Phoney war resumed after June 1940

Daniels

Banned
What if Hitler after the fall of France left Britain alone and conserved the strenght of the German army and air force for the coming struggle in the East? This means: There is no BoB and no bombing of Britain. Until February 1941 when the first German units arrive in North Africa the BotA and the occasional Bomber Command raid into Germany are the only hostile actions between Britain and the Reich. So basically things return to what they have been in the October 1939-March 1940 period.

What are the political consequences? If there is no threat of invasion and no attack against British cities will Churchill be as sucessfull as OTL? Will the Americans be as ready as OTL to supply a Britain which is under no direct threat of attack? And what are the military consequences? The BoB and other operations against Britain cost the LW over 4000 aircraft in the July 1940 - May 1941 period. How much more favourable will the results of Barbarossa be if the Germans can more than double their OTL Barbarossa airforce?
 
I'm guessing this includes the German navy ceasing submarine and surface raids in the Atlantic? That takes a enormous degree of pressure off Britain & greatly reduces the aid required from the US. No need to trade naval bases for destroyers, to purchase aircraft & other weapons, or purchase extra material to replace sunken cargos.

There is still the problem of the Italians at war with the British. Would Mussolini at all be persuaded to sit back and not take any action while the British blockade increasingly damages Italys economy daily? Italy gained nothing of imeadiate economic significance to make up for falling under the blockade. My guess is MUssolini would still organize a invasion of Egypt in a effort to pressure the Brits into a cease fire. The alternative would be to make diplomatic inquires about a seperate peace, but I am unsure that would fit Mussolinis character.

If Hitler is willing not to pressure the British does he also take French expectations of peace treaty negotiations seriously? The French by and large had thought the Armistice agreements temporary and negotiations for a permanent peace would start before the end of the year. They were nonplussed & confused when their inquiries about starting negotiations went unanswered. If in this alternate Germanys western front is to be made secure by establsihing a truly neutral France the implications are enormous.
 
The OP does say that the Battle of the Atlantic continues. If Germany had ceased unrestricted warfare against trade there might have been the time and willpower to modernise UK shipyards and techniques. Of course, with no battle of Britain there might have been less desire for revenge bombing raids against Germany, and more Bombers may have been diverted to Coastal Command which may have reduced losses to Uboats.
 
I am surprised this has never been brought up before. Doing this and placing the German economy on a full war footing in September 1939 will create a huge difference in Russia. Far more than the various other nebulous possibilities like Sealion or a Mediterranean strategy ever will. Both are almost impossible to pull off. Preserving the Luftwaffe, however, well that could have an enormous impact. All it requires is patience. sadly, that was in short supply from both Goering and Hitler.
 

Daniels

Banned
Well here my thoughs:

1. The situation for Britain will be actually worse than OTL. There will be no threat of invasion that will force unity upon the nation, meaning that the military and population is less willing to fight. Churchill will have a much harder time than OTL in political terms, no heroic "we will fight them on the beaches" no " never before in history have so many been saved by so few" speeches. It would be more difficult to justify the bombing of German cities without the precedence of British cities bombed by the Luftwaffe. After half a year Churchill might bee seen as a crazy warmonger and might be confronted with severe difficulties to stay in office.

2. Far less support from the US and most likely no LL. US strategy was give the UK weapons so that they keep the Germans busy so that we can rearm. With no real war against the Germans it is difficult to see that Cash&Carry would have been transcended by Lend-Lease.

3. A disaster for the Soviets. The Germans could thrown some 6000-7000 aircraft against them instead of the actual 3000 + a LOT of pilots and fuel would have been conserved. This means that Soviet losses in 1941 are much higher, even Moscow might fall and the prospect for 1942 would have been much worse for the USSR than OTL.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Churchill would bend all his considerable energies to stirring things up. IOTL, it was a pinprick bombing raid on Berlin (fifty or so bombers only) that caused Hitler to order all-out bombing of London during the Battle of Britain. Without having to divert its focus on the ports of northern France, Bomber Command will be able to launch more powerful raids on German cities. Hitler being Hitler, he will turn the Luftwaffe against Britain in retaliation. We can assume that the Royal Navy and the Commandos will be more active as well.
 
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