It's no secret that the Ottoman Empire in my TL, The Prince of Peace is heading towards extinction of the Ottomans. However, the TL lacks the cliché of dismemberment and colonization by the west. Like all empires, they wax and wane. The Turks have some set backs, but they don't 'collapse,' but rather get a new dynasty out of it. The unspoken agreement involved the Girays of the Crimea taking the throne should the Ottomans go extinct. Easier said than done. The PoP Empire is it's in last kneel I should say, enemies on many sides and unrest above. The Persians are occupying Iraq and Basra; the Habsburgs have finally taken Hungary and Venice has it's eyes on keeping it's Mediterranean territories and expanding them.
The Giray's taking the throne is an awesome idea, but it's not as easy as simply taking an army from bakhchisaray and marching it to Istanbul. Maybe in a map game, but not IRL. The Girays are going need support. As a Russian diplomat said, "If Rome and Byzantium represented two of the three international traditions of imperial legitimacy, the blood of Genghis Khan was the third." The Giray's Genghisid blood give them an aura of legitimacy, but it doesn't stop a strong arm general who has taken an Ottoman Princess as his wife from taking the throne, especially in a world where might literally makes right. The bloodline has some importance in the Muslim world, but doesn't make it or break it.
My mine idea was the Giray's receiving initial support from the Zaporozhian Host in a form of troops and some artillery pieces from the Polish Jagiellons.The Crimean Khans are no buds with Poland, but not awful enemies. You may see some particularly adventurous Polish captains join up with their troops, but I'd see them as a very small part of the Giray's forces. These offers and aid form the Giray's first pillar of support. It's outside the regime, but it's a start. They may even be able to coax aid out of the some of the great Cossack magnates.
With a mostly typical Crimean Army levied in traditional means, augmented by the Cossacks and Polish guns, we'd see them set out in the spring. Giray's second pillar of support that is actually within the empire comes from the princes of the Danube, who allow him access to cross over into Bulgaria. The Princes basically agree to billet these troops and even offer limited marital support. Again like the Poles, small groups of Romanians and Romanian captains may join up, but not in substantial numbers, and the aid of the Danubian Princes mostly offer support through right of passage, food, and medical aid. In return? Giray agrees to loosen the noose on the Danube Principalities, either through a) massive reduction in tribute requiems and the hosting of troops, or b) independence. That is, independence in the 16th sense. No tribute. No occupational forces. Unlikely, but not impossible.
Giray's invasion forces cross into Moldavia in an ATL Pruth River Campaign--where despite fewer troops and fewer guns, they manage to score a decisive victory with relatively few loses for themselves and very high ones for the Turks. At this point, the door into Wallachia and Bulgaria is open, and the Giray's can probably rely upon the Danubian Princes to supply auxiliary troops into his campaign. It's at this time that Giray begins to fixate upon his goals as Sultan; ruling a steppe Khanate is much different, and he can't expect to just raid and loot and expect to get away with it. Things within the empire have been to hell and back and they'll need time to recover. It also helps that during his campaign in Moldavia that Giray almost completely obliterates the Janissary corps.
Another pillar of support comes from outside the empire, from Venice and Genoa, but especially Genoa. This third pillar of support is almost strictly monetary. As Giray moves deeper into the empire, he'll likely receive this support in return to trade concessions, returnng the Aegean Islands seized in the 1560s, and even recognizing the Venetian occupation of Morea. It's all about the big picture. Giray's army becomes more potent when his managed to take say, Thessaloniki and has a direct line to shipments of Venetian gold, but also Venetian artillery and guns.
By time the Girays have moved into the Balkans, they might just be initially seek as foreign invaders intent to pillage and leave. Especially given all the support he's received from Christians. Danube Princes, the Poles, Venetians, ect. One of Giray's first proclamations is that under him, the devirsme will be abolished. No longer will sons be plucked up from their mothers and villages, trained to be skilled killers. Instead, Giray wishes to build up a new force. While it would not be one bound by language given how multi ethnic the Ottoman Empire is, it would probably be based upon language (ie. Turkish dialects) or religion (Islam; that is, native Muslims, not those converted into the Janissary corps). The abolition of the Janissaries would easily make the South Slavs a pillar of support for the regime.
The goal is to make the Giray's quite different from the Ottomans, not merely Ottomans with a different name. They will draw highly from the political traditions of the steppe. So long as they have a power base, I think they can do that. External forces aside, if they can co-opt the South Slavs, Anatolian Turks, the Albanians, plus other minorities inside the empire (Druze, Maronites, ect), they'll have a base to last.
What sort of reforms can they can peruse that might make a break from the Ottomans? The Ottomans built up their "Byzantine" heritage to an extent, I expect that to fall to the way side. Besides abolishing the Janissary Corps and the collection, I wonder if they could abolish the millet system all together? I imagine that wouldn't be as popular as doing away with the Janissaries, but it's a thought. If you remove the millets, it makes justice all emanate from one source, rather than the heads. Of course, ir'd force a unitary law system (and in the 17th century Islamic World, it's definitely be Islamic jurisprudence... to the decimation of Christians, Jews, and their hereto independent justice systems).
What do you think? Enough pillars to take control of the empire? What changes can they introduce beyond the end of the Janissary Corps and it's practical enslavement? My friend mentioned with Crimean Army and the Cossacks, most would go home afterwards, rather than stay. I tend to agree But could we see a small host be settled/created along the Danube. We could see estates vacated and opened up by landlords who have fled, or maybe supported the wrong side. A sprinkling of Crimean Tartar landlords in Bulgaria and Thrace?
Suggestions and critique welcome.