If Italy Joined the Central Powers? (1.0)
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
- Start date
A few comment responses which I rather rudely neglected...
No need to worry about 'off-topic' questions; any and all discussion is more than welcome here.
Ah yes, China. Butterflies won't start landing until the Warlord Era but it's an open question whether or not the KMT will exist ITTL...
Thanks for all the comments- the rest of the Ottoman update should be along in a day or two...
Indeed. Perhaps he might be a bit leaner as well?
Indeed it would... but it would also be lazy writing on my part. I'll give him a more creative end, somehow...
I agree. The Netherlands have to put relations with Germany first because, well, they exist at Germany's pleasure and as OTL has shown could be crushed if Berlin decided to.
I've considered both possibilities on my own, so it will likely be one of the two.
Nope, no Volkswagen ITTL- probably, as you said, a Skoda or Opel.
No need to worry about 'off-topic' questions; any and all discussion is more than welcome here.
Ah yes, China. Butterflies won't start landing until the Warlord Era but it's an open question whether or not the KMT will exist ITTL...
I don't think my Global IX or Global X textbooks mentioned the Ottoman empire outside of "and then this thing called the Ottoman Empire lost WWI to 'MURICA and broke up and now it's called Turkey) so we're in the same boat.
Thanks for all the comments- the rest of the Ottoman update should be along in a day or two...
Since the Pashas stick around longer ITTL, I assume denialism would be the order of the day, but I'll retcon "Yerevan".
Of course, I myself am no denialist.
true enough.
In regards to the overall Ottoman Empire, the future government may deny the genocide, but I think the governments would probably acknowledge the genocide without actually acknowledging it publically. The Sultans come to play as well. Even in 1916, the Armenekan party ( an armenian autonomist but pro-Ottoman political party before 1918) sent a letter to Mehmed V asking for him to intervene and stop the genocide. Mehmed V (bless the old man) did actually try calling it a disgrace and tried to contact the party personally, however since the Imperial Family was a virtually arrested by the Pashas, he couldn't do much and Enver Pasha threatened the old man. The Sultan has a unique role in the OE besides Muslims as well. As per Mehmed II's edict, he was also the protector of Christians in the OE, and it is a part of his temporal authority. If not Mehmed V, then Mehmed VI, or Osman III would definitely intervene.
I suppose. I based TTL's genocide denial on the shenanigans the OTL Turkish regime gets up to- and surely the same exact government which did the deed would be even more inclined to lie.
the OE was actually frank and open about the atrocities it committed. It acknowleged the Vlach killings in 1828 before the international community (read: Russia) accused them of doing so, and the Rumelian Massacres of 1878 were also acknowleged pretty fast. The Hamidian Massacres were also tacitly accepted by the government.
Well, what do you know. I'll have to delve deep into retcon-land tomorrow...
It is actually one of the reasons otl the Armenians did not want Russian aid. They looked at the Russian incited Armenian-Tatar war, and according to Gabriel Hunachakian, 'at least the porte admits its faults, and is honest, rather than the Russians who incite violence and whistle away innocently'. That is why most Armenians in the OE only asked for autonomy and never went as far as separatism into Russia (well at least the majority of them).
That depends on Real Life™. I would like to take it all the way through to the 2000s or even 2020s, but will go through the end of GWII at a minimum.
Perhaps a compromise can be made here?
The Ottoman political/societal scene could be mixed on the topic of the Armenian Genocide, with the majority of the Imperial Family, liberal, and even moderate conservative elements of the empire acknowledging the genocide and condemning it (with the House of Osman even making donations to Armenian diaspora organisations and the like) while ultranationalist and ultra-conservative elements denial or praise the genocide. Ottoman academia could likeswise be split. Perhaps the quote by the sultan be instead made by an ultranationalist Turk, or if the quote still gets made by the sultan than it leads to outrage by the fore mentioned elements of the empire that acknowledge the genocide and creates major scandal for the House of Osman.
The Ottoman political/societal scene could be mixed on the topic of the Armenian Genocide, with the majority of the Imperial Family, liberal, and even moderate conservative elements of the empire acknowledging the genocide and condemning it (with the House of Osman even making donations to Armenian diaspora organisations and the like) while ultranationalist and ultra-conservative elements denial or praise the genocide. Ottoman academia could likeswise be split. Perhaps the quote by the sultan be instead made by an ultranationalist Turk, or if the quote still gets made by the sultan than it leads to outrage by the fore mentioned elements of the empire that acknowledge the genocide and creates major scandal for the House of Osman.
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Or modify the quote so the sultan acknowledges the genocide and just simply does not give a shit about it.
the Netherlands existed way before germany even existed, and that latter part is otl ww2 so cannot take that into consideration.
a fact that quite a few germans in ww2 were embarrassed that they invaded the Netherlands.
and then there is of course the fact that the dutch royal family and german nobility have been intertwined for a long time (quite a few prussians among their ancestors)
don't know where you are from but you have a few strange assumptions on the whole situation,.
edit; maybe need to remember that the dutch german border has essentially (with some minor adjustments) been the same since the 1600s
liechtenstein could have been annexed long ago, but the haven't, don't underestimate the power of diplomatic tradition
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Okay, I phrased that very badly. What I meant was that by the 20th Century, Germany could pull off an invasion of the Netherlands with ease, as we saw in OTL 1940. This would be a diplomatic disaster and destroy relations with Britain and France, but it would be possible. While the Dutch could hope for liberation, they have to realise that Germany could attack them. Even a repulsed attack would be a disaster for the Netherlands.
EDIT: From Wikipedia
Now, even if we accept that the reserves will be even larger, that still leaves the Dutch with a small army which the Imperial Germans could defeat.
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i doubt that, it would also be an internal political disaster for germany.
german unification was a political process, and NL is more or less seen as kin.
i get the feeling you don't understand how deep certain things go.
and a repulsed attack would also mean that all the logistics that flow through the river rhine to germany would be gone, and that is a effin lot.
and you make the classic mistake by projecting 1940 mindset on the ww1 era, the 1930-40s germany mindset was the result of a period of national humiliation and economic depression and a bunch of crazies.
politcally the netherlands is always on the halfway point between germany and the uk.
simply because the british & french were no less unreliable. look at it from the 1916 perspective, at that point in time Germany has never tried to invade the netherlands or try to steal land.
the british stole scores of land from the netherlands (south-africa!) and wouldn't hesitate to do so again when given the chance, ditto for france (who started the majority of wars in the previous 500 yrs).
so the netherlands is always doing a balancing act between these, just to protect its colonies.
mobilisation strength around 4-500K
it was removed the schlieffen plan for a reason, and to attack NL you still need a casus belli,
and imperial germany is not nazi germany
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a further illustration
post WW1 belgium made the demands to annex the netherlands below the rhine (quite a thank you to NL for taking care of all those belgian refugees during the war).
during the war this plan was already going around, but was seen a german propaganda (which it turned out not to be). ultimately the plan caused quite a lot of outrage, and was shelved.
also during WW1 there were several attacks on dutch territory by entente aircraft, and then there is of course the infamous blockade by the entente of not only germany but also the Neutral netherlands.
in hindsight and the belgian behaviour, it is very possible that these entente attacks were meant to push NL into the german camp, so they could occupy dutch colonies.
it just illustrates the level of hubris among the entente .
and ittl the netherlands will probably more pro-german than otl (and otl there was a dislike for the entente post ww1.
hence why i pushed for the dutch getting german new guinea, it would have been a cheap way of getting them deeper in the german camp.
and that is the whole point, imperial germany is highly unlikely to use military power against NL. putting some political pressure on them yes (although i feel that ittl they politically fairly align anyway, so wouldn't be necessary), and probably takes the shape of political bartering, the same way how deals are made in the eu.
post WW1 belgium made the demands to annex the netherlands below the rhine (quite a thank you to NL for taking care of all those belgian refugees during the war).
during the war this plan was already going around, but was seen a german propaganda (which it turned out not to be). ultimately the plan caused quite a lot of outrage, and was shelved.
also during WW1 there were several attacks on dutch territory by entente aircraft, and then there is of course the infamous blockade by the entente of not only germany but also the Neutral netherlands.
in hindsight and the belgian behaviour, it is very possible that these entente attacks were meant to push NL into the german camp, so they could occupy dutch colonies.
it just illustrates the level of hubris among the entente .
and ittl the netherlands will probably more pro-german than otl (and otl there was a dislike for the entente post ww1.
hence why i pushed for the dutch getting german new guinea, it would have been a cheap way of getting them deeper in the german camp.
and that is the whole point, imperial germany is highly unlikely to use military power against NL. putting some political pressure on them yes (although i feel that ittl they politically fairly align anyway, so wouldn't be necessary), and probably takes the shape of political bartering, the same way how deals are made in the eu.
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With the UK weaker and Germany stronger ITTL, surely it would make more sense for the Netherlands to 'pivot' closer to Berlin? After all, Germany has Finlandised Belgium (so no chance of Entente troops coming to the Netherland's rescue through there), and otherwise surrounds the country.
I don't deny that invading the Netherlands would come at a political cost for Germany- I can't see them doing it in the TL- but is it theoretically possible? Most definitely.
You are right with regards to Rhine logistics- that's something I'd not considered.
I notice you're Dutch whereas I am obviously not, so I'll back out and concede 'mea culpa' with regards to the politics- but I still maintain that a military invasion would be possible, even if it came at a political cost.
500,000? Well, if Imperial Germany was able to fight million-man Entente armies for four years on the Western Front in OTL (to say nothing of the Eastern Front), then they should be able to beat half a million Dutch.
Since the PoD of this TL is in 1915, the Schlieffen Plan failed as OTL, and I don't deny that had the Germans included the Netherlands in their attack in autumn 1914 it would've gone poorly. However, I'm talking about an independent war against the Netherlands after TTL's WWI. And as I mentioned above, I can't see Germany doing this for political reasons- even a weakened UK would happily jump into the fight to keep the Low Countries neutral (which has been a keystone of British policy on the Continent for centuries).
However, all I am saying is that if in TTL's 1917, 1918, etc, an ASB makes the German regime go batshit crazy and say "let's invade the Netherlands", they could pull it off. This won't happen because things just don't work that way, or as you said, 'i get the feeling you don't understand how deep certain things go.'
The only way a Dutch-German war could happen in Place In the Sun is if it's part of a wider war involving the UK, France, etc, and I don't plan to replicate Fall Gelb ITTL, thus making a Dutch-German war even less likely.
Really? Belgium made that demand? Huh.
You aren't wrong with regards to the Netherlands being more pro-German, which brings me back to my original point: they're closer to a stronger Germany than a weaker Britain and France (which has treated them poorly.) The most likely thing as I see it would be the Netherlands ITTL adopting a neutral, albiet somewhat pro-German, foreign policy.
yeah one of the more surreal moments post ww1
so pretty much otl politics then.
although i do think at certain things more cooperation with the britsh and americans (in the colonies in the east, due to the percieved japanese threat)
it will be more issue based than a consistent policy though