Also, HOW you get the 'no Japanese invasion' makes a huge difference.
One thing that is often not mentioned is that even without the oil embargo, Japan was in deep trouble.
1) she was rapidly running out of hard currency, so she wouldn't have been able to BUY that oil soon.
2) even if ASBs fill the Japanese treasury with dollars, much of the cargo fleet carrying stuff to japan was foreign owned, including oil tankers. With the war in Europe and the desperate straits the European powers were in for shipping, most of that would have been pulled out of the Japan trade.
The oil embargo hastened the matter, and made it an acute crisis rather than a chronic one, but didn't change the underlying real problems.