PLA WI

[La Rouge Beret]

In 1949 the People's LIberation Army threatended to invade Tonkin in pursuit of the fleeing Nationalist forces if the French soldiers did not disarm the Nationalists.

What if the PLA invaded northern Vietnam... how does the world respond and do the PLA leave?

 

[sharlin]

The PLA did invade northern vietnam, just much later.

 

[YLi]

The Korean War starts in Vietnam this time I suppose. Either that or it becomes much, much harder for the French to hold onto Vietnam ITTL as China gets directly involved in the violence.

I'm not sure what would happen in Korea. The US might grab all of it if China is occupied elsewhere, although such a thing wouldn't be all that bad in the long run since the Sino-Soviet split occurred for reasons largely unrelated to Korean War.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

From everything that I have read the French knew that they could not defeat the PLA. They did not have the men or the material with which to do so... would the UN intervene to enable a colonial power to retain its grip. Somehow I don't think so...

So perhaps we have an earlier divided Vietnam? I wonder how this impacts in Korea as well.

 

[YLi]

I think at this point in time, Vietnam becomes a fully united nation earlier. The only problem is that the Vietnamese don't exactly like the Chinese and might try to get Russia more heavily involved, which might turn the Chinese against the Vietnamese as per OTL.

 

[tchizek]

I think at this point in time, Vietnam becomes a fully united nation earlier. The only problem is that the Vietnamese don't exactly like the Chinese and might try to get Russia more heavily involved, which might turn the Chinese against the Vietnamese as per OTL.

Um in 1949 the Vietnamese might very well have gotten the US involved, this was still before they were very tied into the Russians. There were US and British special forces that worked with them during WWII against the Japanese. If the Chinese Communists invade you could very well see the US pressure the French to take a walk out of Vietnam in return for the Vietnamese (all of them) working with the US, British and French against the Chinese Communists. Ala the Korean war early. This could be very ugly since it is likely it would trip off the Korean war itself early when the North Koreans saw that the US was distracted in Vietnam.

 

[YLi]

Um in 1949 the Vietnamese might very well have gotten the US involved, this was still before they were very tied into the Russians. There were US and British special forces that worked with them during WWII against the Japanese. If the Chinese Communists invade you could very well see the US pressure the French to take a walk out of Vietnam in return for the Vietnamese (all of them) working with the US, British and French against the Chinese Communists. Ala the Korean war early. This could be very ugly since it is likely it would trip off the Korean war itself early when the North Koreans saw that the US was distracted in Vietnam.

Oh, no doubt. I'm not sure what's going to happen though, other than things getting horribly messy and violent. If all of the Vietnamese were against the Chinese invasion, then China would likely get the boot from Vietnam since it's tricky to maintain supply lines through jungles filled with hostiles. Not sure what would happen in Korea. Maybe someone else can answer it.

 

[tchizek]

Oh, no doubt. I'm not sure what's going to happen though, other than things getting horribly messy and violent. If all of the Vietnamese were against the Chinese invasion, then China would likely get the boot from Vietnam since it's tricky to maintain supply lines through jungles filled with hostiles. Not sure what would happen in Korea. Maybe someone else can answer it.

Well since the US is in the middle of its post WWII draw down but also in the middle of the "we have the bomb so we are bigger and badder than everyone else" stage. I can see the Chinese Communists making very good progress while the Vietnamese negotiate among themselves, with the French, the US, the British and the Chinese Nationalists (who they don't like very much either). I could see a 5 way dog fight breaking (Northern Vietnamese vs Southern Vietnamese vs French vs ChiCom vs ChiNat) out to start with until everyone except the ChiComs sees that if they don't fight together they loose. Plus the Vietnamese and the French are going to be screaming for US and British (and UN) help, the US China Lobby is going to be pressuring to help the ChiNats and MacArthur in Japan is going to be itching to take a whack at the ChiComs.

When the US sends troops to help in Vietnam it will probably come from the forces that are currently in Korea. Which moves us to, Korea. One trigger for the war in Korea was the withdrawal of US troops in June of 1949, moving more troops to Vietnam may move Kim Il-sung's since the US will look distracted by another conflict. Plus with the way the US ground troops performed at the start of the Korean war the US will look incompetent. So you could very will have Korea kicking off in March or April - probably the earliest the North could reasonably be ready, rather than June. Since the earliest things could kick off would be September/October 1949 I don't see the US being involved before December.

This all hinges on the French and Southern Vietnamese being reasonable and the ChiComs being dumb so it is very, very unlikely. The French were at their most unreasonable during this period, and were encouraging the leadership (corrupt venial leadership) of the South to also be unreasonable. The ChiComs were well on their way to winning, what they set out to win. All they have to do is not cross the border. On the other hand...that country looks so tempting, and Vietnam is a traditional enemy we could take them .

 

[La Rouge Beret]

In OTL the Nationalists offered to assist the French with their counterinsurgency against the Viet Minh. Interestingly enough their intermediary was a priest... strange but true. The French were astute enough of the implications of this, as they had been warned by Marshall Lin Biao that his army would enter Vietnam to destroy the Nationalists if this occurred.

So what if the Nationalists to force the hand of the French leaked to the Communists that their offer had been accepted. The PLA operating under an erroneous assumption launches an attack over the border.

An interesting time for foreign intervention as the larger professional Viet Minh units had not come online and did not until a sanctuary was established post formation of the PRC.

My question would be in this scenario, how does PLA involvement play out and would the Americans intervene?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

In 1949 the People's LIberation Army threatended to invade Tonkin in pursuit of the fleeing Nationalist forces if the French soldiers did not disarm the Nationalists.

What if the PLA invaded northern Vietnam... how does the world respond and do the PLA leave?

Oh. Nationalists as in KMT and Chiang, not nationalists as in Ho Chi Minh.

I was very confused as to why Mao wanted the French to disarm Ho!!

 

[Maailmanmatkaaja]

This has some great clusterfuck potential, like anything that happens in SE Asia. If Uncle Ho isn't fully on board with the whole communism thing, and if the Guo Min Dang is willing to help him in his own nationalist endeavors, they could potentially kick the French out, or at least into the south in Cochin-Chine, then set up a redoubt for both the Chinese and Vietnamese Nationalists. Being allied with the GMD could mean aid to the Viet Minh from the Americans. If there are still British forces in Indochina all this could develop into a proto-Suez Crisis with the old colonial powers of France and Britain trying to return to the status quo ante-bellum of French control. The Americans would oppose this on principle, like at Suez, but this time they've also got actual allies on the ground in the form of the GMD and VM. Looming over all of this is Red China, and still at this point, the USSR.

 

[tchizek]

This has some great clusterfuck potential, like anything that happens in SE Asia. If Uncle Ho isn't fully on board with the whole communism thing, and if the Guo Min Dang is willing to help him in his own nationalist endeavors, they could potentially kick the French out, or at least into the south in Cochin-Chine, then set up a redoubt for both the Chinese and Vietnamese Nationalists. Being allied with the GMD could mean aid to the Viet Minh from the Americans. If there are still British forces in Indochina all this could develop into a proto-Suez Crisis with the old colonial powers of France and Britain trying to return to the status quo ante-bellum of French control. The Americans would oppose this on principle, like at Suez, but this time they've also got actual allies on the ground in the form of the GMD and VM. Looming over all of this is Red China, and still at this point, the USSR.

Well it's even worse from the French point of view because unlike the Suez, the British were telling the French "get the hell out and give the country to the Vietnamese". Basically during WWII both the British and the Americans were Allied with the Vietnamese Nationalists, but after the war they felt they needed to back the French to get them into NATO (my interpretation take this with a grain of salt). Add the Chinese Communists attacking the Viet Minh (even by accident) and the whole thing is going to change quite a bit. But as I said above, it would take some really bad moves by the Chinese Communists to have that happen. Maybe a mid-level commander who really hates the Vietnamese?

 

[La Rouge Beret]

I know it is a fairly interesting POD and one that I will explore for my TL.

 

[Kongzilla]

I like this idea.

I'm intrigued by the idea of the Chinese fighting the Western Democracies. With the actual PLA being involved. Would the USSR actually start funneling as many Weapons,Tanks and planes to them as possible to weaken the Americans.

 

[RousseauX]

I like this idea.

I'm intrigued by the idea of the Chinese fighting the Western Democracies. With the actual PLA being involved. Would the USSR actually start funneling as many Weapons,Tanks and planes to them as possible to weaken the Americans.

So...Korea?

 

[Kongzilla]

Korea seems more like a side show. This seems like it would turn into an actual war. And I don't like Mao, It'd be interesting to see the KMT return.