Pierre Trudeau doesn't walk in the snow?

On 28 February 1984, long-time Canadian PM Pierre Trudeau went for a contemplative "walk in the snow" to think about his future in office. The next day, he announced publicly his plans to stand down. John Turner succeeded him as PM in June, and then was blown out of the water by the Progressive Conservative landslide in September 1984. The Liberals collapsed down to just 40 seats.

What if Trudeau had decided to fight one more campaign?
 
I think he still woulda lost anyway, as memories of the early 80s recession were still fresh, Alberta was ticked off about the NEP, Quebec was mad about the Consitution, PET himself was increasingly viewed as a dilettante pursuing quixotic peace missions overseas and flipping the middle-finger to angry citizens back home, and the Tories had a new, charismatic young leader who was still in his honeymoon mode by September '84.

What might make a difference is if PET staying on butterflies away those patronage appointments that he ordered Turner to make, and which Mulroney hammered on about in the election campaign("You had an option, sir"). I'd imagine that the appointments needed to be made one way or another, though would Trudeau have been so blatant with the nepotism if he hadn't been on his way out? Either way, I think Mulroney is still headed for a majority, large or small.
 
But the curious thing, Reagan largely received credit for coming out of '82 recession, and won big Nov. '84

That's true, and I actually hesitated to say that the recession was a factor in 1984, because it had ended quite a while earlier.

But I also remember Mulroney attacking the Liberals record on employment in the House Of Commons, and promising "Jobs, jobs, jobs!" on the campaign trail. I'd be interested to hear other Canadians' recollections of this period.
 
I think he still woulda lost anyway, as memories of the early 80s recession were still fresh, Alberta was ticked off about the NEP, Quebec was mad about the Consitution, PET himself was increasingly viewed as a dilettante pursuing quixotic peace missions overseas and flipping the middle-finger to angry citizens back home, and the Tories had a new, charismatic young leader who was still in his honeymoon mode by September '84.

All very compelling factors that do seem to point to a big win for the PCs. I do wonder how many seats PET would have saved - or lost - in the election that followed.

A fellow traveller on the topic but not an expert. Does anybody know why he stayed on for another four years after the 1984 election? He’d already rescinded one resignation/retirement.
 
All very compelling factors that do seem to point to a big win for the PCs. I do wonder how many seats PET would have saved - or lost - in the election that followed.

A fellow traveller on the topic but not an expert. Does anybody know why he stayed on for another four years after the 1984 election? He’d already rescinded one resignation/retirement.

Who does "he" refer to in the bolded sentences?
 
. . . hesitated to say that the recession was a factor in 1984, because it had ended quite a while earlier. . .
I think at the end of the day, most people do believe in bleeding the patient.

Meaning, because there was high unemployment, like 10.8 % in the United States for Nov. ‘82, yes, really!, please see
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/UNRATE.txt
most people (to the extent they think about it at all) think this caused lower inflation which in turn caused a better overall economy,

or more vaguely, people think economic hard times and “strong” leadership is what caused the economic good times.

They clean up the narrative, a lot!

————-

Just for the record, I believe in medium, non-abrupt changes to the economy.

* both Canada and the U.S. largely ride with world economy
 
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PET - and a typo! I meant 1980, of course.

Okay, so you're asking why he stayed for four years after winning in 1980? Well, having won the election, it's kind of the traditional thing to do, to serve out a term roughly around four years.

If you mean he could have resigned earlier to give the Liberals time to recover from his unpopularity, I'm not sure why he didn't take that step, except again, it's kind of just not done, to quit that early into a mandate. Though as far as his political vision went, he probably could have left the job right after the Constitution was repatriated in '82, since there really wasn't much else on his agenda to fulfill.

A somewhat darker interpretation would be that Trudeau really didn't care whether or not he hurt the Liberals' prospects in '84, since it is quite well-known that he did NOT like John Turner. And his son Justin, in speaking French to Quebeckers during the 2015 election campaign, let slip that he thought Canada was best when governed by Quebeckers, specifically mentioning Mulroney among the supposedly great PMs from that province. Though I think that if Trudeau sr. was indifferent to the Liberals' well-being at at that time, it was because he didn't like Turner, not because he wanted a fellow Quebecker to win: PET despised Quebec nationalism, and was deeply hostile to the separatists and quasi-separatists that Mulroney had allied himself with.

Basically, though, I suspect Trudeau wanted the Liberals to win in '84, but tradition and ego probably stopped him from quitting earlier.
 
Well that was a time when governments in Canada could call elections anytime they wanted too. This mandated election dates didn't come into being until Steven Harper's Majority Minority Government in 2007 mandated this into effect .

Another thing that Affected His son Justin Trudeau's Second Term (2019) was Alberta's distrust of His governments policy's of the oil & gas Sector (carbon tax etc). They saw his policy's as return of the National Energy Program fiasco .

The National Energy Program was a way for Canada to reduce its dependence on foreign oil and to domestically be dependent on Canada's natural resources (oil Etc) Alberta saw it as away for the Federal government to redistribute Alberta's wealth and finance it's Newly created Petro-Canada oil company . It didn't help that the government was imposing a 25 % ownership on all oil and gas discovery's made in Canada and that the price of oil was to be sold at a lower price then what the world market price was

This was a time when Middle East was experiencing difficulties (Iran ) USA producers were were in a decline and importing oil which limited oil supplies further . ( Info from Canadian encyclopedia Website )
 
Well that was a time when governments in Canada could call elections anytime they wanted too. This mandated election dates didn't come into being until Steven Harper's Majority Minority Government in 2007 mandated this into effect .

Another thing that Affected His son Justin Trudeau's Second Term (2019) was Alberta's distrust of His governments policy's of the oil & gas Sector (carbon tax etc). They saw his policy's as return of the National Energy Program fiasco .

The National Energy Program was a way for Canada to reduce its dependence on foreign oil and to domestically be dependent on Canada's natural resources (oil Etc) Alberta saw it as away for the Federal government to redistribute Alberta's wealth and finance it's Newly created Petro-Canada oil company . It didn't help that the government was imposing a 25 % ownership on all oil and gas discovery's made in Canada and that the price of oil was to be sold at a lower price then what the world market price was

This was a time when Middle East was experiencing difficulties (Iran ) USA producers were were in a decline and importing oil which limited oil supplies further . ( Info from Canadian encyclopedia Website )

A joke from the early 80s...

Q: What does Petro-Canada stand for?

A: Pierre Elliot Trudeau Rips Off Canada.

And bonus points for anyone who can complete the bumper sticker "Let the eastern bastards________________"
 
But the curious thing, Reagan largely received credit for coming out of '82 recession, and won big Nov. '84

True, though Trudeau's situation was very different from Reagan's. By 1984 he'd been PM for 15 years and had long ago lost his widespread appeal. Not only was Trudeau less popular than before, but so were the Liberals who lost badly in 1984.

Reagan in contrast had only been President for 3 years and he still maintained the star quality that made him broadly popular. Further, unlike Trudeau his re-election didn't depend on the popularity of his party, which actually lost seats in the Senate (and made only 16 gains in the House). After the presidencies of LBJ, Nixon, Ford, and Carter had all ended in shame or failure, voters were reluctant to change course.
 
. . . By 1984 he'd been PM for 15 years and had long ago lost his widespread appeal. Not only was Trudeau less popular than before, but so were the Liberals who lost badly in 1984. . .
I generally agree with the rule of thumb, 10 years for a chief executive.
 
Bingo! Was that just a lucky guess, or had you heard it before? I vaguely recall reading that a similar phrase was bandied about during some dispute over resources in the US.
I remember something similar being said in the U.S. around either the second “Energy Crisis” (1979) or the Savings & Loan “Crisis” (1990). I think, for there’s more than a few colorful crises here in my U.S. :openedeyewink:

The 1986 drop in oil prices was a crisis for my state of Texas, but a good thing for non-oil producing states, countries, and regions! :love:
 
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