Pillars of Support in a Giray led Ottoman Empire

It's no secret that the Ottoman Empire in my TL, The Prince of Peace is heading towards extinction of the Ottomans. However, the TL lacks the cliché of dismemberment and colonization by the west. Like all empires, they wax and wane. The Turks have some set backs, but they don't 'collapse,' but rather get a new dynasty out of it. The unspoken agreement involved the Girays of the Crimea taking the throne should the Ottomans go extinct. Easier said than done. The PoP Empire is it's in last kneel I should say, enemies on many sides and unrest above. The Persians are occupying Iraq and Basra; the Habsburgs have finally taken Hungary and Venice has it's eyes on keeping it's Mediterranean territories and expanding them.

The Giray's taking the throne is an awesome idea, but it's not as easy as simply taking an army from bakhchisaray and marching it to Istanbul. Maybe in a map game, but not IRL. The Girays are going need support. As a Russian diplomat said, "If Rome and Byzantium represented two of the three international traditions of imperial legitimacy, the blood of Genghis Khan was the third." The Giray's Genghisid blood give them an aura of legitimacy, but it doesn't stop a strong arm general who has taken an Ottoman Princess as his wife from taking the throne, especially in a world where might literally makes right. The bloodline has some importance in the Muslim world, but doesn't make it or break it.

My mine idea was the Giray's receiving initial support from the Zaporozhian Host in a form of troops and some artillery pieces from the Polish Jagiellons.The Crimean Khans are no buds with Poland, but not awful enemies. You may see some particularly adventurous Polish captains join up with their troops, but I'd see them as a very small part of the Giray's forces. These offers and aid form the Giray's first pillar of support. It's outside the regime, but it's a start. They may even be able to coax aid out of the some of the great Cossack magnates.

With a mostly typical Crimean Army levied in traditional means, augmented by the Cossacks and Polish guns, we'd see them set out in the spring. Giray's second pillar of support that is actually within the empire comes from the princes of the Danube, who allow him access to cross over into Bulgaria. The Princes basically agree to billet these troops and even offer limited marital support. Again like the Poles, small groups of Romanians and Romanian captains may join up, but not in substantial numbers, and the aid of the Danubian Princes mostly offer support through right of passage, food, and medical aid. In return? Giray agrees to loosen the noose on the Danube Principalities, either through a) massive reduction in tribute requiems and the hosting of troops, or b) independence. That is, independence in the 16th sense. No tribute. No occupational forces. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Giray's invasion forces cross into Moldavia in an ATL Pruth River Campaign--where despite fewer troops and fewer guns, they manage to score a decisive victory with relatively few loses for themselves and very high ones for the Turks. At this point, the door into Wallachia and Bulgaria is open, and the Giray's can probably rely upon the Danubian Princes to supply auxiliary troops into his campaign. It's at this time that Giray begins to fixate upon his goals as Sultan; ruling a steppe Khanate is much different, and he can't expect to just raid and loot and expect to get away with it. Things within the empire have been to hell and back and they'll need time to recover. It also helps that during his campaign in Moldavia that Giray almost completely obliterates the Janissary corps.

Another pillar of support comes from outside the empire, from Venice and Genoa, but especially Genoa. This third pillar of support is almost strictly monetary. As Giray moves deeper into the empire, he'll likely receive this support in return to trade concessions, returnng the Aegean Islands seized in the 1560s, and even recognizing the Venetian occupation of Morea. It's all about the big picture. Giray's army becomes more potent when his managed to take say, Thessaloniki and has a direct line to shipments of Venetian gold, but also Venetian artillery and guns.

By time the Girays have moved into the Balkans, they might just be initially seek as foreign invaders intent to pillage and leave. Especially given all the support he's received from Christians. Danube Princes, the Poles, Venetians, ect. One of Giray's first proclamations is that under him, the devirsme will be abolished. No longer will sons be plucked up from their mothers and villages, trained to be skilled killers. Instead, Giray wishes to build up a new force. While it would not be one bound by language given how multi ethnic the Ottoman Empire is, it would probably be based upon language (ie. Turkish dialects) or religion (Islam; that is, native Muslims, not those converted into the Janissary corps). The abolition of the Janissaries would easily make the South Slavs a pillar of support for the regime.

The goal is to make the Giray's quite different from the Ottomans, not merely Ottomans with a different name. They will draw highly from the political traditions of the steppe. So long as they have a power base, I think they can do that. External forces aside, if they can co-opt the South Slavs, Anatolian Turks, the Albanians, plus other minorities inside the empire (Druze, Maronites, ect), they'll have a base to last.

What sort of reforms can they can peruse that might make a break from the Ottomans? The Ottomans built up their "Byzantine" heritage to an extent, I expect that to fall to the way side. Besides abolishing the Janissary Corps and the collection, I wonder if they could abolish the millet system all together? I imagine that wouldn't be as popular as doing away with the Janissaries, but it's a thought. If you remove the millets, it makes justice all emanate from one source, rather than the heads. Of course, ir'd force a unitary law system (and in the 17th century Islamic World, it's definitely be Islamic jurisprudence... to the decimation of Christians, Jews, and their hereto independent justice systems).


What do you think? Enough pillars to take control of the empire? What changes can they introduce beyond the end of the Janissary Corps and it's practical enslavement? My friend mentioned with Crimean Army and the Cossacks, most would go home afterwards, rather than stay. I tend to agree But could we see a small host be settled/created along the Danube. We could see estates vacated and opened up by landlords who have fled, or maybe supported the wrong side. A sprinkling of Crimean Tartar landlords in Bulgaria and Thrace?

Suggestions and critique welcome.
 
How much support from the Ottoman political class would the Giray Khans have?

If there was an agreement that the Girays would inherit the Ottoman throne should the dynasty go extinct, there might not necessarily need to be an invasion in the first place. James VI of Scotland did not need to invade England to succeed Elizabeth.

Of course, as you said, there's the possibility of an Ottoman general with a wife from the dynasty (or some member of the nobility who is of Ottoman descent from the female line) taking power in spite of the Khans.

You suggested the Girays would reject the more Byzantine elements of the system--if the new Giray Sultan explicitly says this or even hints at it, that might be enough to provoke shenanigans by those in the Ottoman government opposed to the new dynasty.
 
The scenario you're describing sounds really interesting, though.

Have you considering making it into a novel as opposed to simply a part of a larger TL? It could be something really interesting that stands on its own. And at one point, the Ottoman dynasty was reduced to one male, so that's a POD there. Or set up an earlier scenario where maybe a plague in Istanbul kills most of the Ottoman men and political intrigue takes care of the rest.

(Say all but two or three of the sons of the old Sultan are killed and all three set out for Constantinople and all three get ambushed and murdered on the way in by the supporters of the others.)

You could have a serious cast of thousands thing going--some young concubine from the old Sultan's harem has to avoid the attentions of the usurper general who's descended from the old sultan's aunt or something (if the Giray Khan is the protagonist, the usurper can be a big jerk) and ends up serving as a spy for the Giray Khan? When she and the Giray Khan meet, you can have some epic love story.

Meanwhile, the Khan and his supporters are marching down the western rim of the Black Sea gathering support as they go and making all kinds of political deals. In the Italian courts, there're squabbles going about who can give them the best trade deals...
 
DID Ottoman princesses marry?

I would think that if there is an agreement for the Giray to take the throne, then as long as the recipient can present himself in Istanbul in sufficient time and sufficient style he has a good start.

I would think that heading to the Bosphorus by ship is the most sensible means, though yes send his army the long way to back up his claims should there be meaningful opposition

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
How much support from the Ottoman political class would the Giray Khans have?

If there was an agreement that the Girays would inherit the Ottoman throne should the dynasty go extinct, there might not necessarily need to be an invasion in the first place. James VI of Scotland did not need to invade England to succeed Elizabeth.

Of course, as you said, there's the possibility of an Ottoman general with a wife from the dynasty (or some member of the nobility who is of Ottoman descent from the female line) taking power in spite of the Khans.

You suggested the Girays would reject the more Byzantine elements of the system--if the new Giray Sultan explicitly says this or even hints at it, that might be enough to provoke shenanigans by those in the Ottoman government opposed to the new dynasty.

I'm actually unsure. It was an unspoken agreement agreed upon in the late 15th century IIRC, but never put into action. So I'm not sure if he could just take it. Given how chaotic things in the empire could get at times, I imagine he could have to fight. Many in the political class may not be fond of a future Sultan hailing from the steppes.

As for their rejection of Byzantine notions, that's my own musings. They may, they may not. But I'd like them to be more than Ottomans cut from a different cloak. Of course, being in Constantinople does mean a degree of assimilation of course, but they do have the blood of Genghis Khan and the political steppe on their side to make some changes, The abolition of the Janissary are one thing, which would be insanely popular amongst the South Slav Christians. Dismantling the millet would certainly be less so, and would lose him support and make enemies.

As for making a novel, not really. :eek: Afraid I don't have much knowledge of the Ottoman Empire, and while it'd be interesting, it'd need tweaks. My idea takes part of my larger TL as you said, some novel form would need tweaks from OTL to make it understandable. It'd all be horribly interesting though -- could even be a series of books. The decline of the empire it's self is almost a black comedy all in it's own.

DID Ottoman princesses marry?

I would think that if there is an agreement for the Giray to take the throne, then as long as the recipient can present himself in Istanbul in sufficient time and sufficient style he has a good start.

I would think that heading to the Bosphorus by ship is the most sensible means, though yes send his army the long way to back up his claims should there be meaningful opposition

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Not much in the 19th century, say, but yes, they did. Unlike European Princesses though, it was never other princes. Equality was never a matter, so these Ottoman Princesses often married important government ministers and military men. Plenty of Grand Viziers married Ottoman Princesses, for instance.

I thought of the whole taking a ship to Istanbul, but easier said than done. The Crimean Khanate didn't really have a navy, let alone one able to take a force from Bakhchisaray. Despite the agreement, it was completely unspoken, so I think the Khan would have to fight for his throne. James VI had Cecil on his end working to secure his succession. Here...you have a much less than secure transfer of power. Even if some ministers agree to support him, I think he'd have enough enemies that a show of force is necessary.
 
Another question -- I figured I'd post here rather than create a new thread. In the midst of the succession crisis, the Venetians are doing their own meddling in Morea from Modoni (Methoni) and end up occupying Mystras and eventually the whole of the Morea with the aid of the Maniots, chaffing under a particularly brutal governor who is a crony of the Grand Vizier .

The Venetians and later Genoese aid Giray as stated earlier through generous lines of credit to help inject some currency into Giray's movement, given that steppe khanates aren't well known for being awash in hard currency. For Venice, it's a defacto legitimization of their occupation of Morea, where they had considerable economic clout and were welcomed by the Maniots and Himariotes, who were almost always in contact in the west. Morea actually had considerable autonomy, but in this situation we see them use the Venetians to leverage further autonomy and protection from Venice.

The Maniots had a history of seeking foreign benefactors, particularly after 1570 when they lost their autonomy. In 1603, the Maniots approached Pope Clement VIII, who had recently taken up the cross. Clement died two years later, and the Maniots began to seek a new champion, centering their attention on the King of Spain, Philip III. They urged him to land his army at Porto Kagio and promised to join him with 15,000 armed men as well as 80,000 other Peloponnesians. The Maniots also sent envoys to some major powers of the Mediterranean, as for example the Republic of Venice, the Kingdom of France, the Republic of Genoa, the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, and once again Spain. These states were interested and sent several expeditionary forces to Mani, but with the exception of a Spanish expedition that sacked Passavas they all failed to achieve anything.

The Maniots IOTL found a champion in Charles Gonzaga, the Duke of Mantua and Nevers who claimed descendant from the Byzantine Emperor Andronicus II Palaeologus through his grandmother, who was of the line of Theodore I of Montferrat, although it amounted to nothing.

Part of the Giray's concessions to the Genoese and Venice include the restoration of Mediterranean territories that had been lost in the 1560s. Within PoP, Venice is still a major eastern Mediterranean power, holding Crete and Cyprus, along with Corfu. The addition of Morea adds an extra layer to their possessions, and the Giray's agree to return the so-called Duchy of the Archepelego (The Duchy of "Naxos") to Venice as well, while the Lordship of Chios is returned to Genoa. Especially for Venice, I can see them restoring the Crispos (the reigning dynasty of Naxos) to power under Venetian tutelage; perhaps an heiress who is married off to a suitable Italian prince, such as a son of the Duke of Tuscany. The same goes for Chios. Morea is definitely interesting, as it'd be under Venetian protection, but perhaps the Maniots press for a sovereign of their own? The Palagoloi of Montferrat are still around, and it'd be quite interesting. A Prince of Morea under Venetian tutelage?

Keep in mind, these neo-Latin estates would largely tributaries of Venice (and in the case of Chios, Genoa). They are tiny, dependent upon the Giray's goodwill, of the goodwill of their Italian benefactors, and they aren't independent at all (IE: they can't really decide their own fates), and Giray is clearly buying time, as he'll certainly seize them back when in a stronger position. But it'd definitely make the late 16th century in the med a bit more colorful. Might the Venetians even go so far as attempt to take back Rhodes so that the Knights can return there? Or maybe they had it over to Order of St. Stephen? Hell, with all these tiny islands, there's no telling what could happen. I could see the Lord of Chios being heirless and simply willing the land to St. Stephen. It's a little late in the game for the Knights of Malta to make a comeback from Rhodes, but even a temporary return would be quite a shock and alter their way of thinking.
 
Agreed, but it is at least (nominally) Christian territory. All the lands in Iraq will eventually be reconquered and the Mamluks cut down in Egypt, where they've sort of risen with a Sultan of their own and have caused quite a mess in the Levant. North Africa never fell to the Turks IATL, but left to their own devices, although around this time I have Algiers and Tunis uniting under a tribe out of the desert, the Zaranids who are completely ATL, probably Berbers or (unlikely) Tuareg. Plus, Giray is obviously buying time. I'd think the idea of trading away territory (unimportant territory at that) to reconquer the more juicy bits would be pretty important to them.
 
My problem with not going by ship is that he's allowing time for someone else to stake their claim and build up support. As for not having a navy, I'm sure he could hire someone else's ship - a merchantman for example, from another country.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Ah, and that perhaps could bring in the Genoa and/or Venice to that as well. Perhaps, in return for the Ottomans recognizing their control over the Morea.
 
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