I'm in the mood for proposing you a new scenery, a Chilean analogue (I leave to you all to define how much similar) of what happened in Spain in July 1936. That is: Pinochet's coup, though supported by the CIA, etc. basically is a mixed failure (maybe assuming some other general whose name I do not remember at present is not killed before as per OTL), as some army commander do not join, much of the police supports the government, the leftist parties arm own militias. Just try to deduce the developments (possibile Cuban air bridge for reinforcements, Argentinian, Peruana nd Bolivian involvement, US naval blockade and military reaction, Soviet nuclear saber-rattling...).
Pinochet's coup "fizzles": Chilean civil war
- Thread starter basileus
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Fearless Leader
Donor
Perhaps Che Guevara makes an appearance in Chile?
Where was he at the time?
Bolivia, Peru and Argentina will probably take a hawkish POV and carve up Chile's extremities while the USA will most likely HEAVILY support Pinochet over the Socialists.
Overall a weaker Chile and a stronger Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina.
Where was he at the time?
Bolivia, Peru and Argentina will probably take a hawkish POV and carve up Chile's extremities while the USA will most likely HEAVILY support Pinochet over the Socialists.
Overall a weaker Chile and a stronger Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina.
Hendryk
Banned
Whatever else happens, a likely consequence would be that Allende's government becomes Communist (Soviet/Cuban style) instead of just socialist, as the civil war would radicalize the leftist elements and increase the USSR's influence on the regime. One interesting idea would be to have China sponsor its own dissident Communist faction, leading to infighting within the leftist camp (much as in Spain's own civil war between the orthodox Communists and the other leftist factions). When the dust settles, if Chile hasn't become the same kind of right-wing dictatorship that it was in OTL, it may well be the People's Republic of Chile.
Now, let's be optimistic and assume that dictator-for-life Allende would eventually allow the regime to liberalize in the late 1980s or early 1990s as the Sandinistas did. Who knows, that might convince Castro to follow the trend, assuming clever diplomacy and a US administration that accepts to be flexible on the issue (a big if, I know).
Now, let's be optimistic and assume that dictator-for-life Allende would eventually allow the regime to liberalize in the late 1980s or early 1990s as the Sandinistas did. Who knows, that might convince Castro to follow the trend, assuming clever diplomacy and a US administration that accepts to be flexible on the issue (a big if, I know).
Hmm, so during the Falklands War Chile, now with a military junta OR a leftist dictatorship, attacks Argentina to regain territory lost. Might be some interesting repercussions from that, especially if Peru and/or Bolivia have to worry about the next shoe dropping.
I would suggest the Chile would not likely be in a position to attack Argentina in 1982 to regain lost/disputed territory.
Given in this TL there is a Chinese left agitating and a CIA backed right causing trouble for the Communists' government. So the counter insurgency measures and making sure that Chinese leftist and US backed rightist 'disappear'.
Communist Allende or his equivalent would now be notorious in history for making 30k disappear rather than Pinochet.
The outcome of a conflict seems already written, with US involvement, be it direct or indirect - but, who knows? A hypotetical leftist regime would resemple Spain's Republic or Afghanistan before 1979: Soviet meddling, assorted unpleasanties and authoritanism, competing factions... I have some difficulties, however, in picturing Allende as another Pinochet. To me the idea sounds even offensive. His regime could well have proven repressive, but in a civil war context. It would release its stranglehold over most freedoms much quicker than its OTL counterpart, like it or not its Soviet patrons.
You have my sincerest apologies if I've offended. I did state Allende OR his equivalent. You are right that, to my knowledge, none of the leftist governments in Central/South America were anywhere as repressive as the CIA backed rightist.
I like your idea though of a failed Pinochet coup. It would have forced the United Stated into a much more direct involvement in the political scene in Chile. Chile is no small player in American politics (American in the sense of South American) and the US would have felt the need to bring it back, by hook or crook, back into its sphere of influence.
Maybe a strong left government with Allende in power would have Argentina to moving left of centre as well - via popular momentum -which in my mind means a more internal focus in Argentina and no Falklands War in 1982.
Thoughts?
Well, since someone mentioned the Falklands War, how about Chile denouncing Argentina as being a "capitalist aggressor" and thus contemplate an invasion of Argentina, starting with the extremities (i.e. Antarctica and Tierra del Fuego) and then working its way up from there? Yes, sounds unlikely, but a possibility.
Dan,
I don't think it's as unlikely as it sounds. Argentina and Chile's relations were problematic in the late 70s and Argentina was incredibly jealous of Chile's 'economic miracle' that Pinochet had acieved by changing Chile's economy to a market driven one. Who's to say a leftist government wouldn't have had the same revitalizing effect (though less likely).
As well, Argentina had a bad economy and was suffering pretty badly with the global stagnation.
I see this as potential but not as a result of direct Chilean aggression. More thank likely, in 1982 Argentina purposely causes border incident's with Chile. A left Chile attempts peace negotiations but when these fail they respond with Airstrikes on airstrips and catch the Argentinan Airforce unawares.
However, unless something drastically changes at this point, I now don't think that Argentina would have invaded the Falkland's.
I'll try to find some stats on the Militaries of both nations of the time and see what the capabilities were - but with Chile now a left nation their hardware would have been more likely Warsaw Pact and Soviet gear.
An interesting scenario. I don't think Chile could have pulled it off, whether led by Allende or Pinochet.