Actually some Nationalists’ leaders didn’t plan to restore monarchy, like Emilio Mola:
In a memorandum dated 5 June 1936, Mola envisioned a "republican dictatorship" based on the Portuguese model. The initial government would consist of a "directory" that would oversee a semi-pluralist but authoritarian state. According to Mola: "The Directory will guarantee no change in the republican regime during its administration, with no change in any worker claims that have been legally obtained" but would "create a strong and disciplined state".[4] The 1931 constitution would be suspended and new elections would be held. Certain liberal elements, such as separation of church and state and freedom of worship, were to be maintained. Agrarian issues were to be resolved by regional commissions with the aim of developing small holdings, but allowing for collective cultivation in some circumstances.[5]
Then we have consider TL-191 Spain was impacted when Japan attacked it in early 1900s. So, that’s my idea about the events:
- the young, liberal King Alfonse XII died in 1885 by dysentery. Queen Consort Maria Cristina became Queen Regent for their unborn son Alfonse XIII.
- in 1902 Alfonse XIII is crowned as King but shortly after Japan attacks Philippines and Guam. The Spanish Fleet is disastrously defeated. The Kingdom is in full turmoil, troops violently represse protests and then an anarchist, Gaetano Bresci, shoot to Alfonse to vindicate them.
- his sister Maria is the new Monarch of Spain but she died in 1904 due childbirth. Her three-years-old son Alfonse XIV is the new King but his father Carlos of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, a Royal Inspector of Army, is made Regent.
- in 1917 Alfonse XIV is crowned as new King. After years of rigid semi-militar leadership, the new monarch pushes to relax autocratic rules. He takes also a pro-German view to gain diplomatic support to replace definitely France in Morocco.
- after post-First Great War turmoil causes instability and strikes in Spain, Alfonse XIV choose to approve a full democratic government, nominating a coalition of liberals and moderate socialists. As young King, many are tending to consider power abuses a responsibility of court’s aristocrats and his father, the old regent, so the anti-monarchy sentiment is weaker.
- after the 1929 Crash, economic and political instability explodes while parliamentary democracy proves hard to manage. While Right and Left fight each other, the King proves unable to solve the political crisis but also unwilling to disband the parliament and rule by decree as the authoritarian hardliners want.
- after the King refuses to crack down a general strike and persists in negotiations with the center-left to bring stability to Spain, Mola and others hardliners came to the conclusion that Alfonse is to weak to “do his duty and save the country”. The plotters have various view about the future of Spain (Mola prefers Republican Dictatorship option, while others call to simply replace the “foreign” Bourbon-Two Sicilies line with the more conservative Carlist one) but agree to overthrow the current government and forma militar junta (this is similar to OTL Nationalist, as Mola was pro-Republic while Sanjuro was pro-Monarchy).
- then plotters launch their coup with Entente support and start the civil war between Nationalists and Monarchists.
In a memorandum dated 5 June 1936, Mola envisioned a "republican dictatorship" based on the Portuguese model. The initial government would consist of a "directory" that would oversee a semi-pluralist but authoritarian state. According to Mola: "The Directory will guarantee no change in the republican regime during its administration, with no change in any worker claims that have been legally obtained" but would "create a strong and disciplined state".[4] The 1931 constitution would be suspended and new elections would be held. Certain liberal elements, such as separation of church and state and freedom of worship, were to be maintained. Agrarian issues were to be resolved by regional commissions with the aim of developing small holdings, but allowing for collective cultivation in some circumstances.[5]
Then we have consider TL-191 Spain was impacted when Japan attacked it in early 1900s. So, that’s my idea about the events:
- the young, liberal King Alfonse XII died in 1885 by dysentery. Queen Consort Maria Cristina became Queen Regent for their unborn son Alfonse XIII.
- in 1902 Alfonse XIII is crowned as King but shortly after Japan attacks Philippines and Guam. The Spanish Fleet is disastrously defeated. The Kingdom is in full turmoil, troops violently represse protests and then an anarchist, Gaetano Bresci, shoot to Alfonse to vindicate them.
- his sister Maria is the new Monarch of Spain but she died in 1904 due childbirth. Her three-years-old son Alfonse XIV is the new King but his father Carlos of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, a Royal Inspector of Army, is made Regent.
- in 1917 Alfonse XIV is crowned as new King. After years of rigid semi-militar leadership, the new monarch pushes to relax autocratic rules. He takes also a pro-German view to gain diplomatic support to replace definitely France in Morocco.
- after post-First Great War turmoil causes instability and strikes in Spain, Alfonse XIV choose to approve a full democratic government, nominating a coalition of liberals and moderate socialists. As young King, many are tending to consider power abuses a responsibility of court’s aristocrats and his father, the old regent, so the anti-monarchy sentiment is weaker.
- after the 1929 Crash, economic and political instability explodes while parliamentary democracy proves hard to manage. While Right and Left fight each other, the King proves unable to solve the political crisis but also unwilling to disband the parliament and rule by decree as the authoritarian hardliners want.
- after the King refuses to crack down a general strike and persists in negotiations with the center-left to bring stability to Spain, Mola and others hardliners came to the conclusion that Alfonse is to weak to “do his duty and save the country”. The plotters have various view about the future of Spain (Mola prefers Republican Dictatorship option, while others call to simply replace the “foreign” Bourbon-Two Sicilies line with the more conservative Carlist one) but agree to overthrow the current government and forma militar junta (this is similar to OTL Nationalist, as Mola was pro-Republic while Sanjuro was pro-Monarchy).
- then plotters launch their coup with Entente support and start the civil war between Nationalists and Monarchists.